Guru's Golden Picks: AFL Week 1
Alright, I've done some homework now. I'm ready to go with my first play.
Austin and Vegas opened up at 99 as the o/u, and it's slipped to anywhere between 95 and 97 depending on where you look. Cris had 97 this morning, and that's the number I grabbed, though it's down to 96 at the current moment over there. For record-keeping sake on here, I'll go with the available number. 95s really don't suck either. Not the strongest play in the world, but certainly one worth making (probably would've been 3 units last year, but under the new system....)
Las Vegas/Austin under 96 (1 unit -110: BetCris)
Let's get 'em right off the bat Friday night!
--AFLGuru
Okay, to the rest of the card... 5 plays total this week, perhaps a 6th to come, but I tend to doubt it. 5 is right on the cusp of what I'd like to be playing on a weekly basis.
Nashville/New York over 92 (4 units -112: Pinnacle): This line opened up at 90, which I thought was a little ludicrous. Still some question over who Nashville's QB is going to be, but I don't think it's really going to matter. New York's defense is that bad. This is the real big play of the week. Some shops are as high as 94, so this is going nowhere but up.
Colorado (-4) vs. Chicago (2 units -105: Pinnacle): Line started at 6.5 and slowly made its way down as low as -2.5 -112 at Pinnacle, but has now risen due to Chicago announcing their starting QB was going to be Matt D'Orazio, part of the Columbus quarterbacking circus from last year that struggled to find jobs elsewhere even as backups.
Columbus (-7) vs. Grand Rapids (1 unit -103: Pinnacle): Grand Rapids has cut the guy who they thought was going to be their franchise QB in Raymond Philyaw (due to injury), and they're going with Jose Davis instead... that's right. THE Jose Davis. More importantly, we're one Jose Davis injury or errand pass from seeing my favorite fade in AFL history, Chad Salisbury enter the game for the Rampage.
Columbus/Grand Rapids under 101.5 (2 units -112: Pinnacle): Eat the little bit of chalk and get this number as opposed to 100s and 99.5s elsewhere until the line levels itself out. This one opened at 102 and has slowly dropped. It'll probably keep going to, I'd guess 98.5 or so at closing, still a solid under number when THE Jose Davis is involved.
Opened up shop 4-1 last season... Let's hope to duplicate the effort this season.
--AFLGuru
Alright, I've done some homework now. I'm ready to go with my first play.
Austin and Vegas opened up at 99 as the o/u, and it's slipped to anywhere between 95 and 97 depending on where you look. Cris had 97 this morning, and that's the number I grabbed, though it's down to 96 at the current moment over there. For record-keeping sake on here, I'll go with the available number. 95s really don't suck either. Not the strongest play in the world, but certainly one worth making (probably would've been 3 units last year, but under the new system....)
Las Vegas/Austin under 96 (1 unit -110: BetCris)
Let's get 'em right off the bat Friday night!
--AFLGuru
Okay, to the rest of the card... 5 plays total this week, perhaps a 6th to come, but I tend to doubt it. 5 is right on the cusp of what I'd like to be playing on a weekly basis.
Nashville/New York over 92 (4 units -112: Pinnacle): This line opened up at 90, which I thought was a little ludicrous. Still some question over who Nashville's QB is going to be, but I don't think it's really going to matter. New York's defense is that bad. This is the real big play of the week. Some shops are as high as 94, so this is going nowhere but up.
Colorado (-4) vs. Chicago (2 units -105: Pinnacle): Line started at 6.5 and slowly made its way down as low as -2.5 -112 at Pinnacle, but has now risen due to Chicago announcing their starting QB was going to be Matt D'Orazio, part of the Columbus quarterbacking circus from last year that struggled to find jobs elsewhere even as backups.
Columbus (-7) vs. Grand Rapids (1 unit -103: Pinnacle): Grand Rapids has cut the guy who they thought was going to be their franchise QB in Raymond Philyaw (due to injury), and they're going with Jose Davis instead... that's right. THE Jose Davis. More importantly, we're one Jose Davis injury or errand pass from seeing my favorite fade in AFL history, Chad Salisbury enter the game for the Rampage.
Columbus/Grand Rapids under 101.5 (2 units -112: Pinnacle): Eat the little bit of chalk and get this number as opposed to 100s and 99.5s elsewhere until the line levels itself out. This one opened at 102 and has slowly dropped. It'll probably keep going to, I'd guess 98.5 or so at closing, still a solid under number when THE Jose Davis is involved.
Opened up shop 4-1 last season... Let's hope to duplicate the effort this season.
--AFLGuru
