Expected value

[JohnGalt2341]

MonelineDawg,

Let me add something. It's not just me, it's EVERYONE! Every arber..

Well, reason is simple. To maximize profit!

If you're not arbing, just picking the value bets, then you won't be able to bet much as you did in arbing since you have to stick with a money management plan. But when arbing, you can bet much as you can! It lets you maximize your profit.

Why take risk when you can make profit regardless of result? And why take risk of wiping your whole bankroll? I had times when I cleared my softbook accounts and all money accumulated in Pinnacle, rare but it happens sometimes. And why not miss middle bet opportunities? When you hit a middle bet, you win both bets! If you don't cover your bet in sharp book side, you will hit only 1 bet.

Oh btw, in some "niche markets", I'm doing what you said. I don't cover pinny side or leaving the profit in soft book side.

Quick question and sort of hypothetical situation. On August 16th Tom Watson is fighting Sam Alvey. Tom Watson is currently -121 at Pinnacle. Sam Alvey is currently +135 at 5Dimes. Let's assume that 5Dimes would let you bet a maximum of $1000 on this fight. Would you be better off betting $1286.65(on Watson) at Pinnacle and $1000(on Alvey) at 5Dimes guaranteeing you a profit of $63.35 regardless of who wins OR would you be better of betting only $1210 at Pinnacle and $1000 at 5Dimes? This way... if Watson(Pinnacle bet) wins the worst you will do is break even. However, if Alvey(5Dimes bet) should win you will get a profit of $140 instead of just the guaranteed $63.35. I would think that if Pinnacle is the sharpest book and everyone that Arbs ends up in the negative at Pinnacle that you would be better off trying to win $140 instead of the guaranteed $63.35 in this situation and virtually every situation for that matter. Is this correct? Or not?

Also, when you are placing your Arb bets do you place them both at the exact same time? What do you do if one of the lines changes(for the worse) as you are placing your bet?

[ace888]

Of course first one is the right thing to do for two reasons. first you pick a single match it is not a long run and second you are going to earn money regardless of the result

[magyarsvensk]

Opti, I suggest you to read again.
Let me give an example.

Barcelona is playing versus Valencia

You will pick Barcelona -1,5 or Valencia +1,5. Which one is value? How you can know?

Barcelona -1,5 is 2,20 (+120) in Xbet.
Barcelona -1,5 is 1,909 (-110) in Pinnacle.

Barcelona is a EV+ bet here.

Pinnacle is the exact definition of value betting.

I can just picture the infomercial: "it's EASY to make money betting on sports! You can do it too!"

[smoke a bowl]

Not arbitrary, i'm talking about arbitrage, hehe.

You win in softbook side while you lost in pinnacle side, when making arbitrage. Yes, I lost approximately 285k in pinnacle/asian side last year and won 564k on softbook side. Ask any arbitrage trader and you won't get a different answer. Softbook side always winning, sharp book side always negative. Because the wager you bet on softbook side is "value". When you cover it at Pinnacle, you're betting something non-value. If you could pick that bet in Pinnacle before odds drop, that would be super value.

If one side keeps winning over long haul, then isn't it best, real definition of value?

You can beat softbooks but beating Pinnacle not easy. Most bettors and "all" arbitrage traders are negative in Pinnacle, over long haul. Yes, all. It's impossible for an arbitrage trader to be plus in Pinnacle, over long haul. (You may have wild periods when you win a lot in pinnacle side but over long haul, you're doomed to lose there)

Not only turnover, some years are also required. Money flows from softbooks to sharp book. You realize it with time. Pinnnacle Lean is the exact, best definition of EV+ Bet. If somebody disagree with it, I won't even discuss it.

Maybe you should stop giving all you EV away to pinnacle and just crush the weaker #. Especially in your case where you seem to feel 100% that Pinny is the closest to the correct #.

[magyarsvensk]

Just to clarify my opinions here:

* if it is possible to truly get those kinds of odds on Barcelona with 100% chance of getting your money out of both books, then sure, that would be an excellent way to make money, but I doubt it. It's too easy.

* I don't take exception to your favoritism towards arbitrage. After all, it is stupidly simple, and well suited towards people who can only handle stupidly simple strategies. I do take exception to the arrogance of claiming with no knowledge of mathematics that arbitrage is the only definition of expected value and the only way to make money because each and every pinnacle line is guaranteed to beat the vig.

