Interesting Hilton Contest System/Trend hitting over 70%

[747planes]

Week 9 LVH SuperContest NFL Picks By Most Contestants (2-3 Last Week, 10-29-1 ATS YTD)
1	Houston +2.5	By 347
2	New Orleans -6	By 300
3	Kansas City -3	By 284
3	Baltimore -2.5	By 284
5	Oakland -2.5	By 268

Week 9 LVH SuperContest NFL Picks By Widest Margin (2-3 Last Week, 12-27-1 ATS YTD)
1	Baltimore -2.5	By 131
2	Cincinnati -2.5	By 127
3	Oakland -2.5	By 125
4	Tennessee -3	By 104
5	Seattle -16	By 100

[Lo$t]

Why not just fade this guy?

[747planes]

Its not one guy, its consensus. Yes, the idea is to fade those plays. I already have philly moneyline and cleveland moneyline, so feeling good. Not touching the others. With the QB situation in buffalo, it might not be a good idea to fade kansas city. just, posted this info if anyone want to track and fade it..

[Bet10Heinekens]

been using the capping contest to locate the squares

[face]

amazing how the majority is wrong at such a high rate
i might just do this system, whenever i really like a side it's completely wrong

[Vinnie Paz]

Where do you guys get this stuff at

Post todays top NBA sides somebody please

[etothep]

Where do you guys get this stuff at

Post todays top NBA sides somebody please

I, too, am interested in going to a Football handicapping contest for NBA fades

[Big Bear]

please post next week

[BeatTheJerk]

Its not one guy, its consensus. Yes, the idea is to fade those plays. I already have philly moneyline and cleveland moneyline, so feeling good. Not touching the others. With the QB situation in buffalo, it might not be a good idea to fade kansas city. just, posted this info if anyone want to track and fade it..

This guy's f u c k i n g sharp. Way to go Taylor .... (just a saying around my parts of town)

[Ghenghis Kahn]

keep this thread alive...

another note, houston really needs to get a new kicker.

every time he kicks, i feel like he's gonna miss it. no joke.

[Mako-SBR]

Already examined this a few weeks ago. This is the first season it's happened, all other times previously the LVH Top 5 consensus picks WON for the duration of the season, fyi.

A couple reasons come to mind as to why this specific year's contest is different:

1. LVH Supercontest participation doubled this year versus last year's players, to a whopping 1000 entries. Basically every chucklehead wanna-be threw his $1500 into the ring thanks to remote runner services in Vegas popping up in bulk, particularly from 2-3 man out of state buddy "teams" who pooled their entry fee to limit the damage to their meager wallets.

As you would expect, this is having an effect in bringing a more square betting element to the weekly picks versus previous contests where dogs were more targeted.

2. Despite what I just pointed to in #1, it's only a fluke and not something that should be tailed. Sorry guys.

Basically it's an uncharacteristically bad year thus far for the public, having a far worse-than-normal go at it so far versus previous full season data on games where 80% or more of bets are placed on one side.

I'm sure this will come as a shock to the sharp sharp sharp oh-so-sharp super-sharp pro handicappers on SBR , but the public usually does come in around .450-.500 for the season on side bets ATS when all is said in done. Amazingly they sometimes even WIN outright for the year.

Yep, despite what you hear all day long every day from the so-called experts, the squares win nearly as much as the SHARPS do year over year when all is said and done.

It doesn't happen all the time however, and it's not happening this year as I mentioned, but in 8 out of the last 10 seasons the square public actually did just fine versus the SHARP PROs.

Here is some data to chew on about it, within the chart are the wins/losses ATS for all side bets in which 80% or more of the money bet was on the favorite at the time of closing over the past 7 seasons.

The last line, 2013-2014, demonstrates what's happening in the LVH "Top 5" consensus picks, which is an unusually bad year for the public (6-19).

Last season, 2012-2013, you can see that not only did the square bettor win overall, they made a killing at 27-18...yes, it doesn't happen much, but the public can actually get it right the whole year. Who knew.

