2013 Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1

[Slimpickens]

Orb and I've Struck A Nerve move into #1 and #2 on the Kentucky Derby points list giving them a spot in the gate as part of All Others.Plus you can eliminate at least 5 or 6 horses that were listed as options that ran like allowance horses and another 5 or 6, if not more, that have a hiccup in training or get injured.That would leave 10-14 horses with a chance of even being in the field ,let alone win.

Can't believe the field was 8-5.

I know I wish I had taken the 8/5, absolute free money but just didnt want a ton of money tied up for so long. Looks like my prediction of 5 or 6 from pool 1 actually making it to the derby will be indeed the case.

[trytrytry]

I know I wish I had taken the 8/5, absolute free money but just didnt want a ton of money tied up for so long. Looks like my prediction of 5 or 6 from pool 1 actually making it to the derby will be indeed the case.

ummm no! horrible prediction 5 or 6? ur dreaming

code west, flashback, golden, Itsmylucky, normandy, overanaly, oxbow, revolutionalry, shangi, Supper99, uncaptured, verazz, vyjack and at least 2 others are very reasonable canidates to make the field.. that is 15 horses as possible..will some not make it of course... but your looking at the typial 7 to 11 from pool one to make the field.

[Slimpickens]

ummm no! horrible prediction 5 or 6? ur dreaming

code west, flashback, golden, Itsmylucky, normandy, overanaly, oxbow, revolutionalry, shangi, Supper99, uncaptured, verazz, vyjack and at least 2 others are very reasonable canidates to make the field.. that is 15 horses as possible..will some not make it of course... but your looking at the typial 7 to 11 from pool one to make the field.

You said 7 to 11. Is 7 so far away from the 6 I predicted? LOL. IMO there are only 3 legit contenders that were in derby pool 1. Ofcourse thats just my opinion.

[trytrytry]

You said 7 to 11. Is 7 so far away from the 6 I predicted? LOL. IMO there are only 3 legit contenders that were in derby pool 1. Ofcourse thats just my opinion.

exactly 5 or 6 is wrong...in my opinion...great time of year..im attending my 14th Derby in a row this year!!! u should get to one some year AMAZING fun!

good luck..

did u play pool 2 at all?

also 3 legit derby contenders may be true but there are a ton of legit Derby starters in pool 1 cause many owners who just want a shot will show up!! and with mine that bird actaully winning the race we can never again say a horse has no shot at the derby...

[Slimpickens]

exactly 5 or 6 is wrong...in my opinion...great time of year..im attending my 14th Derby in a row this year!!! u should get to one some year AMAZING fun!

good luck..

did u play pool 2 at all?

No I didnt. No real value IMO as the longer priced horses if they make the derby dont look like serious contenders. Wouldnt suprise me if a new face shows up on the scene in the coming weeks. Did you get involved in pool 2?

[trytrytry]

No I didnt. No real value IMO as the longer priced horses if they make the derby dont look like serious contenders. Wouldnt suprise me if a new face shows up on the scene in the coming weeks. Did you get involved in pool 2?

im made one play on

4	Dynamic Sky i think he closed at 52-1 as I recall

[Slimpickens]

50-1 he closed at. Here are a list of the will pays or the payout for pool 2.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u786/2013KDFWP2FINALodds%26willpays.pdf

[stevenash]

Verazano !

just saying

[Easy-Rider 66]

just saying

Verrazano looks tough, but a lot of things can happen between now and May 4th.

[Easy-Rider 66]

