NBA: When Was The Last Time You Saw A -5 + Closeout Game An The Underdog Covered?

[TheMoneyShot]

I'm being 100% serious here. Even the most elite here won't figure it out.

I've been wagering for 15+ years and honestly... I don't recall it ever happening.



Again... it's a closeout game -5 or more. The underdog actually covered.

[OckertCR]

How many of those teams lost by 35 in the previous game?

[KiDBaZkiT]

Off the top of my head I wanna say Celtics/Magic series in 09 or 2010. Pretty sure Celts were up 3-0 and was 5 or 5.5 if I remember correctly and Orlando won/covered.

[Seto]

Knicks beat the Heat as an 8 point underdog down 3-0 in 2012. Last one I can think of.

Boston+8 pushed this year against Cleveland, but the line was around 7/7.5 most of the time. Still, if you got a good line you could have pushed.

[The Giant]

Uh, last round. Clippers/Rockets, game six.

[Seto]

Oh wait I thought he was talking about teams down 3-0 for some reason. Well yeah, if it's just closeout games obviously there are plenty of examples then.

[TheMoneyShot]

Uh, last round. Clippers/Rockets, game six.

Giant... you're hurting my point of view.




So in a closeout game.... -5 or higher... what would you say is the success rate in the favorite covering? 65-70%?

[jjgold]

Every sharpening knives status on the Houston Rockets tonight and if you're not you are a square

[The Giant]

Giant... you're hurting my point of view.




So in a closeout game.... -5 or higher... what would you say is the success rate in the favorite covering? 65-70%?

No clue, honestly.

It seems like when teams used to get up 3-0, the losing team would mail it in the fourth game. It doesn't seem that way as much anymore though. I'm not exactly sure why.

[TheMoneyShot]

No clue, honestly.

It seems like when teams used to get up 3-0, the losing team would mail it in the fourth game. It doesn't seem that way as much anymore though. I'm not exactly sure why.

I was rather surprised with the opening line Game 3. Everyone hammered Houston it seemed? Roughly PK -1. I always use the theory 6 point swing on the line from HOME to ROAD. G.S. -10 at home... should of been -4 on the Road. Oddly enough... it was PK. 10 point swing from HOME to ROAD. But this Game 4 line is right where it should of been to begin with. To me it's just crazy to see G.S. -5 on the ROAD. I just thought Vegas was trying to get your action on Houston. But who really knows?

[thetrinity]

Every sharpening knives status on the Houston Rockets tonight and if you're not you are a square

stuff like this scares me