C-Gold's week 12 Breakdown, 5-1 ATS last week, 11-4 last 3 weeks.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 07:32 AM

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland -1

Pittsburgh won 2 games in a row, both at home. They were a home dog last week against Detroit, I was going to pick them but I had a full 6 game card and did not. This week the public is on them against an unpopular Cleveland team.

Cleveland has had a QB carousel and they are down to their 3rd string QB, perennial loser Jason Campbell. Campbell is not a winner. A winner doesn't run out of bounds on 4th and 8 for a 2 yard game and "concede" losses. A winner doesn't throw a 2 yard pass on 4th and 10. He plays for stats, completion percentage, yards, he doesn't try and win. Look at what the coaching staff does for Pea brain campbell, 3rd downs are always draws, screens and check downs. Real QB's will at least occasionally try and throw an 11 yard pass on 3rd and 10 to get the first down.

Campbell is 1-2 as the Browns starter, they did upset the Ravens a few weeks back but that's not something I'd count on. It proves that the Browns CAN win this game, but I don't think they will. I see the public leaning on Pitt and I think they will be right. No lock, but I like them here.

I really want to lean the UNDER here but 40 is not a lot. I do NOT think there will be a lot of points. Pitt has had O-line problems and hasn't run the ball well. Cleveland has had problems running the ball, and Jason Campbell is always good for unders with all those checkdowns he throws. The Steelers have a good option to throw to with Antonio Brown but the Browns have one of the best cover corners in the NFL with Hayden. The weather is also going to be cold, and slow the game down and there could be snow.

In a low scoring game points are at a premium. I think the best thing to do is TEASE the Steelers up to +8.
I think the Steelers +1 is still a good play, and even with the low point total I'd lean the under.

Why? In a game like this with a 1 point spread you are asking who do you think will win. Ben Hamburger is a winner, he won 2 super bowls and he can make things happen. On the other side is Jason Campbell who is one of the biggest losers who still gets to start games. The only time he ever made the playoffs in his 7 or so year career is when Todd Collins led his team there with a late season 3-0 record. Campbell sucks. This game should be low scoring, shitty offensive day for both teams, but the big variable here is Big Ben vs a shitty black backup QB with mechanical problems, confidence problems, and lots of excuses.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 07:58 AM

Tampa @ Detroit

Tampa was 0-4 and averaging 11 points per game with their druggie bi racial bi sexual QB Josh Freeman. That was also WITH Doug Martin.
Tampa is 2-4 averaging 24 points per game with rookie Mike Glennon and backup running backs.

So there was this Greg Sciano vs Josh Freeman saga, why did most of the public back that BI QB Josh Freeman? He sucks. He didn't put in the work, and the only reason he was drafted in round 1 is because his former college coach took him. He completed 55% of his passes in college in the big 12. He's not that good and he was a lazy bum more concerned about the Tampa swingers scene than the NFL.

Let's look at Mike Glennon's NFL resume.
1st game ever, 11 point loss to Phila, 273 26/43 2 TD 1 INT. Not good but not bad, good for your 1st NFL start.
2nd, 8 point loss @ ATL, 256 26/44 2 TD 0 INT. Pretty good first his first road start, but ATL secondary sucks
3rd, Blown out by Carolina, 275 30/51 1 TD 0 INT. Team was blown out by a good defense, garbage yards?
4th, OT loss @ Seattle, 168 yards 17/23 2 TD o INT. Surprisingly played efficient @ Seattle, outplayed R. Wilson.
5th, MNF win vs Miami, 229 yards 27/42 2 TD 1 INT. Won his first game, played well
6th, Win vs ATL, 231 yards 20/23 2TD 0 INT. 2 game winning streak.

2-4 record
1535 yards = 256 per game
62% completion percentage
11 TD 4 INT
87.7 QB rating

One guy at NFL films already says that Glennon is "far more advanced" at playing QB RG3.

Close Menu

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24257294/cosell-glennon-far-more-advanced-than-rg3-playing-nfl-qb

The Bucs are clearly better under Glennon than their BI QB Freeman. Glennon hasn't gone down field too much but he also hasn't made a lot of mistakes and he has been efficient with his completion percentage. I'd argue that his arm has opened up the run game some. Guy throws a pretty ball. I still think he will only be a backup NFL QB but he could grow into a Flacco under the right circumstances.

Detroit is 6-4 but they have only won 1 game by more than 10 points. Their coach is a fake tough guy that sucks. He blew it last week going for a fake field goal.

Last week was another game where I said that Tampa is a good play but do I really want to bet on a 1-7 team coming off a MNF win? I layed off the game but my instincts were right.

