Best Bets Sunday 9/25

[Illusion]

Who do you guys like for Sunday?

I will track everybodies plays, so please make sure you post a line.

Also, I don't mind if you post parlays, teasers, or round robins, but these plays will not be reflected in the standings.

[Senator7]

For Sunday, 1 Unit Each On:

Titans +7
Eagles -7.5
Saints +4
Colts -13.5
49ers +6.5

Senator 7

[Razz]

One of our favorite general strategies is to bet against NFL teams that looked very impressive the week before that find themselves in a bad position. Three immediately jumped out, and there are a couple more that are smaller plays.

NFL Overall (15-7-0, +21.90*)
NFL Sides (9-4-0, +14.50*)

7* Chargers -5.5 vs. Giants
To say the Chargers will be motivated to win this game would be the ultimate understatement. Not only are they 0-2, they also have to go to New England next week. Add in the hatred of Chargers fans toward Eli Manning, who spurned San Diego last year, and this one shouldn’t be close. Forget San Diego’s 0-2 mark and the Giants 2-0 record, and let us explain why this is a complete mismatch.
The Chargers have the best running back in football, one of the top two tight ends in football, the better quarterback, the better special teams, and a quality defense. They are 10-1-2 their last 13 regular season games against the number. The Giants are traveling across the country on a short week of rest and preparation. They are 2-7 ATS their last nine games on grass. The Giants O-line is a weak link, and their secondary will not be able to cover Gates and McCardell, especially if they are forced to play close to the line of scrimmage respecting Tomlinson. The Chargers are desperate for a win, and get one in commanding fashion.
Prediction: Chargers 34, Giants 13

6* Dolphins +3.5 vs. Panthers
As we mentioned last week in our write-up on the Panthers, they have been one of the best underdogs in history recently. However, they have also been one of the worst favorites, now having only covered 5 of their past 20 games in that role. The Dolphins have been much improved offensively under new HC Saban, and their defense is their usual dominant self, having given up only 27 points through two games. With their opening blowout win over Denver, the Fish have now won 19 of their past 22 home games in the first month of the season. But here’s what seals it: teams who upset the defending Super Bowl champions and then take to the road are only 14-28-1 ATS, including 5-23-1 ATS when taking on a .400 or better foe.
Prediction: Dolphins 17, Panthers 13

6* Packers +4 vs. Buccaneers
The Packers have won 13 straight at Lambeau against Tampa Bay, and now they are a 4-point underdog? Two weeks ago Green Bay would have been at least a 4-point favorite. Because of the general public’s typical overreaction to the first two weeks of the season, this line is moving up. Brett Favre and company have always been at their best with their backs against the wall, and this is close to an early season must-win. Green Bay has only been a home underdog three times in the past 10+ seasons, and they won all three of those games. The Buccaneers have only covered one of their past 9 road non-divisional games, against a Minnesota team that has looked lost so far this season. The Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight at home when taking points (including 4-0 SU & ATS when playing off a loss).
Prediction: Packers 24, Buccaneers 17

4* Patriots +3 @ Steelers
The Patriots have appeared extremely vulnerable this season, while the Steelers look like they will go undefeated. Still, we can’t pass up the Patriots getting points from a team they hammered at Heinz Field in the playoffs last year. The Patriots will be playing with a sense of urgency after being embarrassed last week, and will not want to see their record dip below .500. A year ago, the Steelers stopped the Patriots’ 18-game winning streak. The shoe is on the other foot this year, with the Steelers bringing in the 16-game winning streak. With the Patriots sterling 5-0-1 record recently as an underdog, we think that streak ends this week.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Steelers 21

4* Bears +3 vs. Bengals
Two teams that are certainly on the rise. As good as the Bengals have looked, we prefer to side with what we feel is the best defense in the NFL as a home underdog. The Bears offense has started to come into form, and they will not be blown out of any games because of the ever-improving play of QB Orton, RB Jones, and that dominant defense. Cincy outgained the Browns by just 47 yards, despite the lopsided score, in their last road game. Chicago has covered 15 of their last 18 at home against the AFC, while the Bengals are 3-12 ATS the game after a win against an opponent from the NFC.
Prediction: Bears 14, Bengals 13

