Guy has $20,000 on Michigan State to win a million

[KiDBaZkiT]

Love corrupt ESPN. Has been just a glorified gambling reference for football last 3-4 years. They advertise the point spread in every living room in America on the bottomline through out the week when last I checked sportsbetting was illegal in 98% of the country? Always have stories about "Oh this fukk bet $500 on the Cardinals when they were 10 games out to win 500,000 and cashed look how great he is and fukkin weak broke and ghetto you are."

[KVB]

Love corrupt ESPN. Has been just a glorified gambling reference for football last 3-4 years. They advertise the point spread in every living room in America on the bottomline through out the week when last I checked sportsbetting was illegal in 98% of the country? Always have stories about "Oh this fukk bet $500 on the Cardinals when they were 10 games out to win 500,000 and cashed look how great he is and fukkin weak broke and ghetto you are."

Times have certainly changed, let's all take advantage. We need that unsophisticated money to hit the markets to soften those lines. We need all we can to force the bookmakers off of sharp lines, to force them to put up a line that truly is an average blend of handicappers.

It is this difference between valid lines and that forced average line that allows anyone, even the sharpest professionals, to win over time.

Without it, the best of us would be 50-50, or worse.

[Ralphie1412]

Half a mill on dukeduke

[TheMoneyShot]

Let's get serious now... surprised ESPN even posted this story...

Michigan State will keep it close... Duke is a big challenge... and Wisconsin/Kentucky is even a bigger challenge.

No way he wins. Start hedging now if he's smart. Don't let it ride guy.

[Plaza23]

Why are you posting? Stop lying you FN clown.

[upscope]

IF you are willing to put $20,000 on someone at a 50-1 shot, I'm sure he has over a 1mils "laying around".

Here's what I would do (if there isnt a prop of "MSU not winning the title" he could hedge on.

Duke right now is -245.
I'd bet 80,000 to win 32,700. If Duke wins, he's at a profit of 12,700.

Duke loses, now he's 100,000 behind. KY shouldnt be more than a -500 favorite to beat MSU and Wisconsin would be way less than that.

Worse case put 800,000 on KY at -500. If KY wins, he wins 160,000. Profit (160,000 - 100,000 = 60,000)
If MSU wins, he'd be at a profit of 1,000,000 - 900,000 = 100,000.

If he hedges properly he should clearly make good money on this.

All you're scenarios have him hedging for a relatively small win considering. Dude owns casino's, this isnt about taking a 12k profit. This is about a cool million to bring some attention to himself & the casino's he owns!!

[TheMoneyShot]

All you're scenarios have him hedging for a relatively small win considering. Dude owns casino's, this isnt about taking a 12k profit. This is about a cool million to bring some attention to himself & the casino's he owns!!

Wow. Didn't read the entire story. Didn't know he owned casinos? You're allowed to place wagers at different casinos.... even though you're a majority owner? Seems weird.

[retard]

Let's get serious now... surprised ESPN even posted this story...

Michigan State will keep it close... Duke is a big challenge... and Wisconsin/Kentucky is even a bigger challenge.

No way he wins. Start hedging now if he's smart. Don't let it ride guy.

This ''guy'' who made the 20k bet is a casino owner

[yisman]

He got bad odds.

MSU should've been a lot longer than 50/1 at the time

they're 14/1 now after making the tournament and advancing all the way to the final four

[manny24]

i heard the casino guy was bearding for RawBillyIce

[KVB]

Wow. Didn't read the entire story. Didn't know he owned casinos? You're allowed to place wagers at different casinos.... even though you're a majority owner? Seems weird.

Yeah but the group that bought the stake in the Harrah's properties long ago also owns a stake in the the Boston Garden, and as such, a nominal stake in the Boston Celtics. You wont' find any lines on the Celtics in any of those casinos. They just can't offer them.

[nyplayer33]

Why do they have no shot in beating Kentucky..the spread is only 5...historically 5 pt favs in basketball win outright prob 85 percent..

[boeing power]

He got bad odds.

MSU should've been a lot longer than 50/1 at the time

they're 14/1 now after making the tournament and advancing all the way to the final four

He got a much better line than lakerboy.....didn't he bet them at 4/1 pretourney?

[Ralphie Halves]

In the article it says he owns The D and Golden Gate hotels in downtown Las Vegas, so hedging should not be a problem for him.

Holy crap, I know that guy then! Friends with his daughter and her boyfriend. Guess I have a team to root for now.

[slacker00]

You're right. Basketball is actually more susceptible to upsets than football.

