Texans vs Patriots AFC Divisional Round Picks and Discussion

[SBR Andy]

Two of the hottest teams in the league square off in the AFC divisional round when the Patriots (-3) host the Texans on Sunday.

Both made quick work of their wild card opponents, allowing a combined 9 points between them.

Which young QB can make enough plays to lift their team to victory?

I lean under 41 points. Houston's final tally of 30 against the Steelers is a little misleading as their offense did not look great for most of the game outside of Woody Marks and they had 2 defensive scores.

How are you guys betting this game?

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Mike Spector thinks the Texans are a live dog on the NFL Picks page:

Houston Moneyline (+138)
"Houston has won nine games in a row on the strength of a defense that ranks second in Defensive Efficiency. It also dominated a Steelers offensive line that had ranked third in Pass Block Win Rate by sacking Aaron Rodgers four times and hitting him on another 12 dropbacks."

C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+102)
"Stroud will potentially be without Nico Collins (concussion), which does not bode well considering he had an 81.7 Total QBR when targeting Collins in the regular season, and a 57.9 QBR when targeting all his other wideouts."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Gary Pearson likes the Patriots to advance:

New England -2.5 (-120)
"That Texans defense is a formidable bunch. However, it has faced only two top-10 offenses (via DVOA) in the previous 11 games, and it beat up on an out-of-sorts, bang-average Steelers offense in the wild-card game. C.J. Stroud, who committed three turnovers, looked panicked for most of the game, and his offense disjointed. While it's early, I doubt Nico Collins will be ready to go after suffering what appeared to be a significant injury."