5 Dimes has Tampa +10. In this game I would take the Bucs and the points however I will probably look to other games.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 08:13 AM

Minnesota @ Green Bay

I mention this pretty much every week but before the season started I picked the PLAYOFF Minnesota Vikings to go 4-12 and I'm lovin it.

The NFL is trying as hard as they can to have more black head coaches, but the NFL teams were NOT hiring black coaches the last go around. Why? Because the NFL front offices want to hire offensive guys and most of the offensive coordinators are white. I guess there are 2 black ones now and that's high for recent memory, I believe there wasn't a single black offensive coordinator for years. So now the affirmative action people at the NFL don't know what to do but they are crying about it.

Leslie Frazier is a defensive coach and not a very good one at that. He has quite possibly the best RB in NFL history and the guy is going to waste because Frazier knows nothing about offense. He traded up to reach on Christian Ponder who sucks. He brought in Matt Cassell who is a backup QB. He brought in Josh Freeman who is a backup QB. His passing game sucks. His defense isn't even that good and his overall management, clock management and challenges suck. He also has no nut sack or sense of urgency. The Tony Dungy apologists of the world will hate it but Leslie Frazier will get fired and the NFL will have 1 less black head coach.

You don't need to have an Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees to build a passing game. Andy Reid ironically took over for another crappy black defensive coach who knows nothing about offense and look at the Chiefs now. He brings in Alex Smith and look at what they have. They really only have 1 weapon to throw to but they are still getting it done. Reid has also got numbers out of crappy and backup QB's in the past. That's why teams want to hire offensive guys. Especially with the rules changes in the NFL.

Green Bay is down to their 3rd string QB. People have said that Scott Tolzien can play. I didn't watch his last 2 games, I was hoping to watch some tape today or tomorrow. He had some yards last week but 3 picks? That is pretty inconsistent. Still better than Senaca Wallace and that awful delivery. I just wonder why not start Matt Flynn or give Tim Tebow a look to start a couple games?

I would lean Green Bay here but I don't think I want to bet my hard earned money on a 3rd string QB. I want to check out the tape but this is most likely a no play but I would take Green Bay if I had to take somebody.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 08:17 AM

Jacksonville @ Houston

A 2-8 team is laying 10 to a 1-9 team. You have to be a real degenerate to bet this game.

I keep saying that Houston is the best 2 and X team I can remember. They don't suck but they just keep on losing. Remember this team was easily supposed to win this division but they keep losing close games.

Jacksonville has had less net yards than opponents 9 out of their last 10 games, and have won 1 game.
Houston has had more net yards than opponents 8 out of 10 games and have only won 2 games!

This game is a no play for me, but if I had to bet I'd lay the 10 and take Houston at home.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 08:30 AM

Jets @ Baltimore

Speaking of black offensive coordinators, the Ravens downgraded to Jim Caldwell last year and they now have the 3rd worst offensive in the NFL measured by yards. They average less than 1 yard per game more than Miami and 30 more than Jacksonville for the worst spot. The Ravens are the 2nd worst on a yards per play basis with 4.5. They average 20 PPG and that is not enough. The Ravens offense is once again the problem.

The Ravens have lost 4 out of their last 5 games and they have put up 17, 16, 18, 20, and 20 points. That is not going to get it done in the modern passing NFL.

Geno Smith has been awful on the road this year.
Blow out loss to Buffalo last week 14-37
Blow out loss to Cincy in their 2nd to last road game 9-49
Loss to Pittsburgh where they only put up 6 points and lost 6 to 19.
Blow out loss to the Titans 13-38 in the butt fumble part 2 game.

Geno had 103 yards, 0 TD 3 picks and only 8 completions last week
159 yards 0TD 2 INT vs Cincy
I mean I could go through the stats but you get the point. Geno sucks but he really sucks on the road.

The Ravens defense has been better at home. I like them at home. They shut down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home.

I'd lean Ravens -3.5 here. I'd consider the under but the total is low. Ravens are getting more public action but nothing crazy. It can be tough laying more than a FG for a team that lost 4 out of 5 games, can't move the ball, and this game will be low scoring. I will look for easier plays. Ravens ML might be worth considering as well. It is -185 at 5 dimes.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 08:37 AM

San Diego @ KC

San Diego has had some fishy lines this year.
@ Oakland on SNF they were a 3 point fav and they lost pretty bad.
Hosted a hot Indy team, were favored by 1 and won and covered
@ Miami they were 2.5 point favorites and lost

Those were 3 huge sucker bets that a lot of people fell into. This line seems fair. A lot of people are buying into the Chiefs now and think they will bounce back.

