Phil Steele's releases for NCAA(f): He loves KSU tonight

lupe · 09-18-14, 11:14 AM

he appears to LIKE them, if he LOVED them he'd be picking them to win.

stevenash · 09-18-14, 11:14 AM

Rest of Steele's releases

Memphis Tigers (-12) versus Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

This measuring-stick tilt against a Middle Tennessee program that has won three straight in this series is definitely the circled game on the 2014 Memphis football calendar. The Tigers dropped a controversial 17-15 decision in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, last season, and the revenge match sets up nicely. The Blue Raiders outlasted Western Kentucky 50-47 in a draining, three-overtime affair, while the Tigers rested with an open date. The best Memphis offense since at least 2008 will be on display, along with the AAC's top defensive line. We're disappointed in a price that's moved considerably since opening closer to a touchdown, but Memphis has the clear edge, given the emphasis they're placing on this one.
ATS pick: Memphis 42, Middle Tennessee 21
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</center>South Alabama Jaguars (-2.5) versus Georgia Southern Eagles

Georgia Southern appears to be in very good hands with former Sam Houston State head coach Willie Fritz, as the Eagles' three games thus far have been two near-misses versus ACC squads (a 24-23 loss to North Carolina State and 42-38 loss to Georgia Tech) and an 83-9 blowout win over Savannah State. We love what Fritz has brought to Statesboro, Georgia, but South Alabama is our pick to win the Sun Belt and is in better shape coming into this matchup than an Eagles squad off an emotional, last-second loss to Georgia Tech.
ATS pick: South Alabama 28, Georgia Southern 23
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</center>Clemson Tigers (+17) at Florida State Seminoles

Clemson is clearly still trying to find its way offensively, but this is a bundle of points from a Florida State squad that doesn't appear capable of consistency. Jameis Winston's first-half suspension dropped the number a field goal or so. With plenty of questions about the defense, running game and coaching staff, we can't take this team seriously as a contender to repeat as national champions, and through two games, the Noles are 0-2 against the spread and haven't looked anything like a team with which we'd want to lay heavy weight.
ATS pick: Florida State 27, Clemson 21
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</center>Navy Midshipmen (-6) versus Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Rutgers poured its soul into its inaugural Big Ten game, and the inability to hold on against a Penn State squad that is very much rebuilding was certainly a bad sign for the program's chances in the rugged Big Ten East. Ken Niumatolo's best Navy squad yet is better equipped to compete in the trenches than previous editions, and if pivot Keenan Reynolds can stay healthy, this could be an 11-win team. Annapolis, Maryland, is a tough assignment for a Rutgers squad trying to get off the mat, especially since the Knights haven't seen Navy and its triple-option offense since Greg Schiano was running the program.
ATS pick: Navy 35, Rutgers 28
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</center>Alabama Crimson Tide (-14.5) versus Florida Gators

Florida's offense has clearly made improvements over last season's anemic attack, but the Gators remain a team that beats itself. We still see six losses in 2014, and at this price, Florida is an attractive fade even, with a still-developing Alabama that we won't trust to get on top of a big spot all that often. Bama is figuring things out at quarterback and in the back seven. This team has far better unity than last season's squad, though, and, despite unimpressive early returns, the Tide has the talent and coaching to field a contender.
ATS pick: Alabama 34, Florida 14
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</center>Mississippi State Bulldogs (+9.5) at LSU Tigers

LSU is another team sporting a lot of youth but has the talent and coaching to develop into a serious contender by season's end. In the meantime, there might not be enough offensive consistency to lay points to quality conference foes. Mississippi State certainly qualifies as such a foe, as the Bulldogs have the personnel in both trenches to compete with every team in the SEC. Quarterback Dak Prescott is legit, plus there's lots of experience at the skill positions and an all-conference caliber player in each defensive position group. This is Dan Mullen's best team yet, and a very favorable schedule makes State a darkhorse in the SEC West.
ATS pick: LSU 20, Mississippi State 17
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</center>Washington State Cougars (+24) versus Oregon Ducks

