What's the better play : to hedge or to middle?

[STAX]

Here's my scenario...

I made the following plays earlier this week before AP story came out:

West Virginia ML (+150) : $300 to win $450 (WON)
Patriots ML (-150) : $450 to win $300

2 team parlay:
West Virgina +3.5 (-110) (WON)
Patriots ML (-150)

$500 to win $1090

Current line on Pats/Vikes

Patriots -5.5 (-106) -235
Vikings +5.5 (-104) +205

First of, is it better to try and middle with Minny +5.5 or straight hedge Minny ML... Obv I can gaurentee profit either way...

I could put $465 on Minny ML and free roll $900+ on New England winning. Or I can put $1000 on Minny +5.5, freeroll $400 on New England winning, or have New England win by 5 or less and win both bets for a profit of almost $2400. So I am sacrificing $500 freerolling profit for New England to win the game by 5 or less at a chance at $2400 profit.

scenario 1: freeroll $900
scenario 2: freeroll $400 win a chance to win $2400 total

risking $500 to win $1500 essentially... worth it or not???

Best route?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i say let it ride on this one.

[STAX]

i say let it ride on this one.

If I do nothing:
-$950 if Minny wins
+$1400 if New England wins

If I put $465 on Minny ML (+205):
break even if Minny wins
+$935 if New England wins

If I put $1000 on Minny +5.5 (-104):
break even if Minny wins
+400 if New England wins by 6 or more
+2400 if New England wins by 5 or less

I can eliminate ALL risk involved here and promise my self a nice profit... I wouldn't really consider hedging here if the line had not jumped 2.5 pts and the ML going from -150 to -235

[Ghenghis Kahn]

this line might go to 7 by game time. i'd wait till the morning.

[STAX]

this line might go to 7 by game time. i'd wait till the morning.

good point, thanks

[chase hardy]

Take minny plus the points

[Big Bear]

i say let it ride on this one.

yep. Vikings without AP have about 5% chance of winning. Congrats bro.

[jjgold]

Let it ride stax

I cannot keep up with your action

[unusialsusp5]

buy your way up to MIN +7 to get even a better middle.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

didn't expect this line move. i say get some minny +3.5.

[STAX]

i already put some on both ML and spread when it was +5.5