manny24 Hockey Gueys, check in. DRAFT/FA PUCKS

High3rEl3m3nt · 10-06-15, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by MoeSedway

Any NHL DFS grinders in here? Nino will be playing with us in spirit.

I played last year and it's the only DFS sport that I made decent money in.

I was .4 pts which is two goalie saves from taking down a large GPP. The key is to fade the public at goalie, stack, and get lucky. I had Varmalov in Chicago, who was a low owned goalie for obvious reasons, but also was a fade against a large percentage of people that stacked chicago players. I had a blues stack (popular that night) and an Ottawa stack (very little owned) which killed it.

Quite a few DFS players take the same approach, which tips to opportunities to fade and set yourself up for the best chance to make a top cash. They like to use odds--sbrodds is a popular reference tool, where they will look for the highest totals, biggest favs, etc., and then build their lineups with those players. A lot of times this will work, but the ownership is so high that there is not a ton of roster variance. If you fade, you will lose quite a bit, but when the fade works, you have a great shot to be in the real money--not min cashing.

High3rEl3m3nt · 10-06-15, 12:53 PM

moments after I typed that (i live in mountain time)

10/06/15 11:29:01am	+120	-140
10/06/15 11:28:27am	+126	-146
10/06/15 11:10:17am	+130	-150

Vegas39 · 10-06-15, 12:54 PM

5 dimes down to +115

High3rEl3m3nt · 10-06-15, 12:56 PM

I'd love to say that I hit it at +130, but I sat on my hands a moment too long and was able to take +120. Terrible mistake since my intent for over a week was to take the Rangers.

Vegas39 · 10-06-15, 12:58 PM

Mine too and grabbed at +115 and will hit again if it raises but that will shock me

MoeSedway · 10-06-15, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

I played last year and it's the only DFS sport that I made decent money in.

I was .4 pts which is two goalie saves from taking down a large GPP. The key is to fade the public at goalie, stack, and get lucky. I had Varmalov in Chicago, who was a low owned goalie for obvious reasons, but also was a fade against a large percentage of people that stacked chicago players. I had a blues stack (popular that night) and an Ottawa stack (very little owned) which killed it.

Quite a few DFS players take the same approach, which tips to opportunities to fade and set yourself up for the best chance to make a top cash. They like to use odds--sbrodds is a popular reference tool, where they will look for the highest totals, biggest favs, etc., and then build their lineups with those players. A lot of times this will work, but the ownership is so high that there is not a ton of roster variance. If you fade, you will lose quite a bit, but when the fade works, you have a great shot to be in the real money--not min cashing.

Amen, HE. I play MLB and NFL pretty heavily, but will be looking to incorporate more NHL play into my grind.

We are on the same page when it comes to contrarian stacking.

High3rEl3m3nt · 10-06-15, 01:27 PM

Sounds like you are in the know, Moe, but for the others, who like to play GPPs, which is the best DFS value offering, the goalie is the best option to fade a good portion of your opponents' budget. Again, will strike out quite a bit, but taking the road goalie in TB, Chicago, LA, MTL, etc., is a good GPP move if you have a BR that supports that level of risk--which you should.

swordsandtequila · 10-06-15, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by Vegas39

1 more day . Or last day Toronto is in 1st place

[ATTACH]85491[/ATTACH]

Seaweed

MoeSedway · 10-06-15, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

Sounds like you are in the know, Moe, but for the others, who like to play GPPs, which is the best DFS value offering, the goalie is the best option to fade a good portion of your opponents' budget. Again, will strike out quite a bit, but taking the road goalie in TB, Chicago, LA, MTL, etc., is a good GPP move if you have a BR that supports that level of risk--which you should.

I think your last point is very important in terms of risk/BR management; if one is not comfortable getting outside of the box/going contrarian then they are most likely playing above their BR.

Are you in favor of stacking a team's specific line and/or defensive pairing, or do you favor a handful of players from that team?

High3rEl3m3nt · 10-06-15, 02:04 PM

I've played around with several defensive player strategies, depending on the size of the card and so forth. Some cards feature games that you know the public is going spring and stack certain players. For example, a bottom feeder playing a top scoring team. I will sometimes add the D1 or D2 that pairs with that top stack in an attempt to block points. As long as the player is not a center piece of the top line and PP, such as P.K, since most are going to have him in their MTL stack.

There are also second line combos that are also popular, because everyone loves to gravitate to the same "sleeper" "value" stacks. This tends to happen when you start off taking a top goalie, which limits your opportunities and moves you towards a herd approach. Last year, this moved a lot of players to 2nd line Islander, Pens, Hawks etc., stacks. This presents another opportunity to point block by rostering the D3.

Usually, I like to use the D positions to point block and place less importance on rostering the position to support my offensive stacks.

The GPPs are more about playing your opponents imho and that's why the insider leaking story, which just surfaced, is such a big deal. Huge edge on being able to verify usage percentages and then rolling out a bunch of lineups that fade the public.

MoeSedway · 10-06-15, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

I've played around with several defensive player strategies, depending on the size of the card and so forth. Some cards feature games that you know the public is going spring and stack certain players. For example, a bottom feeder playing a top scoring team. I will sometimes add the D1 or D2 that pairs with that top stack in an attempt to block points. As long as the player is not a center piece of the top line and PP, such as P.K, since most are going to have him in their MTL stack.

There are also second line combos that are also popular, because everyone loves to gravitate to the same "sleeper" "value" stacks. This tends to happen when you start off taking a top goalie, which limits your opportunities and moves you towards a herd approach. Last year, this moved a lot of players to 2nd line Islander, Pens, Hawks etc., stacks. This presents another opportunity to point block by rostering the D3.

Usually, I like to use the D positions to point block and place less importance on rostering the position to support my offensive stacks.

The GPPs are more about playing your opponents imho and that's why the insider leaking story, which just surfaced, is such a big deal. Huge edge on being able to verify usage percentages and then rolling out a bunch of lineups that fade the public.

This is great stuff, HE. Will add some thoughts when I have some more time.

Vegas39 · 10-06-15, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

I'd love to say that I hit it at +130, but I sat on my hands a moment too long and was able to take +120. Terrible mistake since my intent for over a week was to take the Rangers.

Now down to +110 at dimes

Rudeboy · 10-06-15, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by Vegas39

Now down to +110 at dimes

Your tempting me here Veg

CanuckG · 10-06-15, 05:29 PM

call me crazy but I kinda like the Sharks +142

Vegas39 · 10-06-15, 05:31 PM