I have not done real well betting bowl games the last couple of years. So, I jotted down a few things that have tripped me up in the past. I am sure people can add to this list.
1. Teams take more chances - 4th down tries, gimmick plays, wide open playbooks
2. Players become ineligible due to arrests or academics
3. Coaches are moving around
4. Location of the Event: Is one Team actually a favorite? Does the turf and surroundings match the Team? Is a slow Team playing on a fast track, etc.
5, Players: Some have had time to heal and play, while seniors and others leaving the program, may get a little playing time that they never would have received.
6. Bowl Assignment: Is the Team happy with their Bowl? Some Teams will not be too excited to play in the "Bob Turd Bowl Classic". Others are ecstatic with their selection and will play over their heads.
7. Unfamiliar opponents - It makes it harder to predict the outcome and makes individual match ups more signifcant
8. Odds and Line movement are much more important. Odds are posted for an extended period of time and there should be a large betting volume on most of these games. Why did the line move?
I have not researched this yet, but I need to check the number of games that went "Over" the last couple of years. I know books will inflate the "Overs", but how did they do?
Happy Holidays and Happy Bowling!
1. Teams take more chances - 4th down tries, gimmick plays, wide open playbooks
2. Players become ineligible due to arrests or academics
3. Coaches are moving around
4. Location of the Event: Is one Team actually a favorite? Does the turf and surroundings match the Team? Is a slow Team playing on a fast track, etc.
5, Players: Some have had time to heal and play, while seniors and others leaving the program, may get a little playing time that they never would have received.
6. Bowl Assignment: Is the Team happy with their Bowl? Some Teams will not be too excited to play in the "Bob Turd Bowl Classic". Others are ecstatic with their selection and will play over their heads.
7. Unfamiliar opponents - It makes it harder to predict the outcome and makes individual match ups more signifcant
8. Odds and Line movement are much more important. Odds are posted for an extended period of time and there should be a large betting volume on most of these games. Why did the line move?
I have not researched this yet, but I need to check the number of games that went "Over" the last couple of years. I know books will inflate the "Overs", but how did they do?
Happy Holidays and Happy Bowling!