Parlay for the weekend

[Bostongambler]

Bear nooooooooooooooooooooooo

Smoke good call on Sac game last night. I tried to send u 50 points but it wouldn't let me.

[Urbanwildlife]

Take it to the pay window today Big Bear!
(Green for money)

[Smoke]

Smoke good call on Sac game last night. I tried to send u 50 points but it wouldn't let me.

No problem boo. Yea u gotta be a pro to send more than two points

[Bostongambler]

[Big Bear]

LOL not going anywhere.....Ohio State will be exposed tonight....worse on both sides of the ball HUGE bucks fan...but not an idiot

Fake Buckeye

[Big Bear]

Haters go fukk yourself

To all my crew . Tail this and get yo money right.


Arizona State ML over Notre Shame

TCU ML over Kansas State

Alabama ML over LSU

Ohio State ML over Michigan State

Eagles ML over Panthers


I have extreme confidence in this Parlay. Lets cash this ticket

confidence is the #1 key in this business.

[Big Bear]

thinking bout putting a lil bit on Panthers +6.5 in hopes for a nice middle

[Bet10Heinekens]

76297602-1

11/3/2014 4:39PM

Parlay

Football - 473 Indianapolis Colts -165 for Game Basketball - 508 Dallas Mavericks -555 for Game Basketball - 512 Los Angeles Clippers -520 for Game Soccer - 143543 Real Madrid -400 for Game Football - 103 Toledo -530 for Game Basketball - 516 San Antonio Spurs -395 for Game Basketball - 702 Houston Rockets -280 for Game Football - 111 Clemson -1250 for Game Football - 113 Memphis -330 for Game Football - 115 Utah State -310 for Game Football - 117 Penn State -245 for Game Football - 129 Wisconsin -850 for Game Football - 161 Alabama -285 for Game Football - 186 Colorado State -1100 for Game Football - 193 Oregon -355 for Game

[Bet10Heinekens]

Ticket#:8382353
Nov 08 12:06 PM
Nov 08 12:05 PM
Nov 08 12:35 PM
Nov 08 07:22 PM
Nov 08 08:13 PM
Nov 08 10:00 PM
INTERNET / -1Nov 08 09:29 AM
CFB
CFB
CFB
CFB
CFB
CFB
PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
[117] PENN STATE -260
[121] LOUISIANA TECH -180
[133] DUKE -190
[137] LOUISVILLE -160
[161] ALABAMA -270
[193] OREGON -335

[Urbanwildlife]

Excellent work my friends, and take it to the pay window tomorrow!

[Big Bear]

nice love it when the bookies take a beating

[STAX]

thinking bout putting a lil bit on Panthers +6.5 in hopes for a nice middle

Good call on the parlay Bear, you def have a talent for picking winners... I would put something on Panthers +6.5 as well. What was the odds on this parlay hitting? Im guessing 12 to 1ish? So $100 pays $1200... I'd put $300 on Panthers +6.5, promise your self a few hundo regardless, and have a nice chance to middle and win it all!!!

Might even be a good idea to buy a point and take Panthers +7.5... I think in a case of trying to middle it is worth it to buy a point here, especially going from 6.5 to 7.5

[Big Bear]

$100 to win $1100

i gotta hedge atleast something bc i had a really awful week last week and need to get my money right

[Dollars2Donuts]

$100 to win $1100

i gotta hedge atleast something bc i had a really awful week last week and need to get my money right

Bear...hedging is stupid....you know this....it costs you tons of juice. Make your parlays with less teams.

[STAX]

Proof why hedging is -EV, and not middling is -EV

You can do any of the following options. For the sake of easy math, we are going to say Philly wins the game 75% of the time (3 out of 4). Of those Philly wins, we are saying Philly will win by 7 or less 50% of the time (1 out of 2). (3/4) * (1/2) = (3/8) or 37.5% of the time Philly wins by 7 or less points (so we win both our bets and MIDDLE IT!!).

Philly wins the game 75% of the time (3/4)
Carolina wins the game 25% of the time (1/4)
Philly wins the game by 7 or less 37.5% of the time (3/8)
Philly wins the game by 8 or more 37.5% of the time (3/8)

1. Do nothing. 3/4 of the time Philly wins and we are ahead (+$1100). 1/4 of the time Carolina wins and we are down (-$100).

