Keep Telling Yourself NCAA Isn't Rigged

[BigDeem5]

A lot of squares on wrong side

Maryland -4 v Valpo
ND -3.5 v Butler

You guys don't see these lines as fishy? Lay off it.

Let me guess you guys are all on OK -4.5 v Dayton?

Kansas -2?

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

Does a whore shit in the woods?

Loan me $400 and we will find out

[jjgold]

I have on my wall failed bettors cry fix

[El Nino]

Loan me $400 and we will find out

$400 seems spendy for some ho into scat play, Mo. $75 should suffice.

[El Nino]

A lot of squares on wrong side

Maryland -4 v Valpo
ND -3.5 v Butler

You guys don't see these lines as fishy? Lay off it.

Let me guess you guys are all on OK -4.5 v Dayton?

Kansas -2?

Dayton is the play. I don't believe all this, "Kansas won't schedule Wichita State!" ZOMG BS they keep spouting. Ellis & Seldon should destroy them down low. Line is -1.5 here.

[BigDeem5]

If you're gonna be a square, do it correctly.

Arizona UNc ml parlay was a winner today, although both covered.

Don't lay those -3s, take the -160ml fellas.

Take SDSU tomorrow

[shopbar picks]

Duke in a land slide. Best way to make money is bet against the post on sbr of a fav.. Everybody loved okie st.

[xdodger19]

I'm starting to see more value in the moneyline, takes getting used to however.
Virginia on the moneyline. -200
It makes it difficult to lose unless Michigan St, plays over their heads. Last game vs the Bruins, Virginia was on the better end of the refs; one play in particular the Virginia player got out on the break, dribbled with two hands, then took 3 steps all the way to the rim. The center was doing some public address announcement or something, so the refs are gonna give Michigan St. the business. As well, the Virginia team is huge and the bigger teams get the benefit of alot of fouls battling for rebounds.
And Virginia is a really solid team that doesn't miscue very often, like Wisconsin.
Virginia also looked more potent on offense last game as they came out much more aggressive on offense.

[Big Bear]

A lot of squares on wrong side

Maryland -4 v Valpo
ND -3.5 v Butler

You guys don't see these lines as fishy? Lay off it.

Let me guess you guys are all on OK -4.5 v Dayton?

Kansas -2?

hindsight is 50/50 deemer

[Big Bear]

I have on my wall failed bettors cry fix

lol

[LT Profits]

Dayton is the play. I don't believe all this, "Kansas won't schedule Wichita State!" ZOMG BS they keep spouting. Ellis & Seldon should destroy them down low. Line is -1.5 here.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/ncaa-basketball-betting/3073365-perhaps-best-college-basketball-bet-all-year.html

All that spewing has nothing to do with it, Wichita State should win because they are the better team IMO.

[ZetaPsi808]

the refs def manipulate the margin of victory bc of the spread

they also affect the moneyline winner

but we already know this so complaining about it is pointless

adjust your wagers beforehand

[pavyracer]

Give me one reason to bet -3.5 or -2 and not ML on games decided on final possession.

March Madness is all about drama. They like to see all games decided on final shot.

And no Notre Dame didn't shave points. They are up by 5 and they don't want to foul a 3 point shot so they let the guy dunk uncontested to burn the clock. Nothing fishy. That's why you bet the ML.

[ZetaPsi808]

Give me one reason to bet -3.5 or -2 and not ML on games decided on final possession.

March Madness is all about drama. They like to see all games decided on final shot.

And no Notre Dame didn't shave points. They are up by 5 and they don't want to foul a 3 point shot so they let the guy dunk uncontested to burn the clock. Nothing fishy. That's why you bet the ML.

bc when the -160 team loses straight up you lose more

i have bet teams -3 and they win by 10 so i only had to lay -105 instead of -160

i have bet teams -3 that get blown out, so i end up losing an extra 60 cents in juice

[ZetaPsi808]

and i dont see anywhere where you predicted that a certain game would be decided by a final shot so its all hindsight

[Smoke]

Zelda gets it.

Look at what happened to brock betting ml faves.

Winning at -110 is hard enough

[Da Manster!]

jesus, I love all of these conspiracy theories!...you guys are straight up killing me!......yes, sometimes the fix is in but for the most part it is what it is...just shitty officiating, lack of execution by the players, and/or crappy playcalling by the coaches...lots of factors and variables in the equation...refs, players, and coaches don't give a fuk about totals and point spreads...all they care is to win the games, period...so, in closing, although there might be the occasional point shaving scandal, or a ref getting paid off, etc, etc...these occurrences are generally the exception and not the rule...truth be told, not one fuk could be given about about any of us fellow degenerates and how we wager...

