Patriots vs Broncos AFC Championship Picks and Discussion

[SBR Andy]

New England catches a huge break with Denver QB Bo Nix fracturing his ankle in OT of the Broncos win over Buffalo.

The question is how much is Nix worth to the spread? Oddsmakers suggest 6.5 points as the lookahead line for this matchup was Denver -1.5 last week and it is now Patriots -5 with Jarrett Stidham under center for the Broncos.

Pretty big unknown here but might go for a contrarian Over play if the total ticks down to 40.

How are you guys betting this game?

[SBR Andy]

Some early Broncos support on the NFL Picks page:

Denver +5.5 (-116)
"Yes, I know it's Jarrett Stidham, but Sean Payton will have his man ready to go for (or manage) this game. The Denver's top-rated defense will do enough to cover here." - Dustin Saracini

Denver +5.5 (-118)
"Drake Maye has yet to play clean football in the playoffs, and the Broncos' defense certainly has the playmakers to take advantage of that. Even with a backup quarterback, Denver covers this spread at home." - Liam Fox

[SBR Andy]

A couple more picks have hit the board:

New England -5.5 (-105)
"The Patriots' defense is markedly better than their 23rd-ranked DVOA suggests. It hasn't allowed more than 16 points in the previous four games, including conceding 19 in two playoff games." - Gary Pearson

Under 42.5 (-110)
"The fact that New England is facing a backup quarterback is likely to make it more conservative on offense without the need to put the ball in harm’s way as often. Even still, the Patriots can build off the confidence of holding Houston to season lows in yards per play (3.3) and rushing yards (48)." - Mike Spector

[Hawkeye94]

Going back to the well once again. Taking NE 1st half -3 (-110). No way Stidham knocks the rust off that fast. Denver offense will be conservative to start, to help their new QB get into the game. NE defense stacking the box to make Stidham beat them with his arm. I think NE handles this one going away.

[SBR Andy]

A few NE/DEN player prop picks from SBR analysts:

Drake Maye Under 19.5 Passing Completions (-111)
"Denver’s defense forced Josh Allen into season-highs in off-target attempts (nine) and off-target percentage (23%), so New England should lean on its running game more in this matchup." - Mike Spector

Drake Maye Under 226.5 Passing Yards (-115)
"These narratives have played out well for us this year, so let's not stray too far from what's worked. Make no mistake, this Denver defense is loaded, and is the only chance the Broncos have at moving on to the Super Bowl with Bo Nix sidelined. The Broncos own the fourth-best scoring defense in the NFL, and if the Patriots are ahead come late in the second half, expect a steady dose of Rhamondre Stevenson." - Dustin Saracini

Courtland Sutton Score a Touchdown (Yes: +270)
"Backup quarterbacks rely on their No. 1 weapon when getting thrust into the spotlight. Enter Sutton, who was targeted nine times last week. Yes, Bo Nix was at the helm, but head coach Sean Payton seems to have a ton of confidence in Jarrett Stidham, and New England's red-zone defense leaves a lot to be desired." - Dustin Saracini