Cavs by 1, 2, or 3 points tonight? Middle try

44 Mag · 02-12-15, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by STAX

I bet $55 on the Cavs at pickem (-110) last night... then saw Bulls +3 (-110) this afternoon... so I bet the same amount on Bulls +3. So I either...

a) win $100 (Cavs win by 1 or 2)
b) win $50 (Cavs win by 3)
c) lose $5 (any other result)

Good play? I gotta believe a 3 pt or less Cavs win happens more than 6% of the time (assuming 1, 2, and 3 point wins as equal chance of happening), which is the breakeven point.

The Cav's have not had a three point win or loss since 12/04/14. They beat the Knicks in New York: 90-87. BOL tonight.

STAX · 02-12-15, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

The Cav's have not had a three point win or loss since 12/04/14. They beat the Knicks in New York: 90-87. BOL tonight.

and if you go from 12/4 to the beginning of the season, 5 out of 17 total games for the Cavs were decided 3 points or less. none of this matters much though. Cavs/Bulls always are close, and they went into OT once already this year. Remember it only has to happen around 1 out of 20 times for it to be profitable. Im willing to guess that any time you can get a 3 point gap at the same price you should take it...