Best Bets Sunday 9/18

[Illusion]

Who do you guys like for Sunday?

I will track everybodies plays, so please make sure you post a line.

Also, I don't mind if you post parlays, teasers, or round robins, but these plays will not be reflected in the standings.

[Senator7]

For Sunday, 1 Unit Each On:

Cincinnati -3
Buffalo +2.5
New England -3
Atlanta +1
Miami +6.5

Senator 7

[MAB]

San Diego +3

I think San Diego is a solid team. Gates will be back this week. I think Denver is overrated.

Any opinions on this game?

[Razz]

Considering them myself. San Diego is unquestionably the better team, especially with Gates. They always struggle in Denver, though, so I'm not sure yet.

[Senator7]

I thought about that line too. Denver is not nearly as bad as they looked in Miami on Sunday. Gates will definitely help the Chargers, but this line didn't stand out to me and after my handicapping, it didn't present any value on either side.

Senator 7

[aceking]

New England -3 looks good , Carolina is overrated.

[wareagle1980]

Lions -2
Bucs -2.5
Pats -3
Chargers +3


6pt Teaser
Colts -3
Pats +3


Great Forum guys.
I work on a Technical Support helpdesk and I feel like this guy every day @ 5
.:+firework

[OldeTymePlaya]

I don't know if you are using particular lines but I'm just looking at Pinnacle right now

tenn +3.5
indy -9
chicago +1
tampa bay -2
new england -3
seattle -pick
arizona -pick
miami +6
oakland +1
wash +6

[Razz]

Week 2 NFL

NFL Overall (7-6-0, -6.80*)
NFL Sides (4-3-0, -5.20*)

7* Panthers +3 vs. Patriots
We’re not big fans of betting against the Patriots, but here we go for the second week in a row. This was a surprising line to us, as we expected the much-hyped Panthers to be favored, or, more likely, that the line would be around pick. Carolina has plenty of motivation this week. They feel as if they need to win this game to avoid getting off to a similar start as last year, and they would like a measure of revenge from heartbreaking Super Bowl loss two years ago.
The Panthers have been one of the most amazing underdogs in NFL history the last two years, going 14-2 as a dog in that span. Meanwhile, the Patriots have been only average ATS on road grass (8-8-1) the past three years. The Panthers running game should roll over the weakened Patriots LBing corps. Despite the 10-point win over the defenseless Raiders, the Pats did show chinks in the armor, having a punt and XP blocked, as well as giving up their longest defensive play in five years.
Prediction: Panthers 34, Patriots 20

5* Bears +1.5 vs. Lions
The Lions D looked good in Week 1, but Detroit has been a terrible road team recently. The Lions‘ offense has been very unimpressive, despite the numerous weapons. QB Harrington did not throw a TD pass in preseason, and threw for less than 170 yards last week at home against a leaky Packers secondary. Bears rookie QB Orton accruing much praise for his composure, and he has plenty of weapons against a Lions defense that is nowhere near as capable as Redskins defense he faced last week. RB Benson should have more of an impact this weak, and if not, Jones is a satisfactory choice also. No one in the Lions secondary can handle new WR Muhammed. Lions have only been favored in 2 of their last 64 road games, and lost both of those games SU. The Bears have double revenge, and get it here.
Prediction: Bears 20, Lions 13

4* Buccaneers -2 vs. Bills
Defensive struggle that we expect the Bucs to win. They have the advantage of a veteran QB in Griese, and a game-breaking RB in Cadillac Williams. Their offense will do enough to put some points on the board, while the Buc defense confuses and frustrates new Bills QB Losman. The Bucs have covered five in a row in this series. The home crowd should propel TB to 2-0.
Prediction: TB 20, Bills 10

3* Cardinals pick vs. Rams
The home team has been dominant ATS in Cardinals games, to the tune of 23-9 last 32 games. The Cardinals are simply the better team, as last week’s final did not at all tell the story of the game (Giants ran kickoff and punt back for touchdown). St. Louis continues to be a road favorite (line is down to pick at time of post), and we aren‘t sure why. They are 3-14 their last 17 in that role. Martz is one of the worst coaches in the league, and Green will be able to lead his team to the win here.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Rams 21