3* Vikings -3.5 vs. Saints
Daunte Culpepper has been absolutely terrible this year, but against two good defenses. Now, he faces the perfect remedy in the Saints, who finished dead last in defense last season. Culpepper returns home with enough experience with his new teammates and offensive coordinator to put some points on the board. Despite allowing 37 points to the Bengals, the Vikings defense is improved from last year. The Saints are completely worn down from constantly being in a state of flux this season, and will show their tired legs this week.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Saints 17

3* Colts -13.5 vs. Browns
We aren’t big fans of laying this kind of number in the NFL, but this is as good as spot as any. Much has been made of the Colts defensive production so far this season, but their offense is due for a breakout game. It will come against the Browns’ soft defense, which has given up 872 yards in their first two games. Manning won’t be held to 122 yards passing this week (well, Eli might).
Prediction: Colts 38, Browns 10

3* Rams -6.5 vs. Titans
I like betting on a team coached by Mike Martz about as much as I like the Red Sox, but we felt we had no choice here. This line is only under 7 because the Titans defense held the transparent Ravens offense to 10 points. They are stepping up in class here, and have to travel to watch “The Greatest Show on Turf.” Under Martz, the Rams are 14-2 ATS as a home favorite off a division game, and 10-2 as a home favorite versus the AFC. The Titans come in 2-10 their last 12 on artificial turf, and off an emotional victory over the rival Ravens. Might be a romp.
Prediction: Rams 34, Titans 17

2* Broncos -2.5 vs. Chiefs (Monday)
The Broncos have won and covered four straight at home against the Chiefs. Denver seems to have found some much needed punch with RB Dayne, and the Chiefs’ first two opponents have basically gift-wrapped two wins for KC. Despite the nice start, the jury is still out on the Chiefs defense. There are also solid trends backing this play. The Broncos are 9-2-1 ATS in September division games, and 14-5 ATS at home off San Diego. The Chiefs are only 6-14 ATS on the road off a division game.
Prediction: Broncos 31, Chiefs 24

NFL Totals (6-3-0, +7.40*)

3* Falcons @ Bills Under 36
3* Panthers @ Dolphins Under 36.5
3* Bengals @ Bears Under 39

[bigpig19]

Here we are

4* G.B. Packers +3.5
4* S.D Chargers -5.5
3* Philly Eagles -7.5

Total
2* Bills/Falcons under 36
1* Jets/Jaguars under 34
1* Vikings/Saints over 44
1* Indy/Cleveland over 47

[mtoo]

Indy -13.5
Minny over 44
Philly -7.5

[fabric86]

what do these mean? 6*

[Razz]

Simply put, each * is worth a certain amount. For example, if you play $100 a star, and consider San Diego worthy of being a 7*, as I do, you would take SD to win $700.

[fabric86]

Vip network that I use does have this star program...

[BuddyBear]

It's a gut call I think with the star system. Everyone is different. Some people like it and certainly payouts can be big but conversely losses could be big with a bad day.

For me, the lines are tight enough as it is and I can't ever see how some games are stronger then others. Everytime i place a bet I hold my breath and wait. I prefer to grind it out one unit at a time and hope by seasons end i can hit somewhere near 55-57%.

But days where i go 5-0 or 6-1 or something like that I sure wish I could increase my bet size in retrospect

[kalmikrazy]

just one for now
dallas over 40 20*

[Razz]

All right, here's the deal. College football has always been our best sport, but we appear clueless there, while MLB and NFL picks have been doing well. As a result, we are going to keep posting NCAA plays in the same manner, but playing each unit as half of what we did before until we break out of our current funk.

Many of you may think this is incorrect, that you should continue playing each unit for the same amount all season. I don't exactly disagree, but feel that handicapping runs in streaks, based on confidence and other aspects. I just wanted to explain where I'm coming from, basically ignore these two paragraphs.

3* D'Backs (Vazquez) -128 vs. Padres (Williams)
2* Braves (Sosa) -133 vs. Marlins (Beckett)
2* Astros (Pettite) -150 @ Cubs (Williams)
2* Orioles (Maine) +150 vs. Red Sox (Wells)

2* Rangers (Dominguez) @ A's (Saarloos) Over 9 -105

[moses millsap]

Northern Illinois put a dent into my day and ruined what would've been an otherwise good day.

2* Davydenko -116
2* Hrbaty -122
1.5* Kirilenko +120
1* Srebotnik -145

[Razz]

Props??????