A letdown performance after the big win over Michigan State is understandable, and was part of the attraction last week, but even so, the Ducks' defense again looked vulnerable in allowing 440 yards to a ham-and-egg Wyoming offense. It's hard to get enthusiastic about an underachieving Washington State bunch, and this is the lowest price in this series since Mike Bellotti's last team. We love the combination of Mike Leach's offense, quarterback Connor Halliday and all those experienced receivers, and we know this team is in much better shape on the defensive line. Whether the overall defense, the offensive line or the team's intangibles are really improved ... well, the jury's still out, and we've had some concern about the last item since Leach abdicated responsibility for last season's New Mexico Bowl debacle. Still, the Cougars are good enough to press on with the plan to fade an Oregon outfit that, ranked No. 2., is the most overranked team in the polls.
ATS pick: Oregon 45, Washington State 28
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</center>BYU Cougars (-14) versus Virginia Cavaliers

One of the principles we teach is that each team is different each week, and that results must be examined in their own isolated context. It's too simple to just say Virginia hung tough with UCLA and beat Louisville. What's more accurate is to say the Cavaliers hung with "Week 1 UCLA" and beat "Week 3 Louisville." Knowing how those opponents performed relative to their own norms is an important part of understanding Virginia's résumé, and, in this specific case, both delivered a C game against the Cavs. Virginia's offense remains dysfunctional, and the defense, while good, is getting too much credit for holding down opposing offenses that turned a poor week of preparation into an off day in Charlottesville, Virginia. We touted BYU's chances at a 12-0 campaign in the offseason, and three games in, the Cougars look potent but sloppy. Virginia can at least be counted on to give the penalty yardage back, so we'll lay two touchdowns in what should be a tough environment for the visiting Wahoos.
ATS pick: BYU 35, Virginia 14
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</center>Texas A&M Aggies (-32) at SMU Mustangs

We're still not optimistic about the development of the Aggies' defense, but an SMU team that can't score will make a lot of units look pretty stout. Even apart from the drama surrounding June Jones' resignation, the Mustangs are still a young team that hasn't yet learned how to prepare, let alone compete with more talented teams. The offense is especially green, and it's hard to keep pace with an attack like Texas A&M's when every first down is such a challenging adventure. The Aggies didn't play that well in last week's 38-10 win over Rice and will be looking for crisper execution.
ATS pick: Texas A&M 55, SMU 7

stevenash · 09-18-14, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by lupe

he appears to LIKE them, if he LOVED them he'd be picking them to win.

It's his top rated play

daneblazer · 09-18-14, 11:45 AM

I'm 4 of these...not sure if that's a good or bad thing

recon1 · 09-18-14, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

Kansas State has won 11 games the past five seasons that Bill Snyder's offense has returned its starting quarterback. That could certainly happen again as the Cats sport one of the top quarterback-receiver duos in the nation in Jake Waters and Tyler Lockett. The Wildcats will be favored in all but three games. Expect Lockett to be unleashed in the return game for the first time all season and for Kansas State to produce plenty of big plays against a suspect Auburn defense. Stops will be at a premium for both sides, as Auburn's offense is virtually unstoppable. We'll forecast a high-scoring finish despite limited possessions.
Kansas State's enthusiastic crowd and offseason attention to this matchup are key advantages, but Auburn can exploit the Cats' lack of speed at linebacker. Also, Gus Malzahn's under-appreciated special-teams wizardry blunts what is, most weeks, a significant edge for Kansas State. Right now it's tough to call what looks like a genuine toss-up, but we do know we take both of these teams very seriously as conference championship contenders and will happily take points in a game that shapes up as a tightly contested shootout.
ATS pick: Auburn 41, Kansas State 38

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He's full of shit. Just hedging some vegas books for side $.

