My own Week 1 College Football lines

jjgold · 07-29-14, 11:28 AM

Good information here and well thought out

I'm nowhere near that point to look at college football though

leetreaper · 07-29-14, 11:33 AM

jjgold · 07-29-14, 12:06 PM

get your publications and read

important 1st 4 weeks

BigdaddyQH · 07-29-14, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

I used my own software and research to come up with these lines. Feel free to compare them to the posted lines in Vegas/Offshore to find value.

Texas A&M +6 at South Carolina...-10 1/2
Wake Forest +1 at Louisiana-Monroe...+3
Tulane +7 at Tulsa...-3 1/2
Boise State +3.5 vs. Ole Miss...-10
Temple +17 at Vanderbilt...-16
Rutgers +9 at Washington State...-8 1/2

BYU -20 at Connecticut...[/I]+16[/I]
Texas-San Antonio +25 at Houston...-12 1/2
Colorado State -13 vs. Colorado...-3
UNLV +27 at Arizona...-23 1/2

UCF -4 vs. Ped State...-1
UCLA -19 at Virginia...+24
Ohio State -15 vs. Navy...+17 1/2
Western Michigan +5 at Purdue...-13
Troy -7 at UAB...-1
Boston College -16 at UMass...+14
West Virginia +31 vs. Alabama...-27 1/2
Florida Atlantic +18 at Nebraska...-24
California +21 at Northwestern...-12 1/2
Marshall -24.5 at Miami (OH)...+24
Rice +17.5 at Notre Dame...-24
Arkansas +23 at Auburn...-23
Clemson +7 at Georgia...-9
Ohio +2 at Kent State...-2 1/2
Louisiana Tech +35 at Oklahoma...-37
Idaho +33 at Florida...[/I]-35[/I]
Southern Miss +37 at Mississippi State...-29
Fresno State +17 at USC...-21
Florida State -26 vs. Oklahoma State...+18
North Texas +20 at Texas...-26
Texas-El Paso +7 at New Mexico...-7 1/2
LSU -2 vs. Wisconsin...+5 1/2
Washington -20.5 at Hawaii...+21

Utah State +2 at Tennessee...-6
SMU +39 at Baylor...-31 1/2

Miami (FL) +7 at Louisville...-3

Current Vegas odds from CG Tech in italics. I see 8 games where the difference between your line and the current Vegas line is more than 6 points. Are you going to wager those 8 games? You like Colorado State at -3, when the actual line is +3. That looks like a ML wager plus a line wager.

SamDiamond · 07-29-14, 12:14 PM

I'll tell you what retard.

You give me South Carolina -6... for every dime you and Lonathan can come up with. Deal?

BigdaddyQH · 07-29-14, 12:28 PM

A&M has no offense to speak of, and has already lost three defensive starters. That really hurts this team. 6 points is a gift. But what do you expect from a Texan? I would take South Carolina -6 any day for any amount.

James Marques · 07-29-14, 12:31 PM

Utah State, for the record, opened at -2 against Tennessee. Now, +7 or +7.5 in some books. SEC! SEC! SEC!

BigdaddyQH · 07-29-14, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by James Marques

Utah State, for the record, opened at -2 against Tennessee. Now, +7 or +7.5 in some books. SEC! SEC! SEC!

Which book did Utah State open at -2 1/2? The line opened at Tennessee -6 to -7, depending on what book you are looking for. It is the same, with most of the action between 6 and 6 1/2.

leetreaper · 07-29-14, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by SamDiamond

I'll tell you what retard.

You give me South Carolina -6... for every dime you and Lonathan can come up with. Deal?

James Marques · 07-29-14, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Which book did Utah State open at -2 1/2? The line opened at Tennessee -6 to -7, depending on what book you are looking for. It is the same, with most of the action between 6 and 6 1/2.

Looked at the wrong column. That was Howell's prediction.

http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfpred.txt

BigdaddyQH · 07-29-14, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by James Marques

Looked at the wrong column. That was Howell's prediction.

http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfpred.txt

How much do you think that guy Howell had to drink before making those predictions?

frogsrangers · 07-30-14, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

A&M has no offense to speak of, and has already lost three defensive starters. That really hurts this team. 6 points is a gift. But what do you expect from a Texan? I would take South Carolina -6 any day for any amount.

I hate Texas A&M but my model predicts a close game here for some reason. I didn't like the -6 line it put out either and thought about shading it. My model put out Boise State +2 but I shaded it to +3.5 for example

frogsrangers · 07-30-14, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Current Vegas odds from CG Tech in italics. I see 8 games where the difference between your line and the current Vegas line is more than 6 points. Are you going to wager those 8 games? You like Colorado State at -3, when the actual line is +3. That looks like a ML wager plus a line wager.

I love Colorado State no idea why they are dogs

Also love Florida State at -18 they will win by 21+

Those are the only 2 I have committed to so far

Thinking about Boise State

teaserpleaser · 07-30-14, 10:33 AM

Lsu should crush wisky -2?

badgerguy · 07-30-14, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by teaserpleaser

Lsu should crush wisky -2?

Ummmm no. Not crush

BigdaddyQH · 07-30-14, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

I love Colorado State no idea why they are dogs

Also love Florida State at -18 they will win by 21+

Those are the only 2 I have committed to so far

Thinking about Boise State

The reason why Colorado Stae is a dog is because last season a 7 win Colorado State was absolutely crushed by a 4 win Colorado team. You are talking the MWC against the Pac 12 here. Obviously the Pac 12 has much better teams (as Fresno State found out playing against USC last season in the Vegas Bowl), so the Pac 12 is going to be favored in most of those types of match-ups.

teaserpleaser · 07-30-14, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by badgerguy

Ummmm no. Not crush

What's crushing to you they'll beat wisky by double digits on a neutral field(that's not so neutral)...easy

frogsrangers · 07-30-14, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by teaserpleaser

Lsu should crush wisky -2?

A lot of people thought this last year with LSU-TCU, line was LSU -4 and people were all over LSU

LSU ended up covering but TCU had multiple chances to cover in the end

teaserpleaser · 07-30-14, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by frogsrangers

A lot of people thought this last year with LSU-TCU, line was LSU -4 and people were all over LSU

LSU ended up covering but TCU had multiple chances to cover in the end

won $$$ on LSu ML was never really in doubt ....lsu never tailed in that game if I remember right #20 tcu in Texas is a little different animal than wisky in Texas....basically will be a home crowd for lsu or should be as close to home as this is.