College Basketball Plays for Saturday - January 4th

[VegasInsider]

Saturday starts off with a 2pm ET play in the AAC. It's probably the squarest play on the board, but it's one that I feel is a really good play. I'm very surprised by the opening number. UConn is coming off a tough loss to Houston, in which they fell behind big early on and battled their back behind Shabazz Napier. The Huskies cannot afford to fall to 0-2 in the conference and I'm expecting a much more focused team tomorrow. The Huskies know how to play in close games this season, with their three most quality wins coming over Top-100 competition by only one point each. This has shown that UConn has some real mettle and can hang tough. Wins against Maryland and Indiana came on neutral court and a nice victory over Florida came at home.

One of the biggest reasons for my play on UConn is the sloppy ball control of the SMU Mustangs. They rank as one of the worst teams in the country in turnovers on the offensive end and I feel that UConn can take advantage of this with their stellar shooting and veteran guards. Something isn't right with this SMU squad, as Larry Brown coached teams usually value their possessions and take care of the basketball. I know the Mustangs boast a pretty good defense (another trait of Larry Brown's teams) and I expect nothing to change tomorrow. This should be an absolute dogfight, but I'm banking on the vets from UConn to stand tall and get a much needed road, conference victory.

I'll be very interested in the posted total on this game as well. I'll be looking for something in the 125-128 range and a possible Over play with the right number. We have two very similar teams here and I'm strictly taking the better team that needs the victory MUCH more after their AAC opener. I'm sure this play will be a public favorite and I'd expect this game to move down to a PK by tipoff.

UConn +1.5

More plays to come later on. I will use this thread throughout the day. Goodluck everyone!

[VegasInsider]

Small conference college hoops is what it's all about!! This is the best time of year to really find out who is for real and who has just strutting along the non conference schedule. I'm sure my thought process is getting old, but when teams don't play anyone thru November and December, it's a major sticking point with me. We'll be heading to the Southern Conference for this matchup and it's another road dog (albeit a wrongful one, IMO).

Let's make one thing clear...this is Elon's conference in 2014. Make no mistake about it, Elon is a decent squad. Forget the 7-7 record and just look at their non-conference slate. Talk about brutal! They've play at Charlotte (#112), at Colorado (#31), at Georgetown (#33) and on neutral floors to Duke (#13) and Drexal (#84). This is a team that plays tough competition and will be ready for the middle-of-the-road Southern Conference schedule. Oh, by the way, they somehow managed to schedule a UMass into the middle of the conference games. The program has shown they have no fear. They hung tough in a couple of those early games vs. top tier opponents (7 point loss to Drexel and 9 point loss @ GTown)

Western Carolina is utter garbage, IMHO. The only game of note on the non conference schedule was Oregon which they lost by 24. Besides that, they've played only 3 teams inside the the Top-150 and lost those by an average of 14 points per game. The Catamounts don't do anything particularly well and a lot of things mediocre. They don't really have a go-to scorer worth mentioning and their not a great rebounding team on either end of the floor. I guess the one thing they do is not foul alot. I mean, that's something. Elon has one of the best small conference players in the country in Tanner Samson and this is a kid that can take over a game, especially in the SoCon. The kid can flat out score and ranks among the best in the country in Turnover Percentage per Possession (which is remarkable considering how much he handles the basketball)

It's simple. The wrong team is favored here and I fully expect Elon to open up their conference schedule with a win on the road.

Elon +1

[frogsrangers]

Eyeballing West Virginia tomorrow

[VegasInsider]

TCU a tough venue to play and they've looked much better since the opening of the season, albeit against far lesser competition. I don't really have an opinion either way. I could see reasons for taking either side tomorrow. Huggins always puts out a tough squad and they've looked good in the two games I watched (Gonzaga and Purdue, both losses but they still looked decent enough to win the games)

[K-Starr79]

Iowa st -5.5 at ttech? Isu lost there last year and could be looking ahead to Baylor, but the number seems low.. Thanks for your work!

[VegasInsider]

I like the Cyclones here. This is a team that has to work for every single thing they get. I can't see them taking a game off due to a look-ahead. ISU still gets no respect in the conference or nationally. I think they still have a chip on their shoulder to prove they're just as good (or better) than Oklahoma State, Baylor, KST, Texas and maybe even Kansas.

I have a real soft spot for this team and I hope they continue they're great play into some of the big conference games. I think they roll tomorrow.

[lucullus]

Yeah I liked UConn too

[bubblebuttluv]

Wow, two great write-ups!

One solid write-up is greatly appreciated, but if you have the time to keep doing 2 a day, that would be amazing.

Again, thank you for the hard work VegasInsider!

[chalk46]

I like both of those picks. Was already on Uconn & took a little more in depth look at Elon matchup. Looks like a strong play as well. Agree with you on WCU being brutal.

[VegasInsider]

Last two plays I'll be adding tonight. No write ups for this these, just getting on early before the public hammers them. This will probably be it for side plays. I'll get one a total or two in the morning when they open. Write up will come with those.

Michigan State -2.5 (-110)

Iowa State -5.5 (-110)

[buckeyez1fan]

Could not agree more with the write up about Uconn being the much more impressive team thus far this season. But I just can't pull the trigger on a ranked underdog vs a unranked favorite at home. Those games are off limits for me but bol to all the Uconn backers and I'm loving the Elon Pick!!!

[buckeyez1fan]

Last two plays I'll be adding tonight. No write ups for this these, just getting on early before the public hammers them. This will probably be it for side plays. I'll get one a total or two in the morning when they open. Write up will come with those.