IGotKidsToFeed · 09-18-14, 11:52 AM

Well... based on his final score wouldn't the best play really be the over...

jjgold · 09-18-14, 11:54 AM

Phil Steele never made a bet in his life

That's all you need to know

R.P. McMurphy · 09-18-14, 11:57 AM

One thing I don't like is Auburn O-line avg weight has 40lbs on Cats! This team is averaging over 300 rushing on offense and see no reason that won't continue tonight. Hate laying pts on road but leaning that way. K-St supposed to have record crowd tonight but simply outclassed here. Fastest way to shut the crowd up and and kill the morale of the defense will be just too ram it down their throats all night and keep chains moving. Also expect Auburns defense to get a couple more key stops than Cats will come up with. Lean Auburn here but still on fence a little. Hmm

Urbanwildlife · 09-18-14, 12:01 PM

Lets get our resident expert on Phil Steele, BigMOUTHQH weigh in on his thoughts of Steeles picks.

GO AUBURN TIGERS!

texhooper · 09-18-14, 12:03 PM

steele was pretty big on another road favorite last week, indiana, and they lost outright to bowling green.

stevenash · 09-18-14, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Phil Steele never made a bet in his life

That's all you need to know

Everybody has made a bet at one time in their lifetime.

If it moves, you can bet on it.

sandman0713 · 09-18-14, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy

One thing I don't like is Auburn O-line avg weight has 40lbs on Cats! This team is averaging over 300 rushing on offense and see no reason that won't continue tonight. Hate laying pts on road but leaning that way. K-St supposed to have record crowd tonight but simply outclassed here. Fastest way to shut the crowd up and and kill the morale of the defense will be just too ram it down their throats all night and keep chains moving. Also expect Auburns defense to get a couple more key stops than Cats will come up with. Lean Auburn here but still on fence a little. Hmm

Wasnt going to even post anything about this game...because the over is all I care about...but posts like this about the auburn o is mainly what I have see here. Look at the kstate o against the auburn d as well. Taking in all the numbers and past performance from the last two years...kstate should carve up the auburn d as well. Factor in a huge home advantage and a coach that is very experienced in beating teams with better talent...you at least have something to look at. Not saying bet kstate...just don't want to see a bunch of people getting wiped out on another crazy tnf game. When Thursday or Friday night lines look too easy...give pause. Anyway...gl all. Over looks like the best play to me...tho only 2 units because it is thurs night and it would like to have some money to bet with Saturday...lol.

boomer62 · 09-18-14, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Kansas State has won 11 games the past five seasons that Bill Snyder's offense has returned its starting quarterback. That could certainly happen again as the Cats sport one of the top quarterback-receiver duos in the nation in Jake Waters and Tyler Lockett. The Wildcats will be favored in all but three games. Expect Lockett to be unleashed in the return game for the first time all season and for Kansas State to produce plenty of big plays against a suspect Auburn defense. Stops will be at a premium for both sides, as Auburn's offense is virtually unstoppable. We'll forecast a high-scoring finish despite limited possessions.
Kansas State's enthusiastic crowd and offseason attention to this matchup are key advantages, but Auburn can exploit the Cats' lack of speed at linebacker. Also, Gus Malzahn's under-appreciated special-teams wizardry blunts what is, most weeks, a significant edge for Kansas State. Right now it's tough to call what looks like a genuine toss-up, but we do know we take both of these teams very seriously as conference championship contenders and will happily take points in a game that shapes up as a tightly contested shootout.
ATS pick: Auburn 41, Kansas State 38

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Be very careful....he's been around a long time and gives great info but can't pick his own nose

stevenash · 09-18-14, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by sandman0713

Wasnt going to even post anything about this game...because the over is all I care about...but posts like this about the auburn o is mainly what I have see here. Look at the kstate o against the auburn d as well. Taking in all the numbers and past performance from the last two years...kstate should carve up the auburn d as well. Factor in a huge home advantage and a coach that is very experienced in beating teams with better talent...you at least have something to look at. Not saying bet kstate...just don't want to see a bunch of people getting wiped out on another crazy tnf game. When Thursday or Friday night lines look too easy...give pause. Anyway...gl all. Over looks like the best play to me...tho only 2 units because it is thurs night and it would like to have some money to bet with Saturday...lol.

The Auburn Tigers will be the most talented team on the field Thursday night in Manhattan, Kansas. There aren’t many people debating that -- not lucid ones, anyway.

