Greg's Picks Thread

[ToyotaLC]

I thought they had been overrated all year, but they were still a good team. I don't think I'll necessarily fade them but I agree I'm going to stay away. They seemed to be over-performing and I want to see where they actually end up, my guess is 4th or 5th in the East. This loss to Charlotte was horrendous but I think this way just a really bad loss for them. Maybe I will fade them now that you mention it, but I'll chalk this one up to just variance and see how their next few go before I wager on them again probably.

I'm chasing this Heat/Blazers game. I rarely get to watch a full game through but this one I've been able to watch the whole first half, and I'm taking the Over for the game in the 2nd half.

Over 187.5 full game - 3 units. I feel good about this one.

Chasing....That word should be banned on this forum. I'm with you . Taking the over at 185.5

[gregmav1]

I know... I never "chase", but if I had had a good day I only would have laid one unit on this not 3 haha. And of course both teams looks absolutely disgraceful shooting. When Chris Kaman is the only guy making shots you know that both teams are garbage. Probably the worst shooting I've seen from the Blazers and Heat both all season so far. Good tempo which is what I was counting on, but atrocious shooting. Hope it turns around.

[gregmav1]

What a fu,cking awful half. Fu.ck the heat... 35 2nd half points, looked like complete shit, and both backup benches arent even trying to score, penetrating bs. Makes me furious how awful that went. Absolute bullshit.

5 points in the last 3:30. Sick. Going to rape tomorrow.

[ToyotaLC]

What a fu,cking awful half. Fu.ck the heat... 35 2nd half points, looked like complete shit, and both backup benches arent even trying to score, penetrating bs. Makes me furious how awful that went. Absolute bullshit.

5 points in the last 3:30. Sick. Going to rape tomorrow.

Agreed man, thought the over had an easy shot of hitting with 4 to go. Brutal.

[gregmav1]

Agreed man, thought the over had an easy shot of hitting with 4 to go. Brutal.

Yeah dude... doing the math in my head I was like alright, this is Over unless one of those really really awful final minutes happens.... and yep. Happens. Easily could have been trading layups and gone way over, but decide to make 2 shots. Awesome.

Awful day... if I'm not in the positive tomorrow then I'm just betting on the NFL games this weekend. Crushed them last weekend, hopefully a repeat.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Did you guys get that over doing live-betting? 187.5 and 185.5?

I had the game under 197. Walk in the park. Gregory, you should be reading my thread!!

[gregmav1]

Did you guys get that over doing live-betting? 187.5 and 185.5?

I had the game under 197. Walk in the park. Gregory, you should be reading my thread!!

Yeah it was live betting. And D2D, you know i read your thread everyday haha! I wouldn't have taken the game Over originally at 197 or whatever the line was and I actually thought the game would go under, but 1st half they were missing a ton of shots but had a great pace and I thought second half should go over 187. And it should have, until the last 5 minutes when replacements came in and made zero shots. I think it was the right Live bet, just unlucky.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Yeah it was live betting. And D2D, you know i read your thread everyday haha! I wouldn't have taken the game Over originally at 197 or whatever the line was and I actually thought the game would go under, but 1st half they were missing a ton of shots but had a great pace and I thought second half should go over 187. And it should have, until the last 5 minutes when replacements came in and made zero shots. I think it was the right Live bet, just unlucky.

I get it.....I was just worried about your number.

If you had asked me at halftime, I would not have recommended against the over in that spot.....especially at 185.5.....187.5 I would have been less likely to support.

[gregmav1]

Yeah when I saw toyota got 185.5 i was jealous, but oh well. Blazers did their part what I thought they would and kept up the pace and shots started falling more regularly, but Heat were absolutely atrocious in the 2nd half, 35 points total. Not going to hit an over if that happens.

[gregmav1]

Alright, trying to get back on the horse... losing day = only posting NFL/NCAAF picks this weekend.

Maple Leafs/Blue Jackets over 5.5 - 2 units... great play in my eyes.
Magic ML +140
Chicago Bulls ML +102
Hawks -2.5

I know Pistons are hot, but Hawks are hotter and the better team. Best of luck all. Trying to get back on track here.