Expected value is a mathematical term. Learn basic math before you use it.

[MoneyLineDawg]

Maybe you should stop giving all you EV away to pinnacle and just crush the weaker #. Especially in your case where you seem to feel 100% that Pinny is the closest to the correct #.

That's what I was saying above......Makes no sense if you're so sure that Pinny will consistently be the loser for you. I guess he was saying due to money mgmt and risk of ruin he decides to arb

[ace888]

That's what I was saying above......Makes no sense if you're so sure that Pinny will consistently be the loser for you. I guess he was saying due to money mgmt and risk of ruin he decides to arb

This the issue. No one has enough funds to lay Pinny odds. He might be right according to his records but money management rules state that you should always cover your bet otherwise you will run out of cash for sure.

[Sawyer]

I can just picture the infomercial: "it's EASY to make money betting on sports! You can do it too!"

No, it's not.

[Sawyer]

Quick question and sort of hypothetical situation. On August 16th Tom Watson is fighting Sam Alvey. Tom Watson is currently -121 at Pinnacle. Sam Alvey is currently +135 at 5Dimes. Let's assume that 5Dimes would let you bet a maximum of $1000 on this fight. Would you be better off betting $1286.65(on Watson) at Pinnacle and $1000(on Alvey) at 5Dimes guaranteeing you a profit of $63.35 regardless of who wins OR would you be better of betting only $1210 at Pinnacle and $1000 at 5Dimes? This way... if Watson(Pinnacle bet) wins the worst you will do is break even. However, if Alvey(5Dimes bet) should win you will get a profit of $140 instead of just the guaranteed $63.35. I would think that if Pinnacle is the sharpest book and everyone that Arbs ends up in the negative at Pinnacle that you would be better off trying to win $140 instead of the guaranteed $63.35 in this situation and virtually every situation for that matter. Is this correct? Or not?

Also, when you are placing your Arb bets do you place them both at the exact same time? What do you do if one of the lines changes(for the worse) as you are placing your bet?

Good question. You can create free bets this way, if value side wins, you're money. If Pinnacle side wins, then you win 0$. You lose 0$ either. Usually, I left more profit on softbook side. In some niche markets, I rarely cover my bets full at all.

Your logic is correct but most arbers prefer fixed money. There's one more reason. Since we usually arb heavy favourites, price you pay to hedge the bet full is small. For example, Tsonga is -400 in soft book and Youzhny is +500 in sharpbook. Every 100$ you wager on Youzhny give you +500. But the case would be different if Tsonga was +110 and Youzhny was +105.

Maybe you should stop giving all you EV away to pinnacle and just crush the weaker #. Especially in your case where you seem to feel 100% that Pinny is the closest to the correct #.

There's a thread I opened in Handicapper Think Tank as "Covering other side in Pinnacle is waste of money". I'm sure you'll find it interesting. It was based on a value edge I found in a softbook.

[Sawyer]

I can just picture the infomercial: "it's EASY to make money betting on sports! You can do it too!"

Just wanted to repeat. No it's not. Not everyone can do it. Live arbing for example is very challenging. Middle bets are another story. There's lots of arbers, how many of them are genius enough to spot (and hit) those middle bets?

Not everybody is creative enough to find hidden gems. Finding value is an art. You can be a standart arber though with a standart profit but how many arbers make 6-figures/year? Not everybody, then it's not something easy.

Just to clarify my opinions here:
After all, it is stupidly simple, and well suited towards people who can only handle stupidly simple strategies.

No, it's not. There's too many things that you don't know about arbitrage so I'm not expecting you to understand me. There's too many advanced, deep strategies, tactics, tricks in arbitrage business. You can't understand unless you don't know it so don't try hard on yourself, hehe.

No need to get offended here. How you can know if your system, pick is EV+? After you handicapped an event, you make a probability/odds calculation. You take the odds and decide if it's worth the risk. Would you bet -110 with %50 chance? Hell, no. But %55 chance for %110 would be nice, isn't it? But how you can know if your pick is EV+? How you can know if this line, this odd has %55 chance to win?