POOL 3 FINAL ODDS
(No., Horse, Pool 1 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 3 odds)
1. Code West, 56-1, 28-1, 29-1, $61.80
2. Den’s Legacy, 77-1, 68-1, 43-1, $89.60
3. Falling Sky, 114-1, 79-1, 95-1, $192.40
4. Flashback, 12-1, 12-1, 15-1, $33.40
5. Goldencents, 20-1, 24-1, 49-1, $101.80
6. Hear the Ghost, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 15-1, $33
7. Itsmyluckyday, 13-1, 13-1, 10-1, $23.80
8. Java’s War, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 31-1, $65.40
9. Mr Palmer, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 54-1, $111.40
10. Noble Tune, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 50-1, $102.40
11. Normandy Invasion, 15-1, 17-1, 18-1, $39.20
12. Orb, 3-2(f), 12-1, 13-1, $29.60
13. Overanalyze, 33-1, 37-1, 49-1, $101.60
14. Oxbow, 26-1, 31-1, 21-1, $44.60
15. Palice Malice, 3-2(f), 40-1, 42-1, $87
16. Revolutionary, 13-1, 15-1, 12-1, $27.80
17. Shakin It Up, 3-2(f), 48-1, 36-1, $74.80
18. Shanghai Bobby, 14-1, 16-1, 18-1, $38.80
19. Uncaptured, 40-1, 35-1, 31-1, $64.40
20. Verrazano, 11-1, 9-1, 7-1, $17
21. Vyjack, 49-1, 11-1, 10-1, $23.20
22. War Academy, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 18-1, $39.80
23. Will Take Charge, 61-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, $41.80
24. Field (all others), 3-2, 3-1, 5-1, $13.40
(f) – Field entry in Pool 1 and/or 2.
Win handle, $266,073.
Exacta handle, $136,094.
Combined handle, $402,167.

• Print

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[stevenash]

Buy Verazano now, you'll be lucky to get 7.20 on Derby day.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Buy Verazano now, you'll be lucky to get 7.20 on Derby day.

Too late as the pool is closed. But agree. Unless he runs a bad race in the Wood, he will probably go off lower than 7/1.

[cecil127]

please realize im a trotter/pacer kinda capper.....

question: is "violence" completely out of it?

[Easy-Rider 66]

please realize im a trotter/pacer kinda capper.....

question: is "violence" completely out of it?

Yes. He is injured.

[cecil127]

well, there went that 2 bucks
maybe 4 bucks...i had him boxed with all other 3 y/o's in an exacta.

now its up to verrazano exacta boxed with "all other 3 y/o's"
&
Shake it up boxed with "all other 3 y/o's"

do i have any shot?

[mikemca]

well, there went that 2 bucks
maybe 4 bucks...i had him boxed with all other 3 y/o's in an exacta.

now its up to verrazano exacta boxed with "all other 3 y/o's"
&
Shake it up boxed with "all other 3 y/o's"

do i have any shot?

Sure you have a shot but I wouldn't be surprised if Verrazano doesn't make the gate due to some kind of setback .


Some recent history

2012- Algorythms
2011-Uncle Mo
2010-Eskendereya
2009-Quality Road


All 4 heavy Kentucky Derby favorites trained by Pletcher, most all the way until the week of the derby...All 4 didn't make the gate

[stevenash]

Too late as the pool is closed. But agree. Unless he runs a bad race in the Wood, he will probably go off lower than 7/1.

Got the price I wanted at 5D

70892064-1

3/25/13 6:13pm

$100.00

$700.00

Pending

3/30/13 3:00pm Horses Other Sports 1139 Verrazano wins Kentucky Derby +700* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Field wins Kentucky Derby

I haven't had this much confidence in a pony since Holy Bull

[Easy-Rider 66]

Got the price I wanted at 5D

70892064-1

3/25/13 6:13pm

$100.00

$700.00

Pending

3/30/13 3:00pm Horses Other Sports 1139 Verrazano wins Kentucky Derby +700* <small style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">vs</small> Field wins Kentucky Derby

I haven't had this much confidence in a pony since Holy Bull

Like an idiot forgot about offshore. Good deal. Like your odds, but if he does not run you lose your $$$. Guess that's the risk you take. GL.

[stevenash]

Like an idiot forgot about offshore. Good deal. Like your odds, but if he does not run you lose your $$$. Guess that's the risk you take. GL.

I hear you, but unless he pulls up totally lame in the Wood, he's off and running.
Horse knows how to win

[Slimpickens]

Buy Verazano now, you'll be lucky to get 7.20 on Derby day.

He has been beating glorified claimers so far.

[stevenash]

He has been beating glorified claimers so far.