[gregmav1]

Leafs/Blue Jackets gets 6 goals a minute into the 2nd period... Kinda wish I had laid more down on it since I felt so good, but oh well. Good start. Bulls down, but Hawks up big. Should be a profitable night.

Edit: Damn, they just announced Kobe was out. I was counting on him to fu.ck up the Lakers some more... Oh well.

[ToyotaLC]

Leafs/Blue Jackets gets 6 goals a minute into the 2nd period... Kinda wish I had laid more down on it since I felt so good, but oh well. Good start. Bulls down, but Hawks up big. Should be a profitable night.

Edit: Damn, they just announced Kobe was out. I was counting on him to fu.ck up the Lakers some more... Oh well.

Looking good. Only difference is I had -6 on the O/U with the Leaf. Glad you cashed.

[gregmav1]

Looking good. Only difference is I had -6 on the O/U with the Leaf. Glad you cashed.

Yeah I'd be very surprised if you don't get one more... When I saw it fall to 5.5 I jumped on it. Good luck getting that last one.

[gregmav1]

There ya go... Got it in the last minute haha. Good hit. Hawks overcome an awful 2nd half and still win the bet, so good night, going to be at least up. Hopefully Bulls can pull out a miracle comeback or Magic can win for a real nice night.

[ToyotaLC]

Greg, what are you thoughts on the NFL picks this weekend. I really don't want to play the money line on any of the favorites because I believe that one of the top 4 will fall. Your NBA prop picks seem sharp. What are you early thoughts ?

[gregmav1]

NFL games... I want to bet on every game, but not sure if I will...

The picks I'm most confident in are Seattle/Carolina Under 40. That's my strongest play. I think I'm going to do that, as well as parlay it with Seattle ML. I also think Seattle -10.5 is a good play, but I'm not positive I'm going to play that yet. I probably will.

I like Denver/Indy Over 53. I'm also thinking about taking Indy +8 but I'm not for sure on that yet.

New England/Baltimore, Dallas/Packers I don't have great reads on. I'm thinking possibly Under on the NE/Bal game, and Over on Packers/Dallas. Also thinking about NE -7. But tomorrow I'm really going to look over all those games and I'll post them here. But yeah, those are my leans so far. I really nailed last weekend's NFL games so I'm hoping to do the same this weekend.

[ToyotaLC]

NFL games... I want to bet on every game, but not sure if I will...

The picks I'm most confident in are Seattle/Carolina Under 40. That's my strongest play. I think I'm going to do that, as well as parlay it with Seattle ML. I also think Seattle -10.5 is a good play, but I'm not positive I'm going to play that yet. I probably will.

I like Denver/Indy Over 53. I'm also thinking about taking Indy +8 but I'm not for sure on that yet.

New England/Baltimore, Dallas/Packers I don't have great reads on. I'm thinking possibly Under on the NE/Bal game, and Over on Packers/Dallas. Also thinking about NE -7. But tomorrow I'm really going to look over all those games and I'll post them here. But yeah, those are my leans so far. I really nailed last weekend's NFL games so I'm hoping to do the same this weekend.

I like Indy +8. I think Manning will win, but it will be close. The other games are hard. Sports radio made one good point this afternoon. One of the four faves will likely get beaten this weekend. Question is, who.

[gregmav1]

I agree. These lines are right on the money. I honestly think this Car/Sea game goes way under unless Seattle scores 30 on their own. Possibly like 21-7. That's the only one I feel great about. Other than that, all these games' lines are real tough. I think Packers could lose, I think Patriots could lose. Ravens are great in playoffs, Rodgers isn't 100%. I think the only sure thing this weekend is Seattle winning and that game very likely going under. Other than that, any team could lose.

[gregmav1]

Both ML underdogs lost but still made a unit back today.
Today: 2-2 +1 Unit
YTD: 9-11, -2.46

[gregmav1]

Two early picks for tomorrow... NFL picks and later game picks will be posted tomorrow but before I go to bed here are two early-ish games.