Michigan State -2.5 (-110)

Iowa State -5.5 (-110)

When will Iowa state start getting the respect they deserve!!??!!!

[VegasInsider]

I'm guessing it's going to come about 11pm on Monday, Jan 13th after they beat Kansas

[Tommy Karate]

Hey VI...i saw you mention that you're one of the top college hoop guys on the board. Do you update the results of the plays you post? It doesnt look like you have a season thread. Curious your results this season and last season. Thx and GL tomorrow.

[VegasInsider]

I started a new spreadsheet of all the plays I've posted across the board on Jan 1st (first updated on 1/3).

I post in subforums as well, so I don't keep one continuous thread on Players Talk. I've started a thread each day for college hoops starting a few days ago (with the write ups)

Plays go from 1-3 units (besides the URI play, which was Game of the Season and was a very rare 5 unit play) Here is the link to my spreadsheet:

http://vegasinsider.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

[VegasInsider]

Also, I've marked in the "Notes" section the Players Talk Play of the Day (which include the write up). Everything else are plays I've made and posting in other threads or subforums.

[jtoler]

I too will be waiting on the pubes to bet UCONN so I hopefully can get SMU at a + number.

[VegasInsider]

If you like SMU then you're smart to wait. I know this will be a public favorite but I feel it's the right side.

[Tommy Karate]

I started a new spreadsheet of all the plays I've posted across the board on Jan 1st (first updated on 1/3).

I post in subforums as well, so I don't keep one continuous thread on Players Talk. I've started a thread each day for college hoops starting a few days ago (with the write ups)

Plays go from 1-3 units (besides the URI play, which was Game of the Season and was a very rare 5 unit play) Here is the link to my spreadsheet:

http://vegasinsider.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

good stuff....you should stay in the sub forum or hopefully at least your threads get copied there.

were you aware that SMU reopens their home stadium tomorrow after renovations? theyve been playing in garland. curious if that changes your thoughts on the game...

[VegasInsider]

Yeah, I was aware they're reopening their building. I read that a few days ago. I have a lot of respect for SMU after watching them against Rhode Island two weeks ago (I believe?). This is merely a play on UConn's need to win this game to avoid starting 0-2 in conference. SMU is a solid squad led by a very stellar coach. They'll give a lot of teams trouble at home AND on the road.

[dieterketel]

I started a new spreadsheet of all the plays I've posted across the board on Jan 1st (first updated on 1/3).

I post in subforums as well, so I don't keep one continuous thread on Players Talk. I've started a thread each day for college hoops starting a few days ago (with the write ups)

Plays go from 1-3 units (besides the URI play, which was Game of the Season and was a very rare 5 unit play) Here is the link to my spreadsheet:

http://vegasinsider.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

Just bookmarked your spreadsheet. Keep up the good work man!

[blstrick5]

I'm with you on 3 out of 4 of those picks. That UCONN/SMU game is tough so I'm going to stay away from that one. I also like Drake -4 @ Bradley. Bradley has been struggling and even though Drake hasn't beat any great teams, I don't think they'll have any trouble with the Braves who have been getting blown out pretty much every game lately. Thanks for the great work, keep it up.

[Madison]

Thanks for the work and BOL!!

[frogsrangers]

TCU a tough venue to play and they've looked much better since the opening of the season, albeit against far lesser competition. I don't really have an opinion either way. I could see reasons for taking either side tomorrow. Huggins always puts out a tough squad and they've looked good in the two games I watched (Gonzaga and Purdue, both losses but they still looked decent enough to win the games)

Yeah I am going to pass. I capped this as a virtual tie, so just going to stay away even though TCU is getting 6 points.

I have been to every TCU game this year(even the ones in Alaska) and against the only two good teams they played(SMU and Harvard) they got beat easily. They have a 6 game win streak but its been against bad competition. West Virginia is a step up and I am not sure if they are ready, especially inside, which is why I leaned WVU at first. One thing the team has that they didn't have last year is confidence. But if Karviar Shepherd is in foul trouble its over for TCU. That is how they lost to Longwood.

TCU Women were on a similar run, 6 game win streak at home against bad competition, then played Iowa State the other night and got blown out. Would not surprise me to see TCU men do the same, but for now its a no play.

[Coolcanuck79]

Thanks for the picks VI. Best of luck today!!

[jjgold]

Nice work Insider

Your picks are feared

Best of luck today

[VegasInsider]

Thanks fellas.

[hoot29576]

Thank you. I have enjoyed reading your plays!

[VegasInsider]

Syracuse/Miami ML OVER 123

[Louisvillekid1]

I'm on elon +2 & ML also notre dame but watching line for chance at better number ats & ML

Good luck today

[VegasInsider]

I'll be going against all of this horseshit movement in the Clemson/BC - absolutely no reasoning behind it besides someone has a lot of money and wants to play the Eagles. Line currently sitting at Clemson +1 and I'm holding out +1.5 in the next hour. Clemson at PK or better will absolutely be a play

[VegasInsider]

I have a good awful feeling about UConn. They just can't play any defense. Tough to watch. Hopefully they can bear down and make something happen

[Madison]

How in God's name is Syr losing by 4 with 13 min to go to this sux ass Mia team. 29pts 27 mins in. WTF.

[Madison]

How in God's name is Syr losing by 4 with 13 min to go to this sux ass Mia team. 29pts 27 mins in. WTF.

This line smelled from the moment it opened. Everyone else 14.5 bkmr 13. Stupid me I bit. What a fool.

[jdub77713]

I took the point with Clemson too can't figure it out for the life of me looked all over to see why they are the dog but didn't find anything. BOL