Not sure how I feel about this game but Denver could really penetrate with the Chiefs. They just lost to them, and they could be looking ahead to them next week. Philip Rivers is one of the best QB's in the league and he could win @ Arrowhead but the Chiefs are real good there. Not sure but the Chiefs could be unpredictable with Denver on their minds. How focused will they be against their other divisional opponent SD? Public is leaning KC but I think there is more to it than that.

jjgold · 11-23-13, 08:43 AM

C-Gold keeps winning very quietly

Tampa is uderrated
Packers ML

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 08:43 AM

Bears @ Rams -1

This is exactly what the NFL doesn't want. Backup QB Josh McCown against backup QB Kellen Clemens. They want Heisman trophy winner and #1 overall pick Sam Bradford against 1st round pick gunslinger Jay Cutler. This is why the are coming in with all the gay rules about not hitting a QB high, not hitting him low, not leading with your helmet, not touching his helmet. The NFL was throwing pink flags last month and I doubt it was for breast cancer awareness. They are pussifying the game. The NFL got sued for 750 million dollars because most guys go broke after their playing days and they need that money. In 10 years the NFL won't even look like football.

This game really is a no play for me. I don't even know who I'd pick, maybe the Rams coming off a bye playing at home?

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

C-Gold keeps winning very quietly

Tampa is uderrated
Packers ML

Few weeks ago I had like 1500 hits to my thread and I was like 3-2, then last week I go 5-1 and have like 300 hits. Fcuking sucks, I wish I helped more people win money.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 08:53 AM

Carolina @ Miami +4.5

Miami is just a shitty franchise and the PC media just wants to sell papers to they blew the entire story up. Jonathan Martin even apologized to Richie Incognito the Friday after the Thursday night football win against the Bengals. He said he was sorry to put him through this. They were friends, friends talk trash. This is all Jonathan Martin's lawyers.

I am surprised the story would even be a big deal to gamblers or sports fans in general. The language guys use around their friends can be messed up. The shit guys say, especially in an all guy testosterone environment. Not even the "I'll kick your ass" or "I will kill you" stuff but they "I ****** your mom/wife/sister" stuff. We get it, but the 45 year old school teacher is shocked by that language.

I don't like that Miami basically has a new offensive line missing their T,G, and C but Miami has been losing more of their games close. I still think the entire thing is a big distraction and Carolina is coming off a big MNF win.

I'd lean to Miami covering but this really isn't a good game for me.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 08:58 AM

Colts @ Arizona -3

After starting 1-2 Arizona is 6-4 and riding a 3 game winning streak. Palmer has had more turnovers than TDs but that is still a huge improvement of the trash practice squad QB's the Cards had last year. The defense has carried this team allowing only 81 YPG on the ground and holding opposing QB's to have a rating under 80.

Indy has developed into a house hold team this year with big wins @SF, beating Seattle, beating Denver.

Indy had extra time to prep for this game. I think the Colts are a live dog and they are getting 3. I like that, am I a sucker? I am leaning on playing the Colts here.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 09:01 AM

Titans @ Oakland

Haven't watched the Titans much this year but I do like Ryan Fitzpatrick. No commentary on this game.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 09:06 AM

Dallas @ Giants

I will break this game down later. Still collecting my thoughts.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 09:15 AM

Denver @ Patriots

This is the AFC Championship preview, only the AFC championship will be played in Denver
I like the over. Even with potentially crappy weather, 2 HOF QB's against 2 defenses that can be beat.
The Patriots will win the game, maybe with a few bad calls going their way.
Denver will only lose this game, they will win all their others and finish the season 14-2. #1 seed and super bowl champs.
I think Denver having KC last week and KC next week could fcuk with them a little bit.

Denver is the best team in the league and will win the SB, but this Patriots team is absolutely good enough to beat them on the road and at home.

I like the Patriots and the over both.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 09:20 AM

49ers @ Redskins

The more you learn about RG3 the more you dislike him. He tries to throw his coaches under the bus on the sly. SF should easily win this game but all the public money is coming in on SF. I hate that.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 09:25 AM

Locking in Patriots/Denver over 53 right now.

These plays are NOT finalized but this is what I am looking at.

Pitt +1, ideally teased
Patriots +2, I will play the pats just want to get the best number
Colts +3
Maybe Balt ML
Maybe Giants/Dal game

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 04:25 PM

Giants should beat Dallas. Dallas sucks on the road and their defense sucks and they will be missing Sean Lee and Ware is hurt. Eli Manning has never lost in Dallas before this year, but the team turned the ball over 6 times and still nearly won. I really believe he was going to drive down the field and win the game.