I am playing all the following at 1-unit each. All lines are available at betjamaica.

Bengals Under 21 Team Total Points -115
We've got the Bears and Under. Bengals offense has been clicking in Ohio, but will struggle in the Windy City against the best defense in the NFL.

Panthers Under 20.5 Team Total Points -115
We've got the Fins and Under. Nick Saban still keeps in contact with former boss Bill Bellicheck. We think his quality defense will be more prepared for the Panthers.

Bills/Falcons - No score last 2 minutes of first half +150
The Bills and Falcons defenses make for a low-scoring game anyways, but especially in a two-minute scenario, as the Falcons are much more of a running team, and the Bills play conservatively, especially after QB Losman's struggles last week.

Mark Hensby +115 vs. Kenny Perry
Mike Weir +120 vs. Scott Verplank
Fred Funk +145 vs. Michael Campbell
Peter Lonard +115 vs. Stewart Cink

Lonard, Hensby, and Weir should all be favored or even, and Funk should only be a very small dog.

[LVHerbie]

It's a gut call I think with the star system. Everyone is different. Some people like it and certainly payouts can be big but conversely losses could be big with a bad day.

For me, the lines are tight enough as it is and I can't ever see how some games are stronger then others. Everytime i place a bet I hold my breath and wait. I prefer to grind it out one unit at a time and hope by seasons end i can hit somewhere near 55-57%.

But days where i go 5-0 or 6-1 or something like that I sure wish I could increase my bet size in retrospect

First off the disclaimer... I'm a recreational small-time bettor... although I probably do alot more scouting then most small timers I do it because I enjoy it and, honestly, if I have a losing week, or even a season, at the amounts I bet I'm not going to be real "broke up" about it, figurtively or literally ;-), in the long run...

I'm kindof in the middle on the stars thing... I definently have games that I like better then others but I don't vary my bets drastically... 3 units is a big bet for me, and, so far, this season, I haven't found a game I like that much... Also, so far this season, I've been averaging only about 2 or 3 2 unit bets a week... College football is the only sport I follow closely so any other sports I bet are on hunches, using picks from other people (who's opinon I respect but don't have to pay $$$ for ;-) ), and sometimes just so I can have some action on a game... thus, I only bet half a unit on these...

I also don't understand how someone can make drastic increases in their units and be able to assign such value rankings, so precisely, to a full card... I'm guessing, but could be wrong, that their star/unit system is more feelings then science... to me if I was betting 10 units to my real strong games and 1 or 2 units to my "weak hunches" I would just bet my strong picks and forget about the others...

but that is just me, and I really don't think either way i neccessarily right or wrong... obviously each better is going have to do what they are comfortable with and, hopefully, we will all cross paths again cashing tickets at the window... ;-)

[LVHerbie]

I'm looking for a big day after a so-so day yesterday... Best idea when looking for a big day? Fade a sucker... Since there is no bigger sucker then the prick (plus, with a -2 total, I need him to lose both picks today to get into the money ;-) ) here are my plays

browns +14
chargers -6

[mad]

Some fine points you made there LV.

[BigD]

Sanits +3.5 1 unit
bangals-3 1unit
Seahawks -6
Mlb White Sox -1,5 (-115) 1unit
Mlb Yanks -105 (-120) 1unit

[EBone]

Razz,

I absolutely love the Bears today. If recent history is any indication, you may want to go and cover yourself with a play on the Bengals. I've actually been so-so on the NFL thus far and absolutely horrendous on CFB. Good luck today, dog.


E

[kdmfox]

Football

Jacksonville +2
Buffalo -3

Baseball

Milwaukee +102
Detroit -110

[freebie]

All right, here's the deal. College football has always been our best sport, but we appear clueless there, while MLB and NFL picks have been doing well. As a result, we are going to keep posting NCAA plays in the same manner, but playing each unit as half of what we did before until we break out of our current funk.

Many of you may think this is incorrect, that you should continue playing each unit for the same amount all season. I don't exactly disagree, but feel that handicapping runs in streaks, based on confidence and other aspects. I just wanted to explain where I'm coming from, basically ignore these two paragraphs.