If Philly wins (75% of the time): (3/4) * $1100 = ($825.00)
If Carolina wins (25% of the time): (1/4) * (-$100) = (-$25.00)

Add the two totals, and our expected value here is (+$800.00)

2. Hedge "x" amount on Carolina ML (+250). We will hedge for equal profit no matter which team wins. That amount would be $350 ($350 to win $875). We will profit $775 if Carolina wins ($875 of the hedge bet minus the $100 parlay). We will profit $750 if Philly wins. Our expected value is calculated as following based on us capping the game as 3/4 Philly wins and 1/4 Carolina wins:

If Carolina wins (25% of the time) : (1/4) * $775 = ($193.75)
If Philly wins (75% of the time) : (3/4) * $750 = ($562.50).

Add the two totals, and our expected value here is (+$756.25)

3. Attempt a middle by betting Carolina +7.5 (-135). We will attempt to middle for equal profit if we only win one of the bets. That amount would be $675 ($675 to win $500). We profit $400 if Carolina wins the game outright ($500 minus $100 parlay). We profit $425 if Philly wins the game by 8 or more ($1100 minus $675). We profit $1600 if Philly wins the game by 7 pts or less.

EV calculation:
If Carolina wins (25% of the time): ($400) * (1/4) = (+$100.00)
If Philly wins by 8 or more (37.5% of the time) = ($425) * (3/8) = (+$159.38)
If Philly wins by 7 or less (37.5% of the time) = ($1600) * (3/8) = (+$600.00)

Add the 3 totals, and our expected value is (+$859.38)

Obviously adjusting your handicap of the percantages of the time each teams wins and by how much will effect your expected values. So that plays into deciding whether or not to middle as well.

If you truly handicap the game the way I do, then middling is more +EV than leaving it alone. And obviously hedging is always -EV.

[Spedizzo]

Bear hedge

You killed it last night

Mark Sanchez still a question mark

You never know when Cam will have a good game

[Sledge187]

Great job! Nice to see someone winning.

[slo mo]

I think you will have no problem with Carolina Monday night. I highly doubt if Cam gets embarrassed twice in the prime time slot. Mark Sanchez will fold under the lights. Good luck

[PaperTrail07]

Sharp As Razor Bear.....PROPS

Haters go fukk yourself

To all my crew . Tail this and get yo money right.


Arizona State ML over Notre Shame

TCU ML over Kansas State

Alabama ML over LSU

Ohio State ML over Michigan State

Eagles ML over Panthers


I have extreme confidence in this Parlay. Lets cash this ticket

[Urbanwildlife]

Big Bear is .......

[fried cheese]

Proof why hedging is -EV, and not middling is -EV

You can do any of the following options. For the sake of easy math, we are going to say Philly wins the game 75% of the time (3 out of 4). Of those Philly wins, we are saying Philly will win by 7 or less 50% of the time (1 out of 2). (3/4) * (1/2) = (3/8) or 37.5% of the time Philly wins by 7 or less points (so we win both our bets and MIDDLE IT!!).

Philly wins the game 75% of the time (3/4)
Carolina wins the game 25% of the time (1/4)
Philly wins the game by 7 or less 37.5% of the time (3/8)
Philly wins the game by 8 or more 37.5% of the time (3/8)

1. Do nothing. 3/4 of the time Philly wins and we are ahead (+$1100). 1/4 of the time Carolina wins and we are down (-$100).

If Philly wins (75% of the time): (3/4) * $1100 = ($825.00)
If Carolina wins (25% of the time): (1/4) * (-$100) = (-$25.00)

Add the two totals, and our expected value here is (+$800.00)

2. Hedge "x" amount on Carolina ML (+250). We will hedge for equal profit no matter which team wins. That amount would be $350 ($350 to win $875). We will profit $775 if Carolina wins ($875 of the hedge bet minus the $100 parlay). We will profit $750 if Philly wins. Our expected value is calculated as following based on us capping the game as 3/4 Philly wins and 1/4 Carolina wins:

If Carolina wins (25% of the time) : (1/4) * $775 = ($193.75)
If Philly wins (75% of the time) : (3/4) * $750 = ($562.50).

Add the two totals, and our expected value here is (+$756.25)

3. Attempt a middle by betting Carolina +7.5 (-135). We will attempt to middle for equal profit if we only win one of the bets. That amount would be $675 ($675 to win $500). We profit $400 if Carolina wins the game outright ($500 minus $100 parlay). We profit $425 if Philly wins the game by 8 or more ($1100 minus $675). We profit $1600 if Philly wins the game by 7 pts or less.

EV calculation:
If Carolina wins (25% of the time): ($400) * (1/4) = (+$100.00)
If Philly wins by 8 or more (37.5% of the time) = ($425) * (3/8) = (+$159.38)
If Philly wins by 7 or less (37.5% of the time) = ($1600) * (3/8) = (+$600.00)

Add the 3 totals, and our expected value is (+$859.38)

Obviously adjusting your handicap of the percantages of the time each teams wins and by how much will effect your expected values. So that plays into deciding whether or not to middle as well.