[pavyracer]

bc when the -160 team loses straight up you lose more

i have bet teams -3 and they win by 10 so i only had to lay -105 instead of -160

i have bet teams -3 that get blown out, so i end up losing an extra 60 cents in juice

Is risk reward. This is not like regular season where teams will play hard to cover a -3.5. In a knock out tourney they are playing very conservative. Do you want to win a -150 or lose a -110?

[ZetaPsi808]

Is risk reward. This is not like regular season where teams will play hard to cover a -3.5. In a knock out tourney they are playing very conservative. Do you want to win a -150 or lose a -110?

silly question bc it works both ways

i would rather lose a -105 than lose a -150

perfect example is virginia -190 today. u take the ml u lose a -190. u take the spread u lose a -105

[pavyracer]

Sure just bet randomly every chalk ML. That's the way to go.

[RavensFan2k3]

[/B]

silly question bc it works both ways

i would rather lose a -105 than lose a -150

perfect example is virginia -190 today. u take the ml u lose a -190. u take the spread u lose a -105

Thats not a good example, because UVA was never the right play

[pacman63]

Going back to Notre dame, after the dunk wasn't there approx 1.7 seconds left. Why wasn't every butler player on a ND PLAYER FOR THE INBOIND PASS FOR THE IMMEDIATE FOUL. GAME WAS ONLY 3 so it's not unheard of to foul or hold your man to prevent him from getting the inbound pass. Or am I over thinking this

[stevenash]

[/B]

silly question bc it works both ways

i would rather lose a -105 than lose a -150

perfect example is virginia -190 today. u take the ml u lose a -190. u take the spread u lose a -105

I use money line faves with other money line faves in baseball 2 team parlay.
Now don't argue with me, because I can back this statement up with math.
"Betting a two team money line favorite paray in baseball actually eats into a bookmakers edge"

[ZetaPsi808]

Thats not a good example, because UVA was never the right play

congrats your hindsight is 20/20

can you tell me the right play in some more games that ended already?

[ZetaPsi808]

I use money line faves with other money line faves in baseball 2 team parlay.
Now don't argue with me, because I can back this statement up with math.
"Betting a two team money line favorite paray in baseball actually eats into a bookmakers edge"

i disagree. although id like to see you back this up with math/numbers

[El Nino]

"Whiffs" on the foul to give the easy basket for the OU cover Ok, ref. Hit the guy right as he was passing.

[Ironman07]

The bottom line is tournament games are not the time to lay the big lumber. If your not committed to being very careful to find 1 or 2 live dogs each day and no big bets in the tournament as there is no real pattern to cap these games,,, that being said I thing the ku-wSt game today was one of the very rare exception to take the opening line dog.. Those who think there are rigged games in the tournament should find another hobby.

[stevenash]

i disagree. although id like to see you back this up with math/numbers

Suppose there are two teams that you like this week. One of them is -$1.30 and the other is -$1.40. You have to bet a total of $2.70 to win $2.00. If one of them loses, say the $1.30, you win $.71, which in anybody's bookkeeping system, is a loss. Turn it around and say you lose the -$1.40 play. Your winner brings you $.77. Either way, you have lost money. If you lost both games, you're out the full $2.70.

Instead, let's say you parlay those same two favorites for $1.00, and they both win, you win $1.95, which is just a nickel short of what you'd win in the first example except you've put up way less money. If one of your teams loses, which is going to happen 6 times out of ten, you lose only $1.00 on each parlay bet.

In a recent year, 41 games closed at -$2.00 on the money line. Of these games, the favorite won 25 times, or 61 percent. Had you bet on these favorites, you would have lost money.

Let's see what happens when we apply our new knowledge of parlay wagering to the sample of 25 favorites winning (out of 41 plays) at -$2.00. If you bet these games $2.00 to win $1.00, you would have cashed 25 tickets at $1.00 per ticket, but you would have lost 16 times at $2.00 per ticket. That works out to $25 won, less $82 bet, equals -$57 net loss.

If you had parlayed those bets, the results would most likely be different. We say "most likely" because we have to assume some percentages. The first, and most noticeable, effect is that you only need to bet $41 instead of $82. Assuming that the percentages play out, you should win 16 of these 41 wagers. If we refer to our Parlay Payoff Chart below, we see that we should average $1.25 per win.
The bad news is that the $20 returned still results in a net loss. The good new is that you only had to wager half as much money to lose less than you would have with flat betting. With the parlay bet, you would have bet $41 and returned $20, for a net loss of $21.