Prove it. I'm not convinced that a +200 dog has statistically significant difference from sport to sport. I call BS.

[PaperTrail07]

interested as well....what sport cashes the most 2:1 Dogs......

Prove it. I'm not convinced that a +200 dog has statistically significant difference from sport to sport. I call BS.

[El Nino]

Prove it. I'm not convinced that a +200 dog has statistically significant difference from sport to sport. I call BS.

Basketball has more chances for possessions over football. Baseball has a set number of outs. In college, you have a greater standard deviation based on home court/neutral court for mistakes/turnovers. You're dealing with kids here. The number of turnovers and therefore possessions can vary quite a bit. Obviously, this can try to be accounted for, but you can't account for a team going 7-9 minutes down the stretch scoring 0 points...which has happened in the tourney. I'd say the margin for error in regards to statistics is the highest in ncaab.

[No coincidences]

Basketball has more chances for possessions over football. Baseball has a set number of outs. In college, you have a greater standard deviation based on home court/neutral court for mistakes/turnovers. You're dealing with kids here. The number of turnovers and therefore possessions can vary quite a bit. Obviously, this can try to be accounted for, but you can't account for a team going 7-9 minutes down the stretch scoring 0 points...which has happened in the tourney. I'd say the margin for error in regards to statistics is the highest in ncaab.

Not to mention fewer players, and a better chance for a fluke result for some team getting "hot."

I'm not saying upsets can't and don't happen in football, but teams that dominate the line of scrimmage typically win. The physical aspect of a game is more prevalent in football than basketball.

And FTR, you can't really "prove it" through gambling statistics. There isn't really anything that proves what the books define a +200 dog in football, for instance, is judged the same as a +200 dog in basketball.

[BrickJames]

This guy might not hedge at all. You give up a lot of value when you hedge. Sounds like 20K not a big deal for him.

[stevenash]

Love corrupt ESPN. Has been just a glorified gambling reference for football last 3-4 years. They advertise the point spread in every living room in America on the bottomline through out the week when last I checked sportsbetting was illegal in 98% of the country? Always have stories about "Oh this fukk bet $500 on the Cardinals when they were 10 games out to win 500,000 and cashed look how great he is and fukkin weak broke and ghetto you are."

And Brent (God bless him) calls a football game in favor of what side he bet on.
Al Michaels (not ESPN) is a notorious pony player and sports bettor.
And on, and on, and on.

If it moves, you can bet on it.

[19th Hole]

Derek Stevens holds the million dollar ticket outside The D Las Vegas.

He's from Detroit says he will hedge.

Today's #1 Question: To Hedge or Not To Hedge....FYI, I'm Hedging
I'll take ideas.....<s>#</s>GoState

[Vinnie Paz]

He hedged with 49K on Msu to lose

[rocky9995]

Prob coulda did a little more

[TwoWays]

Waste of dollars

[tony_come]

Waste of dollars

What does this mean?

[Smoke]

What does this mean?

Toniest mich st wont win

[tony_come]

Toniest mich st wont win

Smokiest we know

[TwoWays]

Smokey do not pick up the soap. Tony is lingering

[tony_come]

2ways I will penetrate

[yisman]

Not to mention fewer players, and a better chance for a fluke result for some team getting "hot."

I'm not saying upsets can't and don't happen in football, but teams that dominate the line of scrimmage typically win. The physical aspect of a game is more prevalent in football than basketball.

And FTR, you can't really "prove it" through gambling statistics. There isn't really anything that proves what the books define a +200 dog in football, for instance, is judged the same as a +200 dog in basketball.

Looks pretty simple to me. Examine the frequency of +200 underdogs winning in each sport.

[chachi]

variance in the actual capping and methodology sport vs sport put aside for this argument
(which skews things more than the markets/odds being discussed to be frank)

if one presumes properly formed markets in terms of odds levels, a +200 shot is a +200 shot is a +200 shot

the vagaries of ncaab versus pro basketball in theory are in the capping and the spread/odds lines are they not?

so should a +200 ncaab dog be more like a +210/+215 shot really but market gets pegged around +200 to account for such?

[TwoWays]

What a jerkoff! Giving money away

[broadway6]

What a jerkoff! Giving money away

Rich people.

[jtoler]

Thing is if he was willing to blow 20k on an MSU future there is no telling how many other teams that are out of tourney he blew 20k on. He could have been hedging at start of tourney and already went through another 20k also.

[JosephPavs]

He is an alum