<input class="filterListCheck" name="2007-08 " type="checkbox" style="margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; cursor: pointer;">	2007-08	16-17	-6.7%	-$221
<input class="filterListCheck" name="2008-09 " type="checkbox" style="margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; cursor: pointer;">	2008-09	17-14	9.4%	+$290
<input class="filterListCheck" name="2009-10 " type="checkbox" style="margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; cursor: pointer;">	2009-10	25-24	0.4%	+$19
<input class="filterListCheck" name="2010-11 " type="checkbox" style="margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; cursor: pointer;">	2010-11	27-24	5.6%	+$284
<input class="filterListCheck" name="2011-12 " type="checkbox" style="margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; cursor: pointer;">	2011-12	25-29	-8.5%	-$460
<input class="filterListCheck" name="2012-13 " type="checkbox" style="margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; cursor: pointer;">	2012-13	27-18	18.6%	+$835
<input class="filterListCheck" name="2013-14 " type="checkbox" style="margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; cursor: pointer;">	2013-14	6-19	-51.8%	-$1,294

Hope this helps, it was somewhat surprising to me as well when I pulled the numbers after spotting how "badly" most cappers in the LVH event are doing this year and thinking there was something to gain from it.

[a4u2fear]

This is posted weekly across the street, not hard to find

[Big Bear]

i think 747 planes is on to something here.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

what's the fade this week?

[Naz18]

The top picks this week are:

NO 380
SF 307
ARI 284
CHI 266
BAL 253

[etothep]

Week 10 LVH SuperContest NFL Picks By Most Contestants (1-4 Last Week, 11-33-1 ATS YTD)
1	New Orleans -6.5	By 380
2	San Francisco -6	By 307
3	Arizona -2.5	By 284
4	Chicago +2.5	By 266
5	Baltimore +1.5	By 253

Week 10 LVH SuperContest NFL Picks By Widest Margin (1-4 Last Week, 13-31-1 ATS YTD)
1	New Orleans -6.5	By 268
2	Arizona -2.5	By 165
3	Tampa Bay +2.5	By 132
4	NY Giants -7	By 113
5	San Francisco -6	By 108

For the visual learners

[gameday10]

I track across the street and have gathered data for this and other things. Another interesting statistic, one of many I have, using the differential's Top 5 for Overall selections. This season, a differential > 250 is 0-9-1. NO falls into that this week, with NO falling into a ton of my data selections as a fade. Have many other system selections but figured I would throw that one out there for everyone.

[cheddar327]

Great info....I love it. Thanks!

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i guess that makes dallas a 2 unit play for me...

[daneblazer]

Saw this across the street, pretty amazing success rate this season

[jjgold]

There are trends everyday on every game that hit 70%, that is why they are useless

[broadway6]

There are trends everyday on every game that hit 70%, that is why they are useless

Gold. The trend of u picking losers is solid.

[etothep]

Gold. The trend of u picking losers is solid.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_burn_centers_in_the_United_States

[Big Bear]

damn i like all those

[Vinnie Paz]

damn i like all those

big fukkin surpise

[broadway6]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._United_States

[Big Bear]

big fukkin surpise

haha

[Big Bear]

what are this weeks picks?

[Vinnie Paz]

Bump for the masses

[Smoke]

masses for the bump

[747planes]

Week 11 LVH SuperContest NFL Picks By Most Contestants (4-1 Last Week, 15-34-1 ATS YTD)
1	New Orleans -3	By 416
2	Kansas City +8	By 307
3	New England +2.5	By 272
4	San Diego -1.5	By 245
5	NY Jets +1	By 214

Week 11 LVH SuperContest NFL Picks By Widest Margin (3-2 Last Week, 16-33-1 ATS YTD)
1	New Orleans -3	By 273
2	Kansas City +8	By 162
3	San Diego -1.5	By 128
4	Houston -7	By 101
5	Tampa Bay +1.5	By 94

[Vinnie Paz]

Thanks

Sf/buff/mia/car

Not sure about Oakland yet or if I can bet the tampa game.

[Coach Potato]

i dunno if it will continue to be so bad for the rest of the season. Anyone fading from now will probably hit 50% probably.

[Smoke]

i dunno if it will continue to be so bad for the rest of the season. Anyone fading from now will probably hit 50% probably.

[jarvol]

i dunno if it will continue to be so bad for the rest of the season. Anyone fading from now will probably hit 50% probably.

Especially when dumbshits advertise it for the dumbass masses to see in week 11.