3* Seahawks pk vs. Falcons
The Falcons go across the country to play a Seattle team that has failed to cover last eight home games. Nonetheless, we think the odds makers have overvalued last week‘s results. We are getting a great price because of the Falcons win in what was a sloppy game against an overrated Philly team. Falcons are prone to laying eggs on the road; witness last year’s 56-10 blowout at the hands of a KC team that missed the playoffs.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17

NFL Totals (3-3-0, -1.60*)

4* Redskins @ Cowboys Under 36.0
This series is always tightly contested, and the Redskins have only increased the likelihood that this one goes under by benching Patrick Ramsey in favor of Mark Brunell. Ramsey has more big-play potential, and was more likely to turn the ball over. The Redskins will play conservatively with Brunell at the helm, and QB Portis will get the ball on numerous occasions. The Skins D is good enough to handle stone-footed Drew Bledsoe and the Cowboys running game.

3* Buffalo @ Tampa Bay Under 35.5
These are two very stout defenses, and have already impressed us this season. The Buccaneers dominated the Texans offense last week, and check Tampa holding the Vikings without an offensive touchdown in Minnesota. Losman will struggle in his first road start, and the Bills can at least keep the Bucs offense to a reasonable number.

2* Dolphins @ Jets Under 37.0
Plenty of good teams have gone to KC and gotten blown away. Still the Jets have deeper problems offensively, as QB Pennington appears to be a shell of himself after his surgery. The Dolphins looked impressive on offense last week at home against a poorly coached, overvalued Broncos team. Their defense will still keep them in this one, but they will struggle on offense.

[BuddyBear]

Going to start posting the plays that I have already put in and I'll keep updating it as the week goes on so if you are interested just check back in later.

As always, plays are for 1 unit and almost all plays are against the public. Line value and line forecasting are very important in my betting strategy so sometimes a bet on Monday morning is better than a bet on Saturday afternoon if you can predict public reaction. I'll try to stick to 3-5 games a week as I've told myself but it could be less, could be more depends on the quality of the games.

NFL 3-1 (+1.78 units)


Carolina +3.5 (-110 @SIA)
Seattle -1 (-107 @Canbet)
St. Louis +1 (+100 @Pinnacle)
Denver -2.5 (+100 @SIA)
NYJ -5 (-104 @Pinnacle)


Good Luck Guys

:0000016:

[newb411breaker19]

nice wheels

[Razz]

6pt Teaser
Colts -3
Pats +3

I would recommend playing a 6.5 point teaser if you're going to play this. It just seems a lot more logical to have Colts -2.5 and Patriots +3.5.

Actually I would recommend not even thinking about taking the Patriots in any side or teaser this week, but that's your call. Anyway, good luck.

[kalmikrazy]

20* - Minn under 47
20 * dallas -6 (MNF)

[Agent Smith]

Anyone else get warm and fuzzie for Buffalo +120?

[Mudcat]

Not me Agent Smith. Tampa is one of my top picks of the week.

[Razz]

Adding 4* NYJ -5.5

[Trouble Maker]

Buffalo Ml+120
New England -3-110
Atlanta Ml+100
Kansas City -1

[Razz]

At least all my baseball teams can't outgain the opposition as an underdog and still lose.

3* Chisox (Contreras) @ Twins (Lohse) -107
2* Brewers (Capuano) @ Astros (Rodriguez) -105
1* Pirates (Perez) vs. Reds (Milton) -120
1* Phillies (Brito) @ Marlins (Beckett) +155

2* Braves (Thomson) @ Mets (Glavine) Over 8.5 -120

[hoppa_long]

Sides
Dallas -6
Raiders +1
Denver -3
Tampa -2.5
Bears +1.5
Jags +9

Totals
Buff /Tampa U 35
Pitt/Houston O 38.5
Mia/Jets U 37

[moses millsap]

I hate the NFL, but like Carolina, Seattle, and Arizona FWIW...We'll see how the overnight tennis goes first...

