Sun: Chris Paul makes his return for LAC -16 WTF?

[AchillesTG]

Is this an over-reaction?

I know Philly is 2 - 7 ATS and 0 -4 in their last meetings at the Staples Center, but -16?

[broadway6]

taking the points is a must bet...even if it loses, you don't lay 16 in the nba

[iHateBetting12]

Whats the o/u? Might be better to play that. Philly has no D and Clips will score as will Philly.

[AchillesTG]

My Book has the total at 219.5

[iHateBetting12]

Holy inflated numbers Batman

[FranchisePlayer]

Teasers in basketball are stupid but might have to to do one with this number

[AchillesTG]

Holy inflated numbers Batman

Yeah, the side and the O/U seems to be an over-reaction.

Remember, the books factor in much more "gambler psychology" than ever before!

[iHateBetting12]

This line should have some sort of movement tomorrow but not enough for me to take Clips, maybe look at o/u again before gametime. Better games on board anyways.

[AchillesTG]

I am not sure, but I do not know how the numbers can be any higher than they are right now.

I may take a flyer on a teaser at +20.5 and Under 224. ***Note: I never play teasers in basketball****

[FranchisePlayer]

If anything Chris Paul returning should make them more sloppy to begin with after them playing so well with Collison..

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

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[tokio]

Team will be out of sync.

[lunch]

blake is playing well you cant beat LA right now

[FranchisePlayer]

They don't need to beat them obviously.... derp derp

[Seto]

Is this an over-reaction?

I know Philly is 2 - 7 ATS and 0 -4 in their last meetings at the Staples Center, but -16?

Why people think past meetings with completely different teams have any influence on the way lines are set is beyond me.

So next year if LeBron leaves Miami all the teams that are 1-15 or 2-14 or some shit in their last 16 meetings against Miami should be huge underdogs?

Back on topic, the line is -16 (-15 now btw) because the 76ers are godawful. Clips would be -13.5/14 at least if CP were out.

[kevin101]

Why people think past meetings with completely different teams have any influence on the way lines are set is beyond me.

So next year if LeBron leaves Miami all the teams that are 1-15 or 2-14 or some shit in their last 16 meetings against Miami should be huge underdogs?

Back on topic, the line is -16 (-15 now btw) because the 76ers are godawful. Clips would be -13.5/14 at least if CP were out.

CP is only worth 1-1.5 point???

[Seto]

CP is only worth 1-1.5 point???

Yeah that seems about right to me. They've been rolling without him and they're a deep team, it's not like we're talking about players where their team couldn't live without them (LeBron, KD). And even then you don't see the line move by more than 3 or so. Plus which this is just his first game back, he'll probably be eased back into it.

[Reign Man]

I watched the Lakers with Steve Nash and Steve Blake in the backcourt kill this 76ers squad with Robert Sacre down low now imagine what Deandre and Blake will do to them I said before the spread even came out I'm rolling with Clippers here no matter what with CP3 or not. I can't imagine a scenario where 76ers keep it close unless Thad Young or Turner gets hot but that's not likely and they turn the ball over like it's a normal routine so there will be plenty of fastbreak points for Clips

[ChicagoCover]

I know my two cents doesn't matter much, but I'm going to post anyway.

Philly sucks yeah we all know that. Averaging 97.3 points in their last three road games doesn't seem bad to me. Came away with a 1 point win at Boston, got touched by @Det by 17 pts but still managed to score 96 pts and then losing by 6 at Brooklyn while scoring over 100 points in that contest. To the Clippers: in their last four home games they've given up an average of 105pts, but the teams they faced were much better than this horrific 76er D; who're allowing opponents to score an average of 114pts in their last 5 games overall.

J.J. Redick is likely to miss his 3rd straight game as well.

With Paul back, it's hard to say...but best bet is to take the Clippers team total OVER (imo)

[AchillesTG]

Why people think past meetings with completely different teams have any influence on the way lines are set is beyond me.

So next year if LeBron leaves Miami all the teams that are 1-15 or 2-14 or some shit in their last 16 meetings against Miami should be huge underdogs?

Back on topic, the line is -16 (-15 now btw) because the 76ers are godawful. Clips would be -13.5/14 at least if CP were out.

Current Form is part of the handicapping process.
Ride the hot teams and fade the cold ones.
What happened, last year or a month ago is irreverent.
So Yes Sir, you are correct.

[Seto]

Current Form is part of the handicapping process.
Ride the hot teams and fade the cold ones.
What happened, last year or a month ago is irreverent.
So Yes Sir, you are correct.

So then why were you mentioning Philly's record in past meetings at Staples as a reason why the line would be this high?

Yeah the lines are based on the team's value/strength, current form, matchups, injuries, fitness levels (ie schedule).

I disagree about riding hot teams and fading cold ones but that's a personal opinion, there's no "right" or "wrong" there

[Seto]

I know my two cents doesn't matter much, but I'm going to post anyway.

Philly sucks yeah we all know that. Averaging 97.3 points in their last three road games doesn't seem bad to me. Came away with a 1 point win at Boston, got touched by @Det by 17 pts but still managed to score 96 pts and then losing by 6 at Brooklyn while scoring over 100 points in that contest. To the Clippers: in their last four home games they've given up an average of 105pts, but the teams they faced were much better than this horrific 76er D; who're allowing opponents to score an average of 114pts in their last 5 games overall.

J.J. Redick is likely to miss his 3rd straight game as well.

With Paul back, it's hard to say...but best bet is to take the Clippers team total OVER (imo)

97.3 is actually pretty low for them, they average 101 on the season. granted that's overall, too lazy to look up what they average a game on the road

[ChicagoCover]

76ers Road Avg: 100.8

A trend I've been playing close attention to, that cashed on the OKC v ORL game...

A team whose last game was at home, with their next game on the road (76ers); In the last four scenarios the UNDER is 3-1.

Dunno if that matters here, but - yeah.

[AchillesTG]

Good discussion!

That is what this forum is all about.

We'll see how it goes after the line jumps around tomorrow.

[AchillesTG]

It is the late Sunday Night Game, so there will be plenty of gamblers looking for the late night bailout.
I took a rare teaser thinking the line on an NBA game cannot really go over 16. I have been plenty wrong before!

Took a teaser early and will be watching the line move around.
I just posted this because -16 seemed way too high for an NBA Game.

[tony_come]

Fade Chris Paul

[Smoke]

Fade Chris Paul

Tony NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[The Kraken]

Simple

If you guys think these numbers are inflated, take the points and bet the under.

Its not rocket surgery

[R.P. McMurphy]

Does seem like Philly or nothing....but I'm not sure there is a # high enough for me to back them. I'm 0-3 trying to give these underachieving clowns a chance in the past few weeks and "spot" betting them wisely so I thought. They are clearly tanking though and I refuse to back a team that does not give a shit. Gl

[tony_come]

Tony NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Smokiest meet me at the rio

[GoBlue77]

Simple

If you guys think these numbers are inflated, take the points and bet the under.

Its not rocket surgery

they do surgery on rockets?

[Time is Money]

No play

Philly just lost by 14 at home to a Lakers team without Meeks, Gasol, Young or Kobe. They are horrible.

[cash$bro91]

The line should actually be higher based on the ratings of the two teams.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

I took under 221

[thetrinity]

better games IMO but to each his own, prob will get heavy action since its the last game of the betting week for guys chasing