Carolina is overpriced in the superbowl.

[Scorpion]

[GunShard]

[italianbandit]

I just bought Denver +6 at Bovada.

[seaborneq]

I've seen this line as low as 3 and as high as 6 at Bovada. I should get Denver +6 at Bovada right now.

[donkbetter]

Carolina wins with ease. Big Bear called this in July.

Denver's pass rush will be neutralized by Carolina run game. Miller and Ware are below average against run.

Going to be a very similar game to the last time Denver made SB.

going to be similar to seattle game - first half 24-7 and then slows down to 38-21

[italianbandit]

I've seen this line as low as 3 and as high as 6 at Bovada. I should get Denver +6 at Bovada right now.

If you like Denver yes, I don't see how you can get better. If the forecast comes out for rain +6 is an excellent buy.

[StackinGreen]

lakerboy sealing it ...

Carolina all day

[survive]

No shit Carolina is overpriced. Vegas has no choice, they knew everyone would hammer Carolina

[ThaTopMoron]

They are -4 or so. The broncos defense is the real deal. Newton will throw pick after pick.

Phillips is an old school white boy laughing right now. He will dismantle this panthers scheme. Carolina is so overhyped.

Denver defense is amazing.

Broncos +4 -110(50x)

Haven't said this much over the years, but I'm with you on this.

I'm gonna try and make a splash in the big game like I pulled off a couple years ago with the Ravens being +4 in the SB vs the 49'ers...and wasn't what Colin K was doing in the 12 playoffs remind you of Cam is doing... yeah pretty much. Cam can throw it a little better, but that's it. Denver will have the right scheme in place and play under control just like the Ravens did vs that 49'ers team.

[Renegades]

According to a stats guy that I subscribe to, carolina is way underpriced. And yes there is plenty of data to support his reasoning.

I personally like Denver but I'm not sure now after I read his analysis

[Renegades]

To make a long story short. Denver would be only the 4th team since the merger to win a SB with their statistical ranking. In other words, they rank very poorly from a stats perspective, and only 3 other teams with the same poor rankings have won since the merger

[TheMoneyShot]

To make a long story short. Denver would be only the 4th team since the merger to win a SB with their statistical ranking. In other words, they rank very poorly from a stats perspective, and only 3 other teams with the same poor rankings have won since the merger

Denver needs to call a picture perfect game on offense. No turnovers. They also need Cam to make a few bonehead mistakes.

Other than that... pretty much Carolina wins this.

[slacker00]

Peyton Manning will be the 1st QB in NFL history to appear in 4 Super Bowls with 4 different head coaches.

Coach killer. Someone has to take the ax for all those playoff losses, I guess...

[EastsidaProduct]

38-10 Carolina.

[DivineVictory]

I just bought Denver +6 at Bovada.

How much?

[italianbandit]

-115, now -120. That was days ago though. Pinnacle just moved to 4.5 so you might get better from Bovada if you wait. They may flash a 6.5 at some point. Hard to predict line movement on the most wagered game of the year. I think anything 6 or more is a good buy.

[Calgunner23]

Pounding Carolina ML with any small parlay I can, just loading up. Once Den gets all the points they will, I'll try to middle. penetrate it.

[KVB]

-115, now -120. That was days ago though. Pinnacle just moved to 4.5 so you might get better from Bovada if you wait. They may flash a 6.5 at some point. Hard to predict line movement on the most wagered game of the year. I think anything 6 or more is a good buy.

When I handicap a game I come up with a predicted score and compare that score to the lines. An overwhelmingly majority of the time, regardless of game the opening line moves toward my line.

When it doesn't move toward my line, I usually know why.

In that sense it isn't that hard to predict line movement, especially on big games. This superbowl is no different. I offered a prediction of line movement for the Superbowl when it came out and you are beginning to echo that in your post.

Predicting the winner can be a different analysis.

Early forecasts and indications on my end show that many sharp gamblers will be buying Carolina to -6.5 and Over to 46.5.

While this an excellent ball park figure, there are still other factors to consider. That said, I would expect, by game time, that the lines move from where they are now towards my indications, approaching both 7 and 47...

It will be tough to move that line onto the 7 but getting off of 6 to 6.5, while it will take late value sharp money, is entirely possible.

[StackinGreen]

knowing critical numbers on TOTALS is not something talked about often

I have done a lot of studying on this for full games, 1H and 2H

This knowledge definitely opens up value.

[KVB]

I agree, in terms of totals it will take a lot to get the number off of 45 and the next stop really is 47. If big groups are willing to take the Over 45 or they will push to 46.5 and back off at 47.

In a general sense, not this game, from 45, it will take a significant amount of more money to go through 44.5 and onto 44 than it would to go on to 46.5.

[StackinGreen]

Exactly.

[KVB]

[Nick_U]

This game ironically reminds me of superbowl 48 where EVERYONE was all over the broncos, POUND THIS and POUND THAT... and I was like hell no, I think seattle should be favored in this game and will probably win easy. Now here again... public money all over carolina.. eveyone on here "pounding" the moneyline. I think the broncos win straight up here. Another note... vegas does very well in these big games... just saying.

[strictlypaypal]

just hit +5 at EV odds on my book. it will be glorious

[RavensFan2k3]

He isn't cocky. He is acting black. Name one white qb who does that stupid shit.

Acting black...oh boy. So what doesnit mean to act white?

[Aye J Mac]

This game ironically reminds me of superbowl 48 where EVERYONE was all over the broncos, POUND THIS and POUND THAT... and I was like hell no, I think seattle should be favored in this game and will probably win easy. Now here again... public money all over carolina.. eveyone on here "pounding" the moneyline. I think the broncos win straight up here. Another note... vegas does very well in these big games... just saying.

Good point

[flyingillini]

I can't see the Broncos getting their again and having a shitty game but nobody knows what will happen. I'm taking Carolins but wouldn't surprise me if they lose.

[Hatefreezone]

Gl lakerboy I'll be on team cam but good luck to you.

[StackinGreen]

Acting black...oh boy. So what doesnit mean to act white?

If you don't like someone saying "acting black" then speak out against the idiots (like on Mike and Mike this AM --- those jokers Ryan Clark and whoever the other yelling clown was) that say "talking white"

Sounding educated or speaking properly is called "talking white"

Think about how stupid that is

[PREMOSIX]

This board is racist as penetrate smfh..bunch of confederate flag wavers

[KVB]

...Sounding educated or speaking properly is called "talking white"

Think about how stupid that is

There was a failed attempt to change what "educated" sounds like in Oakland California when they began teaching "ebonics" as a version of English in the school system.

It appears to be, for the most part, a misuse of the verb "to be."

[El Nino]

Acting black...oh boy. So what doesnit mean to act white?

Who knows ask Rob Parker, Dave Chapelle, or Charles Barkley...

[pavyracer]

Acting black...oh boy. So what doesnit mean to act white?

Like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers.

[Ironman07]

In all fairness the line should be 6...Denver is going to be hard pressed to score enough in this spot. the Panthers are on the same train the royals rode.

Well it 6 now and it was 3 1/2 when I first posted. could have saved the books if they would have opened it at the correct number...Oh well... the value is gone now for all those late to the party,,

[StackinGreen]

There was a failed attempt to change what "educated" sounds like in Oakland California when they began teaching "ebonics" as a version of English in the school system.

It appears to be, for the most part, a misuse of the verb "to be."

yup, the bigotry of low expectations

sorta like saying that islamic culture is ok, and they take backwards to a whole new level