[YouHave2outs]

-130 needs 56.52% to break even, but with juice or whatever assuming line is spot on true line is like -125 right on -130/+120 so let's say the favorite hits here 54.54% which is the breakeven for -125
and -140 needs 58.33% to break even, favorite hits here 57.45% if we account for the juice and assume the line to be spot on -140/+130

betting individually:

odds of winning 1st and losing 2nd = 23.21%, -.40
lose 1st, win 2nd = 26.12% -.30
win both = 31.33% +2
lose both = 19.34% -2.7

expected value = -0.067


if you are getting +195 on the two teamer:
win parlay = 31.33% +1.95
lose parlay = 68.67% -1

expected value = -0.076

math would say that it is better to bet them individually and by a reasonable margin. hope this helps.

edit: i think it should be self explanatory, but if i left out some steps in the math that anyone wants explained just let me know. as matt damon once said, it's right.

[ZetaPsi808]

Suppose there are two teams that you like this week. One of them is -$1.30 and the other is -$1.40. You have to bet a total of $2.70 to win $2.00. If one of them loses, say the $1.30, you win $.71, which in anybody's bookkeeping system, is a loss. Turn it around and say you lose the -$1.40 play. Your winner brings you $.77. Either way, you have lost money. If you lost both games, you're out the full $2.70.

Instead, let's say you parlay those same two favorites for $1.00, and they both win, you win $1.95, which is just a nickel short of what you'd win in the first example except you've put up way less money. If one of your teams loses, which is going to happen 6 times out of ten, you lose only $1.00 on each parlay bet.

In a recent year, 41 games closed at -$2.00 on the money line. Of these games, the favorite won 25 times, or 61 percent. Had you bet on these favorites, you would have lost money.

Let's see what happens when we apply our new knowledge of parlay wagering to the sample of 25 favorites winning (out of 41 plays) at -$2.00. If you bet these games $2.00 to win $1.00, you would have cashed 25 tickets at $1.00 per ticket, but you would have lost 16 times at $2.00 per ticket. That works out to $25 won, less $82 bet, equals -$57 net loss.

If you had parlayed those bets, the results would most likely be different. We say "most likely" because we have to assume some percentages. The first, and most noticeable, effect is that you only need to bet $41 instead of $82. Assuming that the percentages play out, you should win 16 of these 41 wagers. If we refer to our Parlay Payoff Chart below, we see that we should average $1.25 per win.
The bad news is that the $20 returned still results in a net loss. The good new is that you only had to wager half as much money to lose less than you would have with flat betting. With the parlay bet, you would have bet $41 and returned $20, for a net loss of $21.

i read the whole thing. the bolded part is incorrect. the odds of losing a 2 teamer with -130 and -140 is 70%, and the odds are winning that parlay are 30%. idk if it is still profitable given the new percentages

[YouHave2outs]

i read the whole thing. the bolded part is incorrect. the odds of losing a 2 teamer with -130 and -140 is 70%, and the odds are winning that parlay are 30%. idk if it is still profitable given the new percentages

the math is done above

[Evolved137]

I use money line faves with other money line faves in baseball 2 team parlay.
Now don't argue with me, because I can back this statement up with math.
"Betting a two team money line favorite paray in baseball actually eats into a bookmakers edge"

He's right. I always have found it so odd everyone on here doesn't take action on MLB season. That's 70% of all my action when it starts. I also know baseball and played my whole life, so i have more knowledge in the sport but behind all that, i do parlaying once in awhile. I'll normally sit and hunt and pound when i feel the outcome before the game on a line i find works out. Obviously this is what anyone does in every sport, but in baseball if your very sharp it's actually very easy. Total's in baseball is where good $ is, if you don't chase and are sharp, as stated.

[YouHave2outs]

He's right. I always have found it so odd everyone on here doesn't take action on MLB season. That's 70% of all my action when it starts. I also know baseball and played my whole life, so i have more knowledge in the sport but behind all that, i do parlaying once in awhile. I'll normally sit and hunt and pound when i feel the outcome before the game on a line i find works out. Obviously this is what anyone does in every sport, but in baseball if your very sharp it's actually very easy. Total's in baseball is where good $ is, if you don't chase and are sharp, as stated.

completely agree, baseball totals are where i do by far the best as well.

[Big Bear]

its not rigged