3* D'Backs (Vazquez) -128 vs. Padres (Williams)
2* Braves (Sosa) -133 vs. Marlins (Beckett)
2* Astros (Pettite) -150 @ Cubs (Williams)
2* Orioles (Maine) +150 vs. Red Sox (Wells)

2* Rangers (Dominguez) @ A's (Saarloos) Over 9 -105

Looks good and Let's cash in on them again

[moses millsap]

Northern Illinois put a dent into my day and ruined what would've been an otherwise good day.

2* Davydenko -116
2* Hrbaty -122
1.5* Kirilenko +120
1* Srebotnik -145

Davydenko LOST
Hrbaty WON
Kirilenko WON
Srebotnik LOST (what a choker, up 2*-0 last set at home, something like 6 of 19 on BPs)

2-2, +0.03 units

As good as it gets for me this weekend supposedly after the massacre yesterday. Good luck with the NFL guys.

[why]

Fish/Panthers u19,-120, 1st half.

[why]

Owned,

NIU was my pick of the day and man did it hurt me, wow, they have no defense! I am going to lay low in the college foots for awhile!

[moses millsap]

Owned,

NIU was my pick of the day and man did it hurt me, wow, they have no defense! I am going to lay low in the college foots for awhile!

Yeah, it was all downhill after the 14-0 start after 6 minutes. After they blocked Akron's XP and allowed Akron to pick it up for a 2 point conversion, I had a bad feeling. Then they storm back, force OT, get the ball first, 1st and 10 at the 11, looks like the stars are alligning, then the INT. Unreal.

[Razz]

Razz,

I absolutely love the Bears today. If recent history is any indication, you may want to go and cover yourself with a play on the Bengals. I've actually been so-so on the NFL thus far and absolutely horrendous on CFB. Good luck today, dog.


E

Nah, I like hearing you're on the same side. There's only a couple gambling related sentences I've never said. One is "I'll take the Bengals -3 @ _____." (Another is "I'll take ______ -3.5/4 @ Green Bay.)

Good luck.

[newb411breaker19]

mlb picks

Sides
Detroit over Mariners -110 1 UNIT

Totals
Marlins/Braves U8 -105 1 UNIT
Astros/Cubs U9 +100 1 UNIT

gluck everyone

[Mr Nuts]

All games 1 unit each
Cincy -3
Car/Miami under35.5
Tampa -3
Pitt -3
Indy -14

[Todd]

Carolina -3
Tampa Bay -3
Jacksonville +3

[BuddyBear]

I'll keep adding as the day goes on

NFL record 9-1 (+7.49 units)

Tenn/STL Under 46 (-106 @Pinn)
OAK/Phil Under 46.5 (-102 @Pinn)
Clev/Indy Under 47 (-110 @SIA)
NE/PITT Under 42 (-104 @Pinn)
DAL/SF Under 40.5 (-107@Canbet)
Arizona/Seattle Under 42 (-110@SIA)

[MAB]

2 picks for today:

2* Colts -13.5 (-105)
1* Giants +6.5 (+104)

[David]

San Diego Chargers -6.5 (-112)

[OldeTymePlaya]

arizona cards +6
san fran +6.5
ny giants +6.5

[Razz]

I love this kind of game. The D'Backs have give up 2 hits, one walk, and comitted no errors through 5 1/2 innings, and yet have given up three runs (one scored by a guy who struck out and advanced to first when the ball wasn't caught). Meanwhile, they have 8 hits and a walk, and yet have only managed two runs.

Also, is it even possible that the Patriots can blow this game? They should be winning by two touchdowns, but have missed a field goal, and turned the ball over twice around the Steelers 10-yard line.

[David]

Oakland Athletics (Saarloos) -135

[moses millsap]

RESULTS FOR TODAY

Kalmikrazy 1-0, +20.00
Razz 11-12, +6.35
BigD 4-1, +2.90
LVHerbie 2-0, +2.00
Newb411breaker19 2-0-1, +2.00
Bigpig19 3-4, +1.30
OWNED 2-2, +0.03
Kdmfox 2-2, -0.10
David 1-1, -0.35
Todd 1-2, -1.20
Why 0-1, -1.20
Mtoo 1-2, -1.20
OldTymePlaya 1-2, -1.20
Senator7 2-3, -1.30
BuddyBear 2-4, -2.37
MAB 0-2, -3.10
Mr Nuts 1-4, -3.40