But he didn’t pick Hawaii. The line is relatively sharp as I have Hawaii winning by about 9 points with a score in the mid 70’s. Other forecasts have Hawaii winning by as many as 11 points. A less sophisticated, more average line gives Hawaii a 7 to 8 point nod. Not surprisingly, this line opened around 7 and has moved toward my forecast of 9 points to about 8.5.
Before moving upward the line ticked downward. I believe this was done in manipulation in order to gain a better number to hit the favorite. At 8.5 we may have gone too far.
So as the line has sharpened and those bettors have gotten their share of the favorite there has also been steam and hype, yet we are only at -8.5.
The reason those manipulators were willing to take only a half point off of 7 to 6.5 before pounding upward was because they knew they had a small window. I believe my line is sharp at 9 points and that those groups know it.
At - 8.5 some influential groups will no longer be interested and these bettors are going to pass. Yet the public still wants a piece of Hawaii. This line doesn’t move upward at this point, I believe based on other metrics, that the books like the action they are getting.
In an appreciation for the tight window I recognize and see in the market, I have countered the late steam and hype movements and have picked up California State Long Beach 49ers +8.5 (-107) over Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
Good Luck.
Before moving upward the line ticked downward. I believe this was done in manipulation in order to gain a better number to hit the favorite. At 8.5 we may have gone too far.
So as the line has sharpened and those bettors have gotten their share of the favorite there has also been steam and hype, yet we are only at -8.5.
The reason those manipulators were willing to take only a half point off of 7 to 6.5 before pounding upward was because they knew they had a small window. I believe my line is sharp at 9 points and that those groups know it.
At - 8.5 some influential groups will no longer be interested and these bettors are going to pass. Yet the public still wants a piece of Hawaii. This line doesn’t move upward at this point, I believe based on other metrics, that the books like the action they are getting.
In an appreciation for the tight window I recognize and see in the market, I have countered the late steam and hype movements and have picked up California State Long Beach 49ers +8.5 (-107) over Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
Good Luck.
