Rivers TD passes

[a4u2fear]

My book is offering o1.5 TD passes -165, under +135

After doing some poisson calculations, under fair conditions, I came up with a no vig line of -135/+135

Considering the 80%+ chance of rain and heavy winds tonight and the sloppy field in Oakland, I definitely see the edge in the under.

Whether you determine it's enough of an edge to bet it, that's up to you.


Similarly Derek Carr o2 -150, u2 +120, I came up with a no vig line of +105. Probably not worth a bet with under if normal conditions, but again, with the weather, this may be the better bet since with the option of 2TDs here vs Rivers 1.5, you are less likely to lose than you would with Rivers (need 3TDs to lose vs 2 with Rivers).

I'll be on under 2 with Carr at +120

[blackHIPPY]

I too ran a few poison calculations and came up w a fair no vig line of 1.75 on a typical day.
w the fact that it's Christmas Eve coupled w the fact that it is on the west coast and humid
the desired output produces a marginal result yielding a 64% success rate. Pending the inevitable staphylococcus arbitrage the under 2 tds presents great value.

[jtoler]

I think Rivers being in San Diego is pretty used to the rain, wasnt that game a couple weeks ago in the rain on Sunday and he was even sick.

[POOLSIDE]

I too ran a few poison calculations and came up w a fair no vig line of 1.75 on a typical day.
w the fact that it's Christmas Eve coupled w the fact that it is on the west coast and humid
the desired output produces a marginal result yielding a 64% success rate. Pending the inevitable staphylococcus arbitrage the under 2 tds presents great value.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jtoler]

GJ guys.

[a4u2fear]

Let's keep this going. Both TD and INT props tonight for Cousins show no value.

I am however playing these two on Bradford with both showing +EV under poisson estimations:
Bradford u1.5 pass TDs, -105
Bradford u0.5 INTs, +170

good luck!

[a4u2fear]

Will try to evaluate for each QB this weekend.

1-0 +1.2

[POOLSIDE]

I like the Bradford interceptions play

[a4u2fear]

messed up with the pass TDs on Bradford, plays is officially o1.5 -125, not under

[a4u2fear]

2-1 +1.65. Waiting for my book to post props.

Will not be playing any QB props that are not normally starting or have played too few games.

[a4u2fear]

Cutler u.5 INTs +110
Winston u.5 INTs +110
Newton o2.5 PTDs +135
Ryan u1.5 PTDs -175
Tyrod Taylor u1.5 PTDs +100
Stafford u.5 INTs +120
Alex Smith u1.5 PTDs -125

all 1u so far

[a4u2fear]

Big Ben u.5 INTs +140
Brady u2.5 PTDs -165
Brady INTs u.5 -105
Fitz u1.5 PTDs +115
Tannehill o1.5 PTDs -145

[a4u2fear]

Bortles o2.5 PTDs +160
Palmer u2 PTDs +135
Wilson u2 PTDs +130

Bridgewater and Manning later.