Hornets/Knicks Under 188 -105
Stars/Avalanche Over 5.5 -118

See you all tomorrow.

[gregmav1]

Okay boys.... Here we go.... I killed last week's NFL games, here are my wagers for Saturday's games:

I bought points on the New England game -

New England -5.5 -135 1 unit
Seattle - 11 -106 1 unit
Parlay - Patriots ML + Seattle ML + Seattle Under 40 - +198 - 2 units to win 4 units
Parlay - Seattle ML + Seattle Under 40 +124 1 unit
Parlay - Patriots -5.5 + Seattle -11 + Seattle Under 40 - about +585 - .5 units to win 3 units

Basically, hit Seattle and New England, and Seattle Under. Maybe buy some points for New England.

Big bet is Seattle Win + New England Win + Seattle Under. That's my thinking on how the day goes.

[gregmav1]

Absolutely retarded Knicks game and retarded loss. 0-1 on day. Should have been a win but 4th quarter was both teams literally joking around and just shooting uncontested 3s. Knicks don't score above 20 in any quarter then score 38 in 4th. We lose by 4 points. Makes me furious.

[gregmav1]

Early plays go 1-1.

Along with the NFL plays already posted, adding:

Blue Jackets/Islanders Over 5.5 -114
Celtics/Raptors Over 208.5 -108

1 unit each

[gregmav1]

Adding Rockets -11 over Jazz -107

[Bostongambler]

Wtf Louganis, slow ur roll.

[gregmav1]

God damnit, that pick six seals it. Game was going perfectly for what we needed, then that 89 yard pick six happened, sucks. Only thing I was worried about was Cam Newton TO and he throws one at the end which kills the Under. Seattle scores 31 on their own, garbage. Narrowly missed out on an absolutely huge day. Both NFL Parlays killed by that Over.


Edit: then the classic garbage time TD but already done anyways. Seattle gets that stop instead of the pick 6, they run out the clock and game over on the under. Oh well.

Today: 4-6 -2.98
YTD -5.44

[gregmav1]

Not giving up yet... Really had some bad beats today I think.

Tomorrow: Dallas/GB Over 51.5 -120 3 units

[ToyotaLC]

Not giving up yet... Really had some bad beats today I think.

Tomorrow: Dallas/GB Over 51.5 -120 3 units

Tough Seattle game man. Funk, as you say, was shaping up so nicely. I just had the one little parley NE-Sea-U 40. Ugh. Anyway, I'm on the over with you. Lets get a barnburner to remember.

[gregmav1]

Yeah man... game was shaping up to be perfect, but last 5 minutes things just went crazy. Over looking alright so far. Rodgers is more hobbled than I thought he'd be, kinda worrisome.

[ToyotaLC]

Greg, where has this offence gone! Man, in tough for the over. Rogers looks like he is playing on one leg (even after 2 weeks off).

[gregmav1]

I know man. We'll see what happens, both teams playing conservative which I expected but yeah Rodgers is really hobbled which really hurts them. I assumed he was good to go but he's hurting. Game starting to open up now, hopefully we get some quick TDs.

[ToyotaLC]

I know man. We'll see what happens, both teams playing conservative which I expected but yeah Rodgers is really hobbled which really hurts them. I assumed he was good to go but he's hurting. Game starting to open up now, hopefully we get some quick TDs.

Ask and you have received!

[gregmav1]

Dude, why the hell do they not go for 2 there? Do you want to be down 1 headed into the 4th quarter? Or tied? If you miss the 2 and you're down 2, absolutely no different than being down 1. What a stupid play. Now a FG + TD doesn't win it for me and stays at 51. So stupid. Oh well, looking a lot better now.

[ToyotaLC]

Dude, why the hell do they not go for 2 there? Do you want to be down 1 headed into the 4th quarter? Or tied? If you miss the 2 and you're down 2, absolutely no different than being down 1. What a stupid play. Now a FG + TD doesn't win it for me and stays at 51. So stupid. Oh well, looking a lot better now.

Agreed. There are at least 2 more TD's in this game. Starting to open up.

[ToyotaLC]

Can Romo answer?