Pinnacle odds are very very efficient. And these odds are not fixed, they're subject to change. Sharp players/Genius oddsmakers shape the market. So if line moves in your favor, then you're in right path. Or if you can find a better price then Pinnacle in another bookmaker, then you guarantee to make profit over long haul. It's a thread about expected value, who can be more fascinating then being able to guarantee a profit over long haul? Just beat the pinnacle closer and you're a winner. Remember, late line movements are more efficient then early ones.

Pinnacle challenges everyone to beat their odds. That's why they never close accounts and they (say) never limit players. If your line is better then Pinnacle, then your bet is a good bet, your bet is likely to be a +EV bet. Let's say you picked Indiana-Atlanta Over 184 -110 and closer was Over 181 +100, then your bet sucks, lol.

[magyarsvensk]

Good question. You can create free bets this way, if value side wins, you're money. If Pinnacle side wins, then you win 0$. You lose 0$ either.

You call yourself an "arber" but you don't even know the basic arbitrage equation. Arbitrage is where you make an equal amount of money no matter which wins.

Also, arbitrage has nothing to do with expected value. Expected value deals with uncertain outcomes. There is no uncertainty in true arbitrage.

Stop trying to disguise the fact that you are just a mathematically challenged hack who posts on message boards for a marginal ego boost.

[Sawyer]

You call yourself an "arber" but you don't even know the basic arbitrage equation. Arbitrage is where you make an equal amount of money no matter which wins.

Also, arbitrage has nothing to do with expected value. Expected value deals with uncertain outcomes. There is no uncertainty in true arbitrage.

Stop trying to disguise the fact that you are just a mathematically challenged hack who posts on message boards for a marginal ego boost.

LoL. You're a funny guy for thinking all arbers must hedge their arbs equal. You can leave slightly more profit on soft book side. But I'm telling these to wrong person, lol.

[magyarsvensk]

I don't know what an "arber" is, but based on your posts, I am thinking it's akin to a day trader or house flipper.

I am telling you what the term "arbitrage" literally means. If you are making small guaranteed profits from inefficiencies in the market, that is arbitrage. Anything else you call "arbitrage" is just low risk low reward betting, also known as picking up nickels in front of a steamroller.

This is clearly not a strong subject for you, so better to stop embarrassing yourself.

[KVB]

Yeah, terms like Expected Value and Arbitrage are being used loosely around the entire forum.

[JohnGalt2341]

Question for Sawyer(or anyone else that wants to answer)... about Expected Value. Let's take today's Orioles/Indians game. Pinnacle currently has Baltimore at +148 and Cleveland at -161. This would make the no-vig line +/-153(if I did it correctly). Does this mean that if I can find Baltimore at +154(or better) or Cleveland at -152(or better) that it should have a positive expected value? The bottom line question is... if you can get a better price than Pinnacle's closing no-vig line then you should always have a positive expected value right?

[rm18]

no because though the pinnacle may have no value on either side one side is often less bad of a bet

Say the true odds are -159 on cleveland there is no value on either side so the line may stay put unless a whale makes a big bet but the -161 on cleveland is a lot less -ev

[Sawyer]

Question for Sawyer(or anyone else that wants to answer)... about Expected Value. Let's take today's Orioles/Indians game. Pinnacle currently has Baltimore at +148 and Cleveland at -161. This would make the no-vig line +/-153(if I did it correctly). Does this mean that if I can find Baltimore at +154(or better) or Cleveland at -152(or better) that it should have a positive expected value? The bottom line question is... if you can get a better price than Pinnacle's closing no-vig line then you should always have a positive expected value right?

Agreed with RM18, no value here. If Baltimore is +148, you need to find at least +178 for a good value imo.

If you can get a better price then Pinny closer by a "respectable margin", you will always have a positive expected value, that's right.

Let's say pinny closer is Over 7½ -110 and your bet is Over 7½ +100. This won't make you rich. But if you can find Over 7½ +125, then it's a fukkin' value bet!

Arbitrage is a deep subject. There's too many things involved such as middles, polish middles, value bets/sharp bets. The main idea of this thread was a little bit different then our subject but still it's always a good thing to learn new things. You should know the power of line movement. If the line moves, then it moves for a reason.

[KVB]

More good posting, this has remained a good thread and a good discussion.