I get that, it's a weak field this year, and he's the one that has been standing out for months now.

[Slimpickens]

I get that, it's a weak field this year, and he's the one that has been standing out for months now.

Yea because that angle has worked so well in past derbys.

[Slimpickens]

POOL 3 FINAL ODDS
(No., Horse, Pool 1 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 3 odds)
1. Code West, 56-1, 28-1, 29-1, $61.80
2. Den’s Legacy, 77-1, 68-1, 43-1, $89.60
3. Falling Sky, 114-1, 79-1, 95-1, $192.40
4. Flashback, 12-1, 12-1, 15-1, $33.40
5. Goldencents, 20-1, 24-1, 49-1, $101.80
6. Hear the Ghost, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 15-1, $33
7. Itsmyluckyday, 13-1, 13-1, 10-1, $23.80
8. Java’s War, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 31-1, $65.40
9. Mr Palmer, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 54-1, $111.40
10. Noble Tune, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 50-1, $102.40
11. Normandy Invasion, 15-1, 17-1, 18-1, $39.20
12. Orb, 3-2(f), 12-1, 13-1, $29.60
13. Overanalyze, 33-1, 37-1, 49-1, $101.60
14. Oxbow, 26-1, 31-1, 21-1, $44.60
15. Palice Malice, 3-2(f), 40-1, 42-1, $87
16. Revolutionary, 13-1, 15-1, 12-1, $27.80
17. Shakin It Up, 3-2(f), 48-1, 36-1, $74.80
18. Shanghai Bobby, 14-1, 16-1, 18-1, $38.80
19. Uncaptured, 40-1, 35-1, 31-1, $64.40
20. Verrazano, 11-1, 9-1, 7-1, $17
21. Vyjack, 49-1, 11-1, 10-1, $23.20
22. War Academy, 3-2(f), 3-1(f), 18-1, $39.80
23. Will Take Charge, 61-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, $41.80
24. Field (all others), 3-2, 3-1, 5-1, $13.40
(f) – Field entry in Pool 1 and/or 2.
Win handle, $266,073.
Exacta handle, $136,094.
Combined handle, $402,167.

• Print

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The field in pool 3 isnt usually the favorite is it? How many more new shooters can there really be at this point? Maybe a few.

[stevenash]

^
Let's see how he (Verrazano) runs in the Wood.

[Slimpickens]

^
Let's see how he (Verrazano) runs in the Wood.

Yea for sure. If I was his connections I would want him to sit mid pack in the Wood and actually pass horses in the stretch. Who was the last derby winner that never passed a horse in atleast one preceding race?

[stevenash]

^
I can only guess, no horse.
Secretariat let the speed horses go early, wasn't Smarty Jones, or Mind That Bird, or Big Brown
No horse comes to mind.

[trytrytry]

Yea for sure. If I was his connections I would want him to sit mid pack in the Wood and actually pass horses in the stretch. Who was the last derby winner that never passed a horse in atleast one preceding race?

i think smarty passed a horse in final prep...but War Emblem did not in his ill derby prep he went wire to wire.big brown was wide at the quarter and not yet in front. then took command in Fla dErby..

[Easy-Rider 66]

i think smarty passed a horse in final prep...but War Emblem did not in his ill derby prep he went wire to wire.big brown was wide at the quarter and not yet in front. then took command in Fla dErby..

22 times in Derby history a horse has gone wire to wire, and he was one of them. Believe War Emblem was the last one to do it in 2002..

[nvrlose37]

I'm liking how Java's War closed against Verrazano in the last prep. Those closers are always a threat for money in the Derby.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Flashback off the derby trail with a chip in his knee.

[Louisvillekid1]

Gotta play goldencents @ 20-1 for the hell of it...

[mikemca]

Gotta play goldencents @ 20-1 for the hell of it...

He is 9-1 now

[Easy-Rider 66]

He is 9-1 now

Yeah, DSI has Goldenscents at 7/1 and Verrazano at 5/1.

[Louisvillekid1]

dam!

[Easy-Rider 66]

^ The SA Derby score and the fact that Goldenscents rated well pushed that number down.