Strange Pacers heat odds

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  • luvnpeas
    SBR Rookie
    • 12-08-13
    • 29

    #1
    Strange Pacers heat odds
    The Pacers are around +120 for the 1st game, but around +320 to win the series.

    Makes little sense. I bet on Heat at -135 for the first game, and Pacers +320 to win the series. Sort of a sloppy arbitrage....
  • TheCentaur
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 06-28-11
    • 8108

    #2
    Originally posted by luvnpeas
    The Pacers are around +120 for the 1st game, but around +320 to win the series.

    Makes little sense. I bet on Heat at -135 for the first game, and Pacers +320 to win the series. Sort of a sloppy arbitrage....
    I think it makes a lot of sense if you realize what is best for the NBA, which is a long series and Miami advancing
    Comment
    • d2bets
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 08-10-05
      • 39995

      #3
      Originally posted by luvnpeas
      The Pacers are around +120 for the 1st game, but around +320 to win the series.

      Makes little sense. I bet on Heat at -135 for the first game, and Pacers +320 to win the series. Sort of a sloppy arbitrage....
      How is this crazy? Pacers are +120 for this HOME GAME. If they're +2 at home that means they're probably +8 (+350) for the road games.

      What you're doing is not arbitrage, or at least not arbitrage in your favor. You're paying double juice and pretty much guaranteeing you will lose.

      If the Heat do win this game our +320 will be pretty much worthless. It will go to +900. And if the Heat lose the +320 won't even fall that much, maybe +220.

      Odds are not strange.
      Comment
      • GoBlue77
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-20-11
        • 9166

        #4
        another complete idiot. odds are fine. and u betting miami game 1 and pacers for series is amateur hour.
        Comment
        • BennyBigNuts
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 04-16-12
          • 8700

          #5
          Originally posted by d2bets
          How is this crazy? Pacers are +120 for this HOME GAME. If they're +2 at home that means they're probably +8 (+350) for the road games.

          What you're doing is not arbitrage, or at least not arbitrage in your favor. You're paying double juice and pretty much guaranteeing you will lose.

          If the Heat do win this game our +320 will be pretty much worthless. It will go to +900. And if the Heat lose the +320 won't even fall that much, maybe +220.

          Odds are not strange.


          End of Thread
          Comment
          • jjgold
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 07-20-05
            • 388179

            #6
            I think odds makers underestimating Indy

            It will be tough to beat this team 4 games
            Comment
            • The Kraken
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-25-11
              • 28918

              #7
              Originally posted by jjgold
              I think odds makers underestimating Indy

              It will be tough to beat this team 4 games
              Agree
              Comment
              • Ho Le Fuk
                SBR Sharp
                • 08-13-13
                • 274

                #8
                Originally posted by d2bets
                How is this crazy? Pacers are +120 for this HOME GAME. If they're +2 at home that means they're probably +8 (+350) for the road games.

                What you're doing is not arbitrage, or at least not arbitrage in your favor. You're paying double juice and pretty much guaranteeing you will lose.

                If the Heat do win this game our +320 will be pretty much worthless. It will go to +900. And if the Heat lose the +320 won't even fall that much, maybe +220.

                Odds are not strange.
                Or it'll fall by 50% to +160 for the series.
                Comment
                • broadway6
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-14-09
                  • 13337

                  #9
                  Originally posted by jjgold
                  I think odds makers underestimating Indy

                  It will be tough to beat this team 4 games

                  Death kiss
                  Comment
                  • LT Profits
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-27-06
                    • 90963

                    #10
                    Heat may now be playable at -185 for series.
                    Comment
                    • The Kraken
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-25-11
                      • 28918

                      #11
                      Originally posted by d2bets
                      How is this crazy? Pacers are +120 for this HOME GAME. If they're +2 at home that means they're probably +8 (+350) for the road games.

                      What you're doing is not arbitrage, or at least not arbitrage in your favor. You're paying double juice and pretty much guaranteeing you will lose.

                      If the Heat do win this game our +320 will be pretty much worthless. It will go to +900. And if the Heat lose the +320 won't even fall that much, maybe +220.

                      Odds are not strange.
                      pacers now +165

                      Odds fell quite a bit. Even I'm surprised.

                      edit: i posted without reading. I see others have addressed this.
                      Comment
                      • pavyracer
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 04-12-07
                        • 82841

                        #12
                        Odds don't win games. Players, refs and the NBA commissioner win games.
                        Comment
                        • The Kraken
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-25-11
                          • 28918

                          #13
                          Odds maximize EG
                          Comment
                          • luvnpeas
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 12-08-13
                            • 29

                            #14
                            Originally posted by d2bets
                            How is this crazy? Pacers are +120 for this HOME GAME. If they're +2 at home that means they're probably +8 (+350) for the road games.

                            What you're doing is not arbitrage, or at least not arbitrage in your favor. You're paying double juice and pretty much guaranteeing you will lose.

                            If the Heat do win this game our +320 will be pretty much worthless. It will go to +900. And if the Heat lose the +320 won't even fall that much, maybe +220.

                            Odds are not strange.
                            Having roughly the same odds for road games as you do for a series, when you have home-court advantage in the series, doesn't make sense to me.

                            In comparison, the series and game odds for Spurs - Thunder are nearly the same.

                            I checked for odds just now (after Heat lost), and didn't see any for the series. If you're right that the Heat will be around -220, then the it will be hard to cover the bet.
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              Originally posted by luvnpeas
                              Having roughly the same odds for road games as you do for a series, when you have home-court advantage in the series, doesn't make sense to me.

                              In comparison, the series and game odds for Spurs - Thunder are nearly the same.

                              I checked for odds just now (after Heat lost), and didn't see any for the series. If you're right that the Heat will be around -220, then the it will be hard to cover the bet.
                              Heat are between -185 and -190 right now.
                              Comment
                              • jjgold
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 07-20-05
                                • 388179

                                #16
                                You got to be insane to lay juice with the Miami Heat to win series with no home-court advantage it's gambling suicide
                                Comment
                                • LT Profits
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-27-06
                                  • 90963

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by jjgold
                                  You got to be insane to lay juice with the Miami Heat to win series with no home-court advantage it's gambling suicide
                                  Even taking -200 now will look GREAT if they win Game 2, as price would then be -400. Not insane at all if you think Miami is the better team, which I do. I just don't see Pacers winning 4 out of 7 against them.
                                  Comment
                                  • The Kraken
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 12-25-11
                                    • 28918

                                    #18
                                    And why not just bet them to win game 2?

                                    Right now you can get them at -135 for game 2 or -190 for the series, which is heavily influenced by them winning game 2. If the win game 2, you got much better odds at -135, if they lose, then you can em up at +175 for the series.
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by The Kraken
                                      And why not just bet them to win game 2?

                                      Right now you can get them at -135 for game 2 or -190 for the series, which is heavily influenced by them winning game 2. If the win game 2, you got much better odds at -135, if they lose, then you can em up at +175 for the series.
                                      Or you can make separate bets on series and individual games!
                                      Comment
                                      • The Kraken
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-25-11
                                        • 28918

                                        #20
                                        You could, I just don't think it's smart. But you're a sharp cat, good luck
                                        Comment
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