Sylvania 300
Kurt Busch to win +700
Kurt Busch Top 3 +100

Tennis
Dementieva +200
Myskina +155
Coria +300
Andreev -170

[David]

Philadelphia Eagles -12.5 -111

[HAPPY BOY]

packers -6
carolina +3
bears +1
jacksnvlle +9
bills u (34)

[Emmdoubleu]

At least all my baseball teams can't outgain the opposition as an underdog and still lose.

3* Chisox (Contreras) @ Twins (Lohse) -107
2* Brewers (Capuano) @ Astros (Rodriguez) -105
1* Pirates (Perez) vs. Reds (Milton) -120
1* Phillies (Brito) @ Marlins (Beckett) +155

2* Braves (Thomson) @ Mets (Glavine) Over 8.5 -120

Frustrating game sometimes....err most of the time.

Love the total play here..not too many pitchers bring less stuff to the game that these two...other than Redman.

Also, notice you are on the Brewer's an awful lot, which no doubt has served you well as they are typical a great value and playing well. What are your thoughts on that team

[Mr Nuts]

Det-1
Tampa-2
NE-3
all for 1 unit


2units KC-1

[LVHerbie]

I don't really like betting pro fb as well as a college... just a few good (hell, more likely bad) hunches... consider these 1/2*s or something like that... ;-)

denver -3 +119 (pinnacle) - .5 unit
under 44 rams/cards - .5 unit
carolina +3.5 -115 (bo dog) - .5 unit

[Razz]

Yesterday's results:

LVHerbie - 4-0, +6.0 units
kalmikrazy - 1-1, +3.5 units
David - 1-0, +1.0 units
kdmfox - 2-1, +0.9 units
Todd - 3-2, +0.8 units
Trouble Maker - 3-3, -0.3 units
OWNED - 3-10, -2.15 units
Illusion - 0-1, -2.2 units
BuddyBear - 2-4, -2.4 units
newb411breaker19 - 0-4, -4.04 units
Senator7 - 2-7, -5.7 units
bigpig19 - 2-4-1, -8.9 units
EBone - 2-7, -13.6 units
Razz - 5-14, -23.8 units

[Razz]

Frustrating game sometimes....err most of the time.

Love the total play here..not too many pitchers bring less stuff to the game that these two...other than Redman.

Also, notice you are on the Brewer's an awful lot, which no doubt has served you well as they are typical a great value and playing well. What are your thoughts on that team

I've praised Ned Yost here on SBR before, and I love his team. As you said, they are undervalued. Also, Capuano has been wonderful in his road starts this year. I can't pass up this pitching mismatch.

Good luck everyone, and I hope today goes better for us who got smashed yesterday.

[moses millsap]

Woke up just in the nick of time to see Myskina blow a 6-4, 4-1 lead while serving. She loses 5 straight games, broken 3 times, to lose the 2nd set 6-4. Unreal.

[why]

The Miami Dolphins +6

[moses millsap]

Pitt -4.5
Seattle -1
Arizona -1
Indy -9
Tampa Bay -2.5
New England -3 (Liked Carolina, but the 3 people I like to fade most are on the Panthers and I can't side with them)

[kdmfox]

Atlanta .. Pk
Detroit .. Pk
New England .. -3 Best Bet


I had a decent day yesterday ... Razz, I feel your pain on some of those games ... Last night I played Wash +133 on the late game with San Diego ... Wash was ahead 5-0 after 8 innings at which point I went to bed which was well past midnight here ... San Diego scored 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th after 2 outs and 3 more in the 12th to win the game ... What was that Yogi quote? ... The Fox

:frustrate

[clonecat]

Pittsburgh -5
Minnesota +3 1/2
Chicago +1
Buffalo +3
Atlanta +1

[moses millsap]

Riggs can't control his car and takes out Busch in the process

[moses millsap]

5* San Francisco Giants (Lowry/Dessens) -166

[Emmdoubleu]

NFL Overall (7-6-0, -6.80*)
NFL Sides (4-3-0, -5.20*)

