Baltimore (ALCS - Gamer 3) at Kansas City

[stevenash]

Not going to wager this game tonight, can't fade KC, to fade this magic carpet ride right now is risky business, but going into this series, the best match up for KC was game 2, that played out true to form, and Baltimore's best match up, most likely game to win is game 3, this match up.

Game is pretty much a man to an pick 'em.
Chen (LHP) is the better starter, 16 game winner 3.54 ERA 1.20 WH/IP.
Guthrie, I would describe as servicable, back end of the rotation guy, 13 game winner, 4.13 ERA 1.30 WH/IP

Also need to know that Chen had a better season this year on the road as opposed to home.
www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=chenwe02&year=&t=p

Kaufman plays large, some of Baltimore's power may be negated, Guthie gave up 23 homers, not that bad, and has had success against Batimore's big hitters in the past.

You can make a case for KC tonight, home team, momentum, Guthrie's past success against Balt.
You can make a case for Balt tonight, must win (if you buy into that angle) better starter .....

I don't want any part of this game, can't fade KC, can't fade the better starter here at a very fair price.

Vegas is making this game very affordable for both sides tonight.

<small>Reduced Juice - Internet Only</small>
Mon 10/13		959 Baltimore Orioles W Chen - L	<input id="editx" name="S1_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -1½ +155	<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -107	<input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o7½ +100
8:05PM		960 Kansas City Royals J Guthrie - R	<input id="editx" name="S2_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +1½ -165	<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +102	<input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u7½ -110
Mon 10/13		1861 Kansas City Royals (Series)		<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -405
8:05PM		1862 Baltimore Orioles (Series)		<input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +360

KANSAS CITY ROYALS CAREER STATISTICS VS. WEI-YIN CHEN BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS Norichika Aoki 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.571 Billy Butler 18 8 2 1 2 4 1 3 0.444 0.474 1 1.474 Lorenzo Cain 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 Jarrod Dyson 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Alcides Escobar 17 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 0.294 0.294 0.353 0.647 Alex Gordon 16 5 0 0 1 1 0 5 0.313 0.313 0.5 0.813 Eric Hosmer 17 7 1 0 2 5 1 0 0.412 0.444 0.824 1.268 Raul Ibanez 3 2 2 0 0 1 0 1 0.667 0.667 1.333 2 Omar Infante 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0.167 0.167 0.667 0.833 Mike Moustakas 6 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.333 0.333 0.5 0.833 Jayson Nix 5 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0.2 0.375 0.2 0.575 Salvador Perez 13 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.154 0.2 0.154 0.354 Josh Willingham 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 Totals 129 41 8 1 6 17 6 15 0.318 0.343 0.535 0.878 BALTIMORE ORIOLES CAREER STATISTICS VS. JEREMY GUTHRIE BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS Nelson Cruz 24 6 1 0 0 6 3 3 0.25 0.31 0.292 0.602 Chris Davis 19 3 0 0 2 2 2 6 0.158 0.238 0.474 0.712 Alejandro De Aza 32 8 2 0 0 1 4 4 0.25 0.351 0.313 0.664 Ryan Flaherty 8 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0.25 0.333 0.25 0.583 J.J. Hardy 14 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 0.214 0.214 0.214 0.429 Nick Hundley 5 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0.4 0.4 0.6 1 Kelly Johnson 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.091 0 0.091 Adam Jones 12 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0.083 0.154 0.083 0.237 Nick Markakis 12 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.25 0.308 0.25 0.558 Jonathan Schoop 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 Delmon Young 27 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0.148 0.207 0.185 0.392 Totals 224 48 6 1 2 16 15 27 0.214 0.267 0.277 0.544 GUTHRIE V. BALT 2014 DATE VS. FINAL IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit 16-May vs BAL L 4-0 8 8 4 4 1 1 2 13 17 116 26-Apr @ BAL L 3-2 7 6 2 2 0 1 3 11 12 97 2013 DATE VS. FINAL IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit 25-Jul vs BAL W 7-1 6 6 1 1 0 1 5 8 9 102 9-May @ BAL W 6-2 6 7 2 1 1 3 3 8 12 100 CHEN V. KC DATE VS. FINAL IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit 15-May @ KC W 2-1 5.1 7 1 1 0 1 1 13 8 95 26-Apr vs KC W 3-2 7 9 2 2 0 2 6 12 12 102 2013 DATE VS. FINAL IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit 24-Jul @ KC L 4-3 7.1 7 3 3 2 0 3 7 18 107 7-May vs KC W 4-3 6.1 9 2 2 0 0 2 14 10 80

[Pauulzcappin]

Haven't read about the weather but I like the over in this one

[Bostongambler]

I agree there is no way one can fade the Royals right now.

[stevenash]

Haven't read about the weather but I like the over in this one

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/kansas-city-mo/64106/weather-forecast/329441

[Pauulzcappin]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/kan...orecast/329441

what do you think rain favors? over or under?

balty could win because guthrie is kc's worst starter but chen got pounded silly last time up

[stevenash]

This game, truth be told, is a dart throw.
Probably go with the momentum.
Close game I am sensing though

[importmoon]

I wonder what was the extra inning prop on this game... just wonder..

[Spedizzo]

I really wish the As closed that wild card game out

I can't stand the Royals

I hope Chen throws a heater at Billy Butler's fat head

[importmoon]

and BTW nash thx for your breakdown for this game... BIG help...good job..

[thebestthereis]

I agree there is no way one can fade the Royals right now.

anyone using that word or betting against royals as home dogs or until they lose is clueless, period. they might lose, but lose your shirt is more likely to happen. good luck!

[importmoon]

It's like a pitcher having a 0-2 count... you had a lot of options on the next pitch...on the batter side you r against the wall...

[RollinDo]

Why is KC +1.5 at -165 such a good line?
That's where I'll be on this one...as long as game doesn't go to extras, think it's a very solid play.