Chiefs ML +220/ +3.5 +120/+6-115

[JameisBrady]

Chiefs cover, and VERY good chance win straight up. Coming off a tough home-opener loss (I was there), with over a week to prepare. Chief's D is better than G.B.'s, and they do have playmakers on O. -6.5 was a trap line, books wanting actions on G.B. Sharp money has driven the line down today. 69% is on G.B. Side, and 58% on G.B ML. Public gets buried on this prime-time game tonight.

Yes, I'm a Chiefs season ticket holder and I do know this team; however, I'm being unbiased on the facts. They will not make near as many penalties and T.O.'s as they did against Denver. Fade the public on this one boyz.

A Chiefs fan predicting his team will win. Shocking.

[dmiles1021]

is this like your Lions play? lol

[chargers4222]

Chiefs cover, and VERY good chance win straight up. Coming off a tough home-opener loss (I was there), with over a week to prepare. Chief's D is better than G.B.'s, and they do have playmakers on O. -6.5 was a trap line, books wanting actions on G.B. Sharp money has driven the line down today. 69% is on G.B. Side, and 58% on G.B ML. Public gets buried on this prime-time game tonight.

Yes, I'm a Chiefs season ticket holder and I do know this team; however, I'm being unbiased on the facts. They will not make near as many penalties and T.O.'s as they did against Denver. Fade the public on this one boyz.

"i know this team" lol

[Wohlford]

Chiefs cover, and VERY good chance win straight up. Coming off a tough home-opener loss (I was there), with over a week to prepare. Chief's D is better than G.B.'s, and they do have playmakers on O. -6.5 was a trap line, books wanting actions on G.B. Sharp money has driven the line down today. 69% is on G.B. Side, and 58% on G.B ML. Public gets buried on this prime-time game tonight.

Yes, I'm a Chiefs season ticket holder and I do know this team; however, I'm being unbiased on the facts. They will not make near as many penalties and T.O.'s as they did against Denver. Fade the public on this one boyz.

Aaron Rodgers will throw into Fleming's coverage anytime he needs a first down, just like Peyton did.

[lakerboy]

is this like your Lions play? lol

Yes. U have a problem with that? Lol

[Slowmotion]

back up to 7 it looks like on 5dimes.

[ToPHeR]

back up to 7 it looks like on 5Dimes.

Nah, they just messing with the lines that's why it's +EV. Reduced juice is still -6 but even that is +EV

[dmiles1021]

Yes. U have a problem with that? Lol

no problem lakerboy, i havnt followed many of your plays so i cant judge. I just could not believe people thought the lions would win last night. Crazy if you ask me.

[RavensFan2k3]

Yes. U have a problem with that? Lol

Well yeah because that lost so...

[lakerboy]

Let's see how this one goes. Detroit lost and I lost. I move on. I don't dwell on games for long. I was taught to move forward.

[FlaxMartin]

My local book has packers -6 at +102...So I made a small bet.

[lakerboy]

Pack prob lose by 6

[PorkChop]

KC +3.5 (+125) looks great

[FlaxMartin]

Pack prob lose by 6

A team rarely wins by exactly 6 points, but it will be one interesting matchup in Rodgers vs Smith.

[lakerboy]

A team rarely wins by exactly 6 points, but it will be one interesting matchup in Rodgers vs Smith.

I don't how often it happens but it happened yesterday in st.louis.

[KVB]

Nah, they just messing with the lines that's why it's +EV. Reduced juice is still -6 but even that is +EV

I’m not sure I agree with your assessment of EV, but then again there are as many ways to handicap as there are handicappers.

Good Luck

...Now, I have a predicted score of Green Bay winning with 27 points to Kansas City’s 23 points. The lined opened early at Green Bay -6.5 and some houses opened at -7. With more unsophisticated models and bettors also predicting a 4 point game, I’m not surprised the line moved towards my difference of 4 points, hitting as low as -5.5. However, even with the opener of 7 points, my prediction is too close to qualify as a bet and likely wouldn’t be picked up by some sharper groups, being just out of their range.

My total prediction of 50 points is very close to the opening line of 48, which moved to 49, but has dropped to 47.5 in most places. This doesn’t quite qualify as Over play but would trigger a buy if it fell to 46.5. I believe the line has dropped a little as many models look to a 44 or 45 point game.