7* Panthers +3 vs. Patriots
We’re not big fans of betting against the Patriots, but here we go for the second week in a row. This was a surprising line to us, as we expected the much-hyped Panthers to be favored, or, more likely, that the line would be around pick. Carolina has plenty of motivation this week. They feel as if they need to win this game to avoid getting off to a similar start as last year, and they would like a measure of revenge from heartbreaking Super Bowl loss two years ago.
The Panthers have been one of the most amazing underdogs in NFL history the last two years, going 14-2 as a dog in that span. Meanwhile, the Patriots have been only average ATS on road grass (8-8-1) the past three years. The Panthers running game should roll over the weakened Patriots LBing corps. Despite the 10-point win over the defenseless Raiders, the Pats did show chinks in the armor, having a punt and XP blocked, as well as giving up their longest defensive play in five years.
Prediction: Panthers 34, Patriots 20

5* Bears +1.5 vs. Lions
The Lions D looked good in Week 1, but Detroit has been a terrible road team recently. The Lions‘ offense has been very unimpressive, despite the numerous weapons. QB Harrington did not throw a TD pass in preseason, and threw for less than 170 yards last week at home against a leaky Packers secondary. Bears rookie QB Orton accruing much praise for his composure, and he has plenty of weapons against a Lions defense that is nowhere near as capable as Redskins defense he faced last week. RB Benson should have more of an impact this weak, and if not, Jones is a satisfactory choice also. No one in the Lions secondary can handle new WR Muhammed. Lions have only been favored in 2 of their last 64 road games, and lost both of those games SU. The Bears have double revenge, and get it here.
Prediction: Bears 20, Lions 13

4* Buccaneers -2 vs. Bills
Defensive struggle that we expect the Bucs to win. They have the advantage of a veteran QB in Griese, and a game-breaking RB in Cadillac Williams. Their offense will do enough to put some points on the board, while the Buc defense confuses and frustrates new Bills QB Losman. The Bucs have covered five in a row in this series. The home crowd should propel TB to 2-0.
Prediction: TB 20, Bills 10

3* Cardinals pick vs. Rams
The home team has been dominant ATS in Cardinals games, to the tune of 23-9 last 32 games. The Cardinals are simply the better team, as last week’s final did not at all tell the story of the game (Giants ran kickoff and punt back for touchdown). St. Louis continues to be a road favorite (line is down to pick at time of post), and we aren‘t sure why. They are 3-14 their last 17 in that role. Martz is one of the worst coaches in the league, and Green will be able to lead his team to the win here.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Rams 21

3* Seahawks pk vs. Falcons
The Falcons go across the country to play a Seattle team that has failed to cover last eight home games. Nonetheless, we think the odds makers have overvalued last week‘s results. We are getting a great price because of the Falcons win in what was a sloppy game against an overrated Philly team. Falcons are prone to laying eggs on the road; witness last year’s 56-10 blowout at the hands of a KC team that missed the playoffs.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Falcons 17

NFL Totals (3-3-0, -1.60*)

4* Redskins @ Cowboys Under 36.0
This series is always tightly contested, and the Redskins have only increased the likelihood that this one goes under by benching Patrick Ramsey in favor of Mark Brunell. Ramsey has more big-play potential, and was more likely to turn the ball over. The Redskins will play conservatively with Brunell at the helm, and QB Portis will get the ball on numerous occasions. The Skins D is good enough to handle stone-footed Drew Bledsoe and the Cowboys running game.

3* Buffalo @ Tampa Bay Under 35.5
These are two very stout defenses, and have already impressed us this season. The Buccaneers dominated the Texans offense last week, and check Tampa holding the Vikings without an offensive touchdown in Minnesota. Losman will struggle in his first road start, and the Bills can at least keep the Bucs offense to a reasonable number.

2* Dolphins @ Jets Under 37.0
Plenty of good teams have gone to KC and gotten blown away. Still the Jets have deeper problems offensively, as QB Pennington appears to be a shell of himself after his surgery. The Dolphins looked impressive on offense last week at home against a poorly coached, overvalued Broncos team. Their defense will still keep them in this one, but they will struggle on offense.

Nice day so far