does anyone feel soory for Seaweed? Where is his future?

[sweep]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Seaweed is most likely a very kind person in the real world

[onacloud]

Hopefully he goes back to where ever he came from and takes PhillyFlyers with him

I remember his first thread was touting how he has had like 10 winning years in a row but then couldn't even make it thru the first month of the NBA without abandoning his thread http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...over-66-a.html



Now dropping a 10 unit bomb on a kick-off prop you have to be shitting me

[tto827]

Seaweed is spot on with that play onacloud. In domes this year the two kickers are well above 60% that it is a touchback, that covers the juice here.
Something tells me the books know SF is going to defer if they win the toss, because Baltimore ALWAYS defers, yet is only -140 to kick off first. Looking at this season SF is 50/50 on defer/receive when they win the toss. So by my thinking Baltimore should be -300, since theoretically they would kick off 75% of the time.

[BIGDAY]

Seaweed is spot on with that play onacloud. In domes this year the two kickers are well above 60% that it is a touchback, that covers the juice here.
Something tells me the books know SF is going to defer if they win the toss, because Baltimore ALWAYS defers, yet is only -140 to kick off first. Looking at this season SF is 50/50 on defer/receive when they win the toss. So by my thinking Baltimore should be -300, since theoretically they would kick off 75% of the time.

[Louisvillekid1]

sharp post TTO

[VegasInsider]

Seaweed is spot on with that play onacloud. In domes this year the two kickers are well above 60% that it is a touchback, that covers the juice here.
Something tells me the books know SF is going to defer if they win the toss, because Baltimore ALWAYS defers, yet is only -140 to kick off first. Looking at this season SF is 50/50 on defer/receive when they win the toss. So by my thinking Baltimore should be -300, since theoretically they would kick off 75% of the time.

Actually, the break even point for plays of -180 is about 65%

You'll need to be more accurate with your percentages to figure out if it has break even potential or not.

Big difference between 65% and "well above 60%"

[VegasInsider]

C'mon guys....DO THE MATH

65 x $100 = $6,500

35 x $180 = $6,300

The break even point is just a oyster hair under 65%

[BIGDAY]

It's +EV VI

[onacloud]

That -180 line is down to -155 right now... so I should go all-in right? +EV

How many times has a returner took the ball out of the end zone 5 yards deep only to get tackled inside the 15? I know you guys see this every Sunday now in the Super Bowl every one wants to make the big play especially to start the game off

I just think its a dumb bet but if its free money go grab that -155

[VegasInsider]

It's +EV VI

What evidence shows it's +EV??

I'm a math guy and if the numbers don't add up, then they don't add up.

I agree it SHOULD hit, but I'm not playing anything that I have to hit 65% to break even.

[tto827]

C'mon guys....DO THE MATH

65 x $100 = $6,500

35 x $180 = $6,300

The break even point is just a oyster hair under 65%

I didn't look it up, I'll admit that, but I've got a very trusted prop source who hammered the -180 on less than 4.5 returns and moved it to the -215 it now stands at. His research backed that up, and I'll trust it. Now if you want to go find out the exact percentages, I'll be willing to bet you it's above 70% of kickoffs by those two in domes that are not returned.

[TheCentaur]

Seaweed seems all nice and innocent in his threads.

Then he gets you alone in a poker room and becomes a raging bull queer. Stay away, unless you like that

[VegasInsider]

That -180 line is down to -155 right now... so I should go all-in right? +EV

How many times has a returner took the ball out of the end zone 5 yards deep only to get tackled inside the 15? I know you guys see this every Sunday now in the Super Bowl every one wants to make the big play especially to start the game off

I just think its a dumb bet but if its free money go grab that -155

I think it's +EV at -155, because the season statistics for touchbacks in a dome show that percentage of touchbacks is higher than the break even point.

It's simple math.

[VegasInsider]

I didn't look it up, I'll admit that, but I've got a very trusted prop source who hammered the -180 on less than 4.5 returns and moved it to the -215 it now stands at. His research backed that up, and I'll trust it. Now if you want to go find out the exact percentages, I'll be willing to bet you it's above 70% of kickoffs by those two in domes that are not returned.

I'd be curious to see it myself. I would make the play at -155 solely because the break even point is significantly lower.

[tto827]

I'd be curious to see it myself. I would make the play at -155 solely because the break even point is significantly lower.

Good thing we didn't bet it lol, as you'll see in the other thread these two only had touchbacks 55% of the time in domes this year.
Tucker 4/5, Akers 2/10 in the reg season, and 5/5 last week.

[VegasInsider]

Oh wow, odds now need to be -120ish

No value at all in terms of math

Thanks for the info. I hope it wins anyways for these guys

[Colts03]

seaweed is good people

[sweep]

seaweed is good people

[Kermit]

Seaweed is a solid guy.

[Seaweed]

sweeper just jealous cause i outlasted him in poker today

sweeperwhere is my future?

sweeper we're living in the future

think about it

[Seaweed]

Seaweed seems all nice and innocent in his threads.

Then he gets you alone in a poker room and becomes a raging bull queer. Stay away, unless you like that

You're too easy to throw off your game, it's all mind games, think about it

[sweep]

Pissed away a 3-1 chip lead to bring it up the rear in 12th HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHa

[Seaweed]

Pissed away a 3-1 chip lead to bring it up the rear in 12th HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHa

Sweeper, i thought i would fold to top 5 but the blinds and Antes got me. What place did you finish again? Oh right, you got a participant ribbon

[Russian Rocket]

I was under impression that Seaweed was a good peoples

[sweep]

Sweeper, i thought i would fold to top 5 but the blinds and Antes got me. What place did you finish again? Oh right, you got a participant ribbon

Weeder- Do me a solid and shine my badges while you're here, while you're at it dust off the old leg lamp for me...Its been 2 months since I was crowned top poster in all of forumville. Thanks guy

[ttwarrior1]

he could shack up with moyal

[Seaweed]

Weeder- Do me a solid and shine my badges while you're here, while you're at it dust off the old leg lamp for me...Its been 2 months since I was crowned top poster in all of forumville. Thanks guy

Sweeper, i got nothing to say you just buried me.

[Seaweed]

he could shack up with moyal

Don't talk with your mouth full

[sweep]

Don't talk with your mouth full

[innovation]

I feel sorry for the kids that get on Seaweeds computer when it's unattended.




Some of those porn images will haunt them for ever.

[GUMMO77]

Seaweed's future, I hope, lands in my beautifully sculpted arms.

Dreamers can dream .. eh?

[ttwarrior1]

handicapping contest , moyal vs seaweed, id be all in on moyal

this is your chance moyal and ill back you

[Russian Rocket]

handicapping contest , moyal vs seaweed, id be all in on moyal

this is your chance moyal and ill back you

thanks for stopping by

[sweep]