If you truly handicap the game the way I do, then middling is more +EV than leaving it alone. And obviously hedging is always -EV.

unless you are saying the carolina +7.5 is +ev by itself then your percentages are wrong. if you assume the bet carolina +7 hits half the time on average then your percentages should be:

carolina wins 1/4
philly wins 7 or less 1/4
philly wins 7 or more 1/2

betting is only +ev if you think the odds they give are wrong

[Big Bear]

First off, I wish you luck, but you said your back is against the wall. This is your wager for the weekend that you were going undefeated on??? You pick 4 college games that can go either way on and you think you they all go your way and will cash this?? Second it is a dumb bet and better to bet straight then hit a 5 team parlay that you of all people have no luck. I would reconsider!!L

[boomer62]

So,you picked 3 ML favorites and a live dog(I had Ohio State and the over,btw. ) with your luck Carolina may win outright. And betting 5 team parlays are dumb, but every now and then one comes thru. And for the record, I like Carolina plus 7 here.

[Big Bear]

point is you were heckling me.

point is not to make this shit harder than it needs to be.

so what i didn't put any long shots in the parlay. Winning is all that matters.

take the low hanging fruit when the bookies offer it.

[boomer62]

Actually wasn't heckling you at all. You come on here and post some some dumb things and you bring attention to yourself. I just stated the obvious that your capping sucks. I wish you the best though and nothing personal.

[Urbanwildlife]

Big Bear is .......

[paco]

Haters go fukk yourself

To all my crew . Tail this and get yo money right.


Arizona State ML over Notre Shame

TCU ML over Kansas State

Alabama ML over LSU

Ohio State ML over Michigan State

Eagles ML over Panthers


I have extreme confidence in this Parlay. Lets cash this ticket

nice winner

[Smoke]

[Big Bear]

I got one for this coming weekend too


$146 to win $1059

Ohio State -10 (-150) over Minnesota
FSU ML -128 over Miami
Auburn +3.5 (-150) vs Georgia
Colts ML (-150) over Patriots


will add write-ups later in the week. Got a pretty busy day today.

[boomer62]

i got one for this coming weekend too


$146 to win $1059

ohio state -10 (-150) over minnesota
fsu ml -128 over miami
auburn +3.5 (-150) vs georgia
colts ml (-150) over patriots


will add write-ups later in the week. Got a pretty busy day today.

please don't (146?)

[BigdaddyQH]

I got one for this coming weekend too


$146 to win $1059

Ohio State -10 (-150) over Minnesota
FSU ML -128 over Miami
Auburn +3.5 (-150) vs Georgia
Colts ML (-150) over Patriots


will add write-ups later in the week. Got a pretty busy day today.

The Florida State play is just plain dumb. Why lay 128 when you can lay 110 and give one point, which is absolutely worthless in College Football. It will not matter because you will lose the Colts game.

On another topic, you do NOT have a "crew" and I never want to see you using that term again. You are NOT Italian, and NOT involved with any Mob. If you want to meet a real "Crew", that can be arranged. Until then, use a different term boy. We Italians feel insulted when some dumb arse loser like yourself thinks he has a "crew". Use a term that you hicks from South Carolina like.

[pavyracer]

Haters go fukk yourself

To all my crew . Tail this and get yo money right.


Arizona State ML over Notre Shame

TCU ML over Kansas State

Alabama ML over LSU

Ohio State ML over Michigan State

Eagles ML over Panthers


I have extreme confidence in this Parlay. Lets cash this ticket

Nice hit Big Bear. You are getting better. How is your cousin lemart5?

[Killer_Demo]

If you want to meet a real "Crew", that can be arranged.

I didnt know USC shower-boy's had a "crew"

[BigdaddyQH]

I didnt know USC shower-boy's had a "crew"

We would love to meet you, you little lover of males. You and your gay team in Fresno will not even go to a bowl game this season. What happened? Did you not service that team this season? Are your STD's flaring up again. That is what people like you are famous for. We will run into you one day, and then you will spread your legs, bend over, and kiss your worthless arse good-bye. That day is coming. There are a lot of people in here who hate your queer guts.

[Killer_Demo]

We would love to meet you, you little lover of males. You and your gay team in Fresno will not even go to a bowl game this season. What happened? Did you not service that team this season? Are your STD's flaring up again. That is what people like you are famous for. We will run into you one day, and then you will spread your legs, bend over, and kiss your worthless arse good-bye. That day is coming. There are a lot of people in here who hate your queer guts.

shower-boy queer