To sum it up I feel the markets will get enough underdog money on KC and may have tried to take out some bettors tonight. I think there is pressure on Green Bay at -5.5 and -6 and the books will take that split.

It is my opinion that, some of those sharper underdog bettors on the sideline may even take the Green Bay moneyline, if the price is right. They may be right here and will have to lay to play…a problem for many based on perception, not for those seeking value if the number is right.

I believe the books are positioning themselves for a Kansas City cover and will step in where they looked to make some of us pass with Kansas City Chiefs +6 (-110) over Green Bay Packers.

I am recognizing that this is only the 3^rd week of the season and many larger, sharper groups have yet to enter the market. It is my belief, with this type of market analysis, that a failed bet here would likely be recovered at a later date, perhaps when those groups being targeted enter the markets full force...

If I am correct with trying to take these same bettors off of the pointspread then they may be wrong on the moneyline. Considering this and some unnamed metrics I have also picked up Kansas City Chiefs +215 over Green Bay Packers...

[KVB]

back up to 7 it looks like on 5dimes.

Be careful, pay attention to the prices at this number.

Also note that this represents a chance for 5 Dimes to slip an extra dime or so on the favorite moneyline. They're like that.

[KVB]

I don't how often it happens but it happened yesterday in st.louis.

Often enough for those who know how to use this kind of information to maximize profit over the course of a season or more.

[Booya711]

KC and the over

[TheMoneyShot]

LB win one for the gipper

[jtoler]

Be careful, pay attention to the prices at this number.

Also note that this represents a chance for 5 Dimes to slip an extra dime or so on the favorite moneyline. They're like that.

Theyve never tricked me with that before, but do you think they do that on purpose to make people think the line has moved, I mean it is obvious its juiced and there is a drop down, but why not just make the -110 visible and everything else on the drop down.

[GT21Megatron]

Let's see how this one goes. Detroit lost and I lost. I move on. I don't dwell on games for long. I was taught to move forward.

No shit you don't have a dime on anything you phony

[4TH AND STUPID]

No shit you don't have a dime on anything you phony

lakerjoke is an embarrassment to sports handicapping. when will the torture stop

[KVB]

Theyve never tricked me with that before, but do you think they do that on purpose to make people think the line has moved, I mean it is obvious its juiced and there is a drop down, but why not just make the -110 visible and everything else on the drop down.

It has almost everything to do with teasers. If you want to tease this game 6 points at 5 Dimes, you'll be doing it from a 7 point line, not 6.

When you see the listed price as slightly alternative, think about the tease and the numbers it would cross.

[new era]

Keep the picks coming. Idk why people want you to stop.

[lakerboy]

I will beat closer. Nothing else I can do. As a bettor that's my part to do.

[jtoler]

It has almost everything to do with teasers. If you want to tease this game 6 points at 5 Dimes, you'll be doing it from a 7 point line, not 6.

When you see the listed price as slightly alternative, think about the tease and the numbers it would cross.

You are exactly correct.

[jtoler]

I will beat closer. Nothing else I can do. As a bettor that's my part to do.

Or is that a gambler's fallacy.

[PorkChop]

Chiefs O_coordinator (ex Brett Favre, Packers backup ironically), Doug Peterson - just interviewed, How do you plan to attack the Packers today on offense, "run the ball and control the time of possession. We need to take advantage of our two-man TE set on there six technique and run the ball which we have a significant advantage of and manage the game which Alex Smith does an great job of doing."


Sounds to me like, run run run and keep 12 on sideline.

[mikefan1034]

Lakerboy is the biggest air betting fraud going hahah but hey he makes me money fading him on the daily

[KVB]

KC and the over

I ended up with a little over myself.

Good Luck

[ZIPPER HEAD]

I don't even cap last two weeks laker boy goes one way I go opposite very profitable so far

[mikefan1034]

This kid sucks balls but he's an asset so I hope he stays to give more losers

[CHOICE]

You really have to be some kind of moron to back a 2nd rate organization like the Chiefs, and that scrub Alex Smith vs. that robot Aaron Rodgers, at home, in prime time.

[t-wizzle]

I don't understand your dislike for Rodgers man.