MNF: Chargers +1 over Colts

[ThaTopMoron]

Why aren't the Colts -3 here?

game after Seattle battle.... game b4 going home vs Peyton

but still... Colts are favored and should be.

[Monitor-Tan]

In theory, the Colts and the over looks like a pair of slam dunks.

One won't cash. Just not sure which.

I'm going with neither!

[9ersPride]

Bolt and over

[Don Giovanni]

I'll preface my opinion with the fact that I'm 28-27 on the football season (NCAA & NFL) for -.8 units. The Indy team that goes into San Diego tonight is the same team that went into San Francisco and thumped a physical 49ers team and put 34 up on a solid Seattle defense last week. San Diego turned the ball over 5 times last week which most likely will not happen tonight, but they did get exposed by the poor man's version of Andrew Luck. Indy has a mentally competent QB who rarely makes the mistakes you would expect of someone given his tenure. The Indy defense has seen its' share of injuries, which is cause for concern, but given all information Indy seems like an easy choice in this game, and that is where I put my inconsequential amount of $.

Vegas makes millions on the fact that the NFL rarely plays out like the squares (like me) believe it will. When San Diego gets a timely turnover (or two) and a special teams play that flips the game, I'll be sitting at home hating the fact that I wasted my time trying to cap the NFL. Good luck to all! -DG

[Speedy88]

I kinda like the Chargers as well. Seems like everytime I bet them on primetime they find a way to fukk up (week 1 vs Hou, last year on MNF against Denver).

As long as Rivers doesn't implode down the stretch Chargers should win this one. Great time to fade the Colts coming off two big wins.

[Bbfromgpt]

Hard for me to back a team that can't run the ball or play d. But it seems like Vegas is begging u to take the colts

[ThaTopMoron]

Hard for me to back a team that can't run the ball or play d. But it seems like Vegas is begging u to take the colts

they want you to think that so you take SD and then you get your ass handed to you

[bringyourDgame]

they want you to think that so you take SD and then you get your ass handed to you

Ok so it's like a WE know they know we know they know

Happy to be on over and Colts then

[t-wizzle]

I kinda like the Chargers as well. Seems like everytime I bet them on primetime they find a way to fukk up (week 1 vs Hou, last year on MNF against Denver).

As long as Rivers doesn't implode down the stretch Chargers should win this one. Great time to fade the Colts coming off two big wins.

They have an awful track record on these Monday night games lately you are right.

I am not 100% sold on Indy. If I am the last one to the party as far as the Colts go then so be it.

[crustyme]

when are you going to log in as lakerboy?

we need your fade!

[GoBlue77]

is this one of those games Vegas hands out free money only to promote their biggest money maker(NFL betting) knowing full well they well get all this money back and then some in the coming weeks?

i want to bet CHARGERS but i just cant do it. will wait to live bet

[pattymayo]

On SD too

More of an Indy fade after a huge win at home last week v Seattle and with Peyton looming next week

Seems like a prime let down spot for Indy

Plus public perception is sky high on Indy and couldn't be worse for SD after their loss last week

Public all over the Colts too

Crazy things happen on MNF

[cant call it]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/2619376-week-7-picks.html

[sneakerhead]

when are you going to log in as lakerboy?

we need your fade!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...k-7-picks.html

Crusty fok wizzle and lb, who you got?

[l7ustin]

i like chargers and under. like chargers more tho. no bet on under. see a close contest. 24-21 chargers. public POUNDING the colts and line stays steady? colts let down after beating undefeated seahawks seems about right.

the afc has owned the nfc this season so maybe we shouldnt be so impressed with the 49ers and seahawk wins?

[Goat Milk]

Rivers is not a good prime time performer. Chargers D is a joke. They don't have any playmakers on that team anymore except for Gates. Their receiver core is not good either. Indy is good in all aspects of the game. They have a winning attitude, better qb, much better running game, much better defense.

If Luck can throw against Seattle's D, playing SD will be a walk in the park for him. 3 tds from Luck tonight. Your under might be good.

Colts win 27-21

[Goat Milk]

you guys even realize the volume of bets that are coming in on different sports? vegas doesn't NEED anyone to win tonight. books are in this for the long haul. They aren't going to be crippled because of one NFL game in a lot of 500+ games that are being bet on any given day. Get a clue.

[t-wizzle]

you guys even realize the volume of bets that are coming in on different sports? vegas doesn't NEED anyone to win tonight. books are in this for the long haul. They aren't going to be crippled because of one NFL game in a lot of 500+ games that are being bet on any given day. Get a clue.

Yea I never said anything along those lines. I haven't brought up who the public is on, what vegas needs, etc. Get a clue.

[Speedy88]

They have an awful track record on these Monday night games lately you are right.

I am not 100% sold on Indy. If I am the last one to the party as far as the Colts go then so be it.

Indy is good, they're a complete team. But good teams lose all the time.

[t-wizzle]

I've got $250 on San Diego +1.5 -105 and $50 on Under 51 -110.

We'll see what happens. Maybe I'm dumb for betting against Luck. Sure seems like most think that is the case.

[l7ustin]

lets just review this weekend then.
Public Pounded: Seattle which lost. New Orleans which lost. Phila which won. Minnesota which lost. Houston which lost. Indy pending.

