Maybe I'm letting the cat out of the bag with this betting strategy...

[TheCentaur]

but the sharpest bettors play the exchanges and Pinnacle

I'm not talking about betting steam, but if there is a discrepancy in odds between these books and the rest, how about fading the better odds at those sharp player books?

For example:

Team A has a significant ml offer of +260 at matchbook, which is at least 15-20 cents higher than rec books

Bet the other side at a USA out

Think this is a good strategy?

[Seaweed]

Hmmm

[Smoke]

Mmmm

[brodie]

nope

[TheCentaur]

ok thanks

why not?

[flyingcarbs]

Why don't you test it out?

[747planes]

but the sharpest bettors play the exchanges and Pinnacle

I'm not talking about betting steam, but if there is a discrepancy in odds between these books and the rest, how about fading the better odds at those sharp player books?

For example:

Team A has a significant ml offer of +260 at matchbook, which is at least 15-20 cents higher than rec books

Bet the other side at a USA out

Think this is a good strategy?

The sharpest bettors also lose. These guys can go 54% and make a killing. An average bettor on sbr can go broke in no time with 54% picks because they don't have the discipline to stay in the game long term.

[trytrytry]

depends what the price of the other side USA out actually is...just because a ML on a dog is 15 cents higher on matchbook than say what you find at that moment at bookmaker does not make it a +EV at bookmaker at all. ... it might...but watching exchanges and offers and what is actually taken or not is intersting and can be useful.

[jjgold]

Does not work

Streaky

Pinny leans don't work

+EV does not work

[Blax0r]

Isn't this a slight variation of betting steam?

[pavyracer]

but the sharpest bettors play the exchanges and Pinnacle

I'm not talking about betting steam, but if there is a discrepancy in odds between these books and the rest, how about fading the better odds at those sharp player books?

For example:

Team A has a significant ml offer of +260 at matchbook, which is at least 15-20 cents higher than rec books

Bet the other side at a USA out

Think this is a good strategy?

Maybe you can ask your girlfriend Shari. What did you guys do the 5 months you were gone from the forum?

[jjgold]

Nobody would work if a betting system was effective

[TheCentaur]

Isn't this a slight variation of betting steam?

I guess kind of

But this isn't a number move that other books follow

It's a noticeable lean, especially at matchbook, that smart money is willing to approach an offer that is much better than a rec book because the bet is so good for them

Ex:
rec books have a moneyline of +270/-320 on a game

Matchbook has offers of +300/-320

This means that matchbook money is willing to eat commission and offer someone +300 on the underdog (well above what rec books offer) because they want action on the favorite

The reverse is also true:

Sometimes with for example the same line +270/-320, there is an offer of -280

This means smart matchbook money is willing to eat commission and offer much better odds for you to take the favorite so they can get down on the underdog

[InTheDrink]

centy you know im at fukkin drifters every goddamm tuesday night

centy why the fuk havent you shared this nugget with me

centy lets go play some golden tee so i can warm up pal

[lakerboy]

centy you know im at fukkin drifters every goddamm tuesday night

centy why the fuk havent you shared this nugget with me

centy lets go play some golden tee so i can warm up pal

golden tee- what a great game

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Nobody would work if a betting system was effective

also if it worked, no one would share it.