From Heater to Freezer!

[AchillesTG]

Damn, I was on a 70% heater and then the deep freeze kicked in. Last Saturday on NCF, I went 1-8! Don't think that has ever happened before. I got extremely lucky doubling down on the NFL and making back most of the loses.

That was so fricking stupid! I could have lost 30% of my bankroll in 2 days!
I am trying to get back to the "bet low when you are losing and bet more when you are winning".

I played fewer games and trying to lower the units.


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11/13/14	3-0-0	100.00%	724.38
11/12/14	0-2-0	0.00%	-700
11/11/14	1-0-0	100.00%	190.48
11/10/14	0-2-0	0.00%	-400
11/09/14	4-1-0	80.00%	2208.39
11/08/14	1-8-0	11.11%	-2214.29
11/07/14	1-1-0	50.00%	72.73
11/06/14	1-2-0	33.33%	-285.71
11/05/14	2-2-0	50.00%	-145.45
11/04/14	4-4-0	50.00%	-211.4
11/02/14	4-3-0	57.14%	-340.52
Totals	21-25-0	45.65%	-1101.39

If you want to fade, here are my plays tonight:

All are 2U Plays:

UCF -20.5 (-110) NCAAF [General]
11/14/14 08:00 PM ET

Charlotte Bobcats vs Phoenix Suns Over 199.5 (-110) NBA [General]
11/14/14 09:00 PM ET

Auburn -10 (-110) NCAAB [General]
11/14/14 10:00 PM ET

Went from all time high of $31,000 to

[Dirty Sanchez]

I'm running in a race tomorrow....scheduled to be snowing and 28 degrees....friggin crazy...last week it was 70 and Sunny......Damn My betting has been the same as you

[Russian Rocket]

damn not this fukking small ass font again

I'm pretty sure it has everything to do with where you copy this text/table from

good luck with the bets dude!

[AchillesTG]

I'm running in a race tomorrow....scheduled to be snowing and 28 degrees....friggin crazy...last week it was 70 and Sunny......Damn My betting has been the same as you

Damn that sounds like Texas weather. Where are you running?

[AchillesTG]

damn not this fukking small ass font again

I'm pretty sure it has everything to do with where you copy this text/table from

good luck with the bets dude!

It must be Linux/Firefox that I am running. Hell, I can't see my own posts, LOL.

[Dirty Sanchez]

Damn that sounds like Texas weather. Where are you running?

Kansas City....LongView Half-Marathon...going to suck royally

[AchillesTG]

Kansas City....LongView Half-Marathon...going to suck royally

My Brother has a condo in Downtown KC and he absolutely loves the place! He loved all the activity during the Royals Series Run!

[Bostongambler]

That's the way it happens.

[KVB]

"bet low when you are losing and bet more when you are winning".

This is dangerous advice and a money management nightmare. I think you saw it play out with one bad day.

I’ve posted multiple times on this subject in the past so I won’t keep going here except to suggest that, instead of betting lower while losing, don’t bet at all when you are losing.

The problem, of course, becomes knowing when we are in a win streak and when we are in a losing streak. Some say and it seems logical that you can only know when you just had one of these and can’t know if you are still in one.

That being said, tracking your personal bets as you have can tell you a lot about where the markets may be heading in relation to your betting criteria. These are dangerous waters and it takes experience to be willing to adjust your bets accordingly. I’m not saying you don’t have and don’t do these things.

Good luck and watch out for those 0-7 or 1-8 days. I noticed that day you had 9 bets, more than the other days. Over the long haul, playing less plays (as you posted) when things are tough is going to end up better than betting less per bet. It’s the nature of the mathematics involved.

Good luck getting back to 31K, patience will get you there.

[AchillesTG]

This is dangerous advice and a money management nightmare. I think you saw it play out with one bad day.

I’ve posted multiple times on this subject in the past so I won’t keep going here except to suggest that, instead of betting lower while losing, don’t bet at all when you are losing.

The problem, of course, becomes knowing when we are in a win streak and when we are in a losing streak. Some say and it seems logical that you can only know when you just had one of these and can’t know if you are still in one.

That being said, tracking your personal bets as you have can tell you a lot about where the markets may be heading in relation to your betting criteria. These are dangerous waters and it takes experience to be willing to adjust your bets accordingly. I’m not saying you don’t have and don’t do these things.

Good luck and watch out for those 0-7 or 1-8 days. I noticed that day you had 9 bets, more than the other days. Over the long haul, playing less plays (as you posted) when things are tough is going to end up better than betting less per bet. It’s the nature of the mathematics involved.

Good luck getting back to 31K, patience will get you there.

Thanks Man!

If you have a decent bankroll and a little bit of skill, it is like the stock market.
You will have big swings, but in the long run, it keeps getting higher! I believe last Nov. 2nd, I finally made it over the 10k hump. Each time, I hit a milestone, I hit a losing streak and have to keep fighting back.

[pavyracer]

If you lose a bet then bet double the next. Lose again bet quadruple. Lose again bet 8x. That's how you win long term.

[AchillesTG]

If you lose a bet then bet double the next. Lose again bet quadruple. Lose again bet 8x. That's how you win long term.

I did some testing on the Martingale System betting ML. After 5 iterations, I was having to bet almost $100,000 to make a $500 profit. I understand what you are saying, in a way I have been doubling down and got lucky. With my bankroll, I figured I could go 0-43 to lose the entire roll.

However, doubling down every time is almost like betting red on the roulette wheel, sometimes black comes up 20 straight times. Your bankroll has to be huge to survive the worst case scenario.

[AchillesTG]

I think I will make a small profit tonight. I played against Louisville, but did not post it. If Auburn -10 NCAAB loses, I may win $15.

Fade my picks for tomorrow:

2U Plays

Florida State -2.5 (-115) NCAAF [General]
11/15/14 08:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh +2 (-105) NCAAF [General]
11/15/14 12:30 PM ET

UTEP -6 (-110) NCAAF [General]
11/15/14 10:00 PM ET

[AchillesTG]

Maybe I am starting to heat up again!

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11/14/14	2-1-0	66.67%	225.72
11/13/14	3-0-0	100.00%	724.38

[AchillesTG]

I think I recovered from the freezer.

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11/17/14	1-1-0	50.00%	-118.18
11/16/14	2-1-0	66.67%	215.58
11/15/14	3-1-0	75.00%	424.51
11/14/14	2-1-1	66.67%	225.72
11/13/14	3-0-0	100.00%	724.38
Totals	11-4-1	73.33%	$1472.01

3U Play
Sacramento Kings -145
NBA [General]
11/18/14 10:00 PM ET