The Giants defense looks decent statistically but they aren't. The only reason the stats are there is because they were
A) getting beat down in games or
B) Were beating 3rd string NFL QB's.

The Giants are also a weird team with weird crap that happens to them. Lose 6 games in a row and then win 5 in a row? I could see the refs giving the Giants the call to keep NY in the playoff race.

C-Gold · 11-23-13, 04:26 PM

Oh and the thing about the Colts is they are facing their old coach. He knows the weaknesses of the players and should be able to piece together a solid game plan.

SEAHAWKHARRY · 11-23-13, 10:03 PM

When do u post your final picks for Sunday?

C-Gold · 11-24-13, 12:36 AM

I am NOT going with Indy.

Indy has not been the same without Reggie Wayne and they are facing a real defense in Arizona. Arizona's defense is holding opposing QB's to have a rating under 80 and they are giving up 81 YPG rushing. That means Luck will be in lots of 3rd and longs throwing against a good secondary.

Indy has NOT been as good on the road. Yes they had a signature win at San Francisco but besides that they haven't been nearly as good on the road as they are at home.

Plus Arians was the coach of pretty much all these Colts last year and he should develop a good game plan, and know what to attack and exploit. The line looks low, you want to take the Colts getting 3 as they should be a live dog but it's not worth it. This should be the game that shocks people. Oooooo wow, did you see the Cards crept up on people and are 7-4 now? Wow.

C-Gold · 11-24-13, 12:52 AM

Week 12 card
Pittsburgh Steelers +1
Baltimore Money Line -175
New York Giants -1
Denver/New England Over 53
New England +2.5

I really wanted to tease the Steelers up to +8 but there isn't a good teaser option to go with them and F it, they lost by 10+ 3 times.

I really like Baltimore to win at home here and the line is only -3 right now but the game should be low scoring and I am scared they might get into another one of those 19-17 type games again. I would rather pay more and make sure I win money than be in one of those win but not cover type games. This could be 20-14, 23-21, 19-17 who knows but I do like the Ravens to come out on top.

Dallas's D is giving up 313+ yards passing per game and Eli threw for 450 last time these teams played. If it wasn't for a bone headed turnover by the RB Eli probably would have had 500 yards and the win. Under these weather conditions I don't think Eli will anywhere near approach those numbers but I think the Giants win.

Pats will get the calls and win giving Denver their 2nd and last loss of the season. Game goes over with 2 HOF QB's weather and all.

C-Gold · 11-24-13, 10:06 AM

Good day to win some money.

SEAHAWKHARRY · 11-24-13, 10:43 AM

Love your picks today good luck c gold

C-Gold · 11-24-13, 10:50 AM

Thanks bro. I wish I could have teased the Steelers up to +8 but there isn't a good option. I don't like teasing through 0 and losing a point. No big favs. No other dogs besides the ones I am taking. Plus the Steelers have lost 3 out of the last 10 by double digits. Might as well just take them to win here.

C-Gold · 11-24-13, 01:37 PM

Jets Ravens is 3-3 right now.

Looks very cold and windy out there which is a big advantage to Flacco who has the strongest arm in the NFL. Geno has a noodle arm.

C-Gold · 11-24-13, 02:24 PM

Geno Smith 2/7 21 yards Looks freaking awful.

Can't play on the road, can't play in the cold and his arm is too weak to throw in the wind. Guy sucks.

C-Gold · 11-24-13, 03:10 PM

Geno Smith has got to be the worst starting QB in the NFL.

C-Gold · 11-24-13, 03:24 PM

GINA SMITH

C-Gold · 11-24-13, 04:12 PM

2-0. Good calls with Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Good calls with Tampa and Miami, I am happy.

jjgold · 11-24-13, 04:13 PM

Great Work C-Gold even with write ups~~

C-Gold · 11-24-13, 04:39 PM

Thought SD would cover also and even have a chance in this game.

C-Gold · 11-25-13, 06:56 AM

Originally posted by c-gold

week 12 card
pittsburgh steelers +1 ------------> win
baltimore money line -175 ---------> win
new york giants -1 ----------------> loss
denver/new england over 53 -------> best bet easy win
new england +2.5 -------------------> win

4-1
3-1 ats, 1-0 ml

C-Gold · 11-25-13, 07:02 AM

It was also a great call to realize Indianapolis was actually a crappy bet and back out of it.

C-Gold · 11-26-13, 12:00 AM

Remember guys, short week this week. I will try and get some picks out there.