Lean: Dallas which won. GB which lost. Det which won. Cinci which lost.

Even: Denv, SF, Chi, Oak, Pitt

Doesnt matter what Vegas needs? Keep telling yourself that

[Goat Milk]

Yea I never said anything along those lines. I haven't brought up who the public is on, what vegas needs, etc. Get a clue.

I was talking to you in particular, some of the quotes I read in your thread was just too lazy to quote them.

[mcgeezer1883]

Not sure why SD backers think the Chargers are legit....they've beaten Philly ( who is mediocre at best ) and Dallas on a late game F-up.

books will keep the line low to attract square play on SD. It just got to -3 to reel them in deeper.

[t-wizzle]

I was talking to you in particular, some of the quotes I read in your thread was just too lazy to quote them.

You mean you weren't talking to me in particular?

I just think it's a good spot for San Diego. Coming off a bad loss and small dog at home on national tv. Huge game for the Chargers while Indy has their huge game on deck.

[Goat Milk]

lets just review this weekend then.
Public Pounded: Seattle which lost. New Orleans which lost. Phila which won. Minnesota which lost. Houston which lost.

Lean: Dallas which won. GB which lost. Det which won. Cinci which lost.

Even: Denv, SF, Chi, Oak, Pitt

Doesnt matter what Vegas needs? Keep telling yourself that

Dude you realize that some books take bigger bets on 1 important soccer match than they do on any NFL game? No, it doesn't matter. Because if you've gambled for long you know that there are some weeks where the public absolutely destroys the books in NFL, and some weeks where they get buried, and some weeks where it evens out.

You think 1 game is gonna cripple a big book in Vegas? You have no clue what you're saying.

[Goat Milk]

You mean you weren't talking to me in particular?

I just think it's a good spot for San Diego. Coming off a bad loss and small dog at home on national tv. Huge game for the Chargers while Indy has their huge game on deck.

Yeah. Thought SD too then realized I don't bet on Rivers on prime time. Luck will be ready to go, in Cali, where he's comfy probably. Not that big of a game for Chargers. Chargers almost always do most of their damage at the end of the year. It's a diff team but usually the CHargers don't get off to good starts and they rally at the end to stay close in the division.

There's simply too many injuries on the Chargers. Te'o is the best player on that defense pretty much and that's saying a lot.

The only way I see Chargers winning this game is if Rivers unleashes. If you think he will, then bet them. Indy won't turn the ball over more than 1 time.

[l7ustin]

Dude you realize that some books take bigger bets on 1 important soccer match than they do on any NFL game? No, it doesn't matter. Because if you've gambled for long you know that there are some weeks where the public absolutely destroys the books in NFL, and some weeks where they get buried, and some weeks where it evens out.

You think 1 game is gonna cripple a big book in Vegas? You have no clue what you're saying.

Who said it would cripple the book?? Oh yeah, You did.

There are weeks that the public wins and losses. So far the public has been wrong this weekend. All trends point to SD. The colts are in a tough spot. Guess we'll see.

[JabooFootball]

Dude you realize that some books take bigger bets on 1 important soccer match than they do on any NFL game? No, it doesn't matter. Because if you've gambled for long you know that there are some weeks where the public absolutely destroys the books in NFL, and some weeks where they get buried, and some weeks where it evens out.

You think 1 game is gonna cripple a big book in Vegas? You have no clue what you're saying.

This... the theorys that books operate on short term profit/loss metrics is so counter intuitive. As I wrote in another thread it seems to me that the best bet in this game is the under. We can agree that the colts are the better team, but betting them as a road favorite might not be the best bet. The public has driven the total up, all but one of the Colts games have gone under the total. The Chargers dont have a win under the total.

[crustyme]

I've got air on San Diego +1.5 -105 and more air on Under 51 -110.

We'll see what happens. Maybe I'm dumb for betting against Luck. Sure seems like most think that is the case.

[crustyme]

Crusty fok wizzle and lb, who you got?

since lakerboy/twizzler is on chargers... it's got to be the colts!

[CRM20]

solid Defense!? you suck at this if u think they have a solid defense.....give it up!!!sorry o-line colts win 30-17

[mcgeezer1883]

I got on Colts -7.5 alternate spread (+135) just for the hell of it....30-17 sounds about right

[t-wizzle]

since lakerboy/twizzler is on chargers... it's got to be the colts!

You taking Colts?

[pattymayo]

I got on Colts -7.5 alternate spread (+135) just for the hell of it....30-17 sounds about right

unless that's a typo, you got a horrible line on that. Should be at least +220

[suicidekings]

San Diego has been decent this season. Expectations are finally down on them so of course they are playing well. The defense has been solid and Rivers isn't throwing the ball away as much as year's past.

Indy has a monster matchup next week with the return of Manning and could be in look-ahead mode. I think the Chargers show up and win on their home turf tonight.

Thoughts on this game?

You lost me... By solid, did you mean to say that they're among the worst defenses in the NFL?

In particular, their poor run defense could lead to a lot of opportunities for Luck in play action. Even with the loss of Bradshaw, the backfield of Richardson, Brown, and Herron (just acquired from Cincy) and the surprisingly good Colts offensive line will be a real challenge for SD.