The Kansas State Wildcats can beat Auburn, though. And here’s how coaches think it will play out.

Bill Snyder will show his, uh, youth

Snyder is known in the community as a pretty conservative coach. OK, really conservative. When literally every other Big 12 team has embraced the no-huddle -- even Gary Patterson and TCU! -- Snyder has maintained being Snyder.

“And Snyder’s just going to keep doing his thing …” Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury told me this summer.

Until tonight.

Don’t look for the Wildcats to get 90 snaps or anything (they ran 81 plays against Stephen F. Austin, 70 against Iowa State), but they also won’t be stuck in I-formation running iso and power all night.

“He’s going to take some chances,” a Big 12 coach told me. “Bill’s going to spread it out. He thinks you can go at these corners. I can’t wait to see it because it’s not like him. That’s exciting to me.”

This becomes even more of a factor now that Auburn senior safety Jermaine Whitehead will not play tonight because of a verbal altercation with a coach. He is the Tigers' most experienced defensive back (team-high 122 career snaps) and leads them with two INTs, including one he returned for a score against Arkansas.

Tyler Lockett will be key

As my Insider colleague KC Joyner noted earlier this week, the senior all-conference receiver knows the offense, and he knows it well enough to be used in different ways. He’s the matchup problem that K-State wants to exploit not just for Auburn’s corners, but its safeties and linebackers as well.

"Normally he just lines up [in the slot] and that’s where he is. That’s Snyder. 'If you're a Y, then you're a Y.'" a coach told me this week. "He's going to move him around. He'll line up everywhere."

Lockett had six catches for 136 yards and a score in the win at Iowa State. He’s capable of being a Y and an X factor.

The QB run game will be make-or-break

Second-year QB Jake Waters has to sell the threat of the run in a zone-read offense. He did well against Iowa State, averaging 6.9 yards per carry and scoring twice.

But Auburn will be stingier up front. If the Tigers don’t respect him, they'll be able to defend other options. If Waters gets loose a few times, he could open up other things.

I know when I visited Auburn DC Ellis Johnson in August, he was already fretting K-State's using that throw-out-of-the-zone-read that the Seattle Seahawks credited to Auburn and Gus Malzahn. It has been something Snyder has done longer, in truth.

Eye discipline is something defensive coaches talk about a lot, and that sort of offense messes with it. It’s the opposite of assignment football; it confuses players in the moment.

H-back Glenn Gronkowski 'will score a touchdown'

A coach said to watch for a particular play in which Gronkowski, lined up as an offset fullback, looks as if he’s blocking for Waters, and then he takes off down the seam. (Lockett can streak down the sideline or run a curl off it, as well.)

The safety, unsure whether to cover the H-back or come up to help versus the run, lets Gronkowski go and, bam, K-State has a wide-open target and maybe six points.

"Even if you tell your guys to watch for it, that [stuff] is hard to stop," the coach said. "They'll set it up a few times by letting the quarterback run and then hit him. I guarantee they score on it."

Oh, right. The K-State defense …

The previous points have all been about the Wildcats' offense. Here’s what you should take from that: For K-State to pull the upset, it's going to have to score and keep scoring. The Vegas total, which has since gone down, started at 70.

Snyder is basically conceding that his defense will have a hard time matching up with Auburn, particularly with WR Duke Williams' field-stretching appearance. But he thinks he can score with them, step for step. Still, Kansas State also has been able to stop the zone-read the past two seasons, allowing 3.7 yards per rush on such plays, which ranks second among Big 12 defenses behind TCU.

The number to watch Thursday night is 200. Kansas State is 21-2 when it allows fewer than 200 rushing yards in the past three seasons and 0-5 when it does not.

Get a turnover. Keep scoring. Play the home-crowd-on-a-Thursday-night card. That's the formula.

Auburn is the road team

Auburn beat four ranked teams in its 2013 run, with Georgia, Alabama and Missouri -- all at the end -- standing out as the most memorable. Those were either at home or on a neutral field. In fact, the Tigers have not won a nonconference road game since beating Virginia in 1997. They have not beaten a ranked team on the road since Florida State in 1984.

Last season Texas A&M was Auburn's biggest road win, but the team was well under the radar at that point. The din at Kyle Field for that game wasn't what it was, say, for Alabama earlier in the season. Or what it will be Thursday night at Kansas State.

"I'm wondering about Auburn away from home," one coach told me. "They haven't been somewhere like this. I think Auburn should win, but it being there … I’m curious."

Reload · 09-18-14, 01:40 PM

Must be why the line dropped this afternoon. I like K- State, too - glad I am in at 8.5 though.

CWD · 09-18-14, 01:42 PM

^^^ how was texas a&M under the radar at any time last season? please.

sandman0713 · 09-18-14, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by CWD

^^^ how was texas a&M under the radar at any time last season? please.

I think he was saying auburn was still a little under the radar.

CWD · 09-18-14, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by sandman0713

I think he was saying auburn was still a little under the radar.

my bad on that, but those stats are close to irrelevant now anyways, saying they havent won a non-conference road game since 97, the road win at a&m doesnt county basically by a technicality imo

the more i read the more i believe there is no way this game goes under regardless who wins/covers

sandman0713 · 09-18-14, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by CWD

my bad on that, but those stats are close to irrelevant now anyways, saying they havent won a non-conference road game since 97, the road win at a&m doesnt county basically by a technicality imo

the more i read the more i believe there is no way this game goes under regardless who wins/covers

Yeah...i am on the over as well. I loved it when I bet it...but now it is dropping like the game spread. Who knows on tnf anyways. I only have 3 units invested...so I am not gonna worry too much either way. As a fan tho...great Thursday night game. I will give auburn credit...takes balls to play a tnf game in that place when you have a legit chance to make the playoff.

CWD · 09-18-14, 02:11 PM

wouldnt sweat the thf factor or line moves, they will prob creep back up before game, there havent been many night games so far but the 2 baylor sunday and fri night games line moved away and down.

Killer_Demo · 09-18-14, 02:33 PM

Hey bigdoucheQH remember when you called Steele a felon? That felon makes more in a week than your whole betting career you fat fukking mush

daneblazer · 09-18-14, 02:53 PM

Guy thinks the over will be obliterated but K State is the play?

TwoWays · 09-18-14, 02:55 PM

This game will be an sbr burial of epic levels

Gonz312 · 09-18-14, 02:56 PM

Seems like his strategy every week is to fade oregon until the week he can finally say 'I told you so' and they lose straight up

stevenash · 09-18-14, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by TwoWays

This game will be an sbr burial of epic levels

I think you are correct.

stevenash · 09-18-14, 03:44 PM

One play of his I liked even before his release is Army.
Sharp call there.

edawg · 09-18-14, 04:05 PM

Have met Steele good guy. He is a number cruncher and is a solid college capper.

jtoler · 09-18-14, 04:06 PM

If KState scores 38 that means AU would have at least 50.

stevenash · 09-18-14, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by edawg

Have met Steele good guy. He is a number cruncher and is a solid college capper.

Jeff Saragin too.

Hot Jerry · 09-18-14, 04:49 PM

This is NOT EASY MONEY GAME so this game is WNT [ watch no touch ] !! No can do this one , but GOOD LUCK to all of u today !!

Hot Jerry · 09-18-14, 04:51 PM

and I don't like the NFL tonight either !! No game for me tonight !!

GT21Megatron · 09-18-14, 05:14 PM

Steele plays both sides. He flipped his plays on some of his games because I have inside the pressbox and he has the final score 38-28 Auburn.....where you getting what you posted Nash?

thebestthereis · 09-18-14, 05:49 PM

he is a great babbler for radio and fills air space for various shows. its not always about the stats.

Pivotpoint · 09-18-14, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by GT21Megatron

Steele plays both sides. He flipped his plays on some of his games because I have inside the pressbox and he has the final score 38-28 Auburn.....where you getting what you posted Nash?

I get IPB + Powerplays. Power Sweep he never posts scores on Thur, Sun and Mon night games. He wants guys to call the phones on those. He has Auburn 35 Kansas St 23 on Power Plays.