TNF Week 7: Steelers vs Bengals Predictions

SBR Andy · 10-14-25, 01:19 PM

SBR's Gary Pearson breaks down the action in his early Steelers vs Bengals prediction:

Bengals +5.5 (-104 FanDuel)

"I'm wholly uncomfortable backing the Steelers as a 5.5-point road betting favorite. It's uncharted territory for Mike Tomlin's team since the start of last season, which hasn't been a favorite of more than 3.5 points on the road in five years.

They're laying 5.5 points on the road due to an impressive 4-1 record and the Bengals' complete ineptitude throughout most of the season.

I'm not intimating that quarterback Joe Flacco is the Bengals' savior. That would be like saying Aaron Rodgers will win MVP. However, Flacco can at least feed his superstar receivers, something Jake Browning failed miserably at.

Flacco had just four days to prepare for an away game in a hostile environment with his new employer against a Green Bay Packers team that is among the Super Bowl odds contenders.

After the 40-year-old settled in, at least somewhat, he and his Bengals outscored the Packers 18-17 in the second half. Yes, there were extenuating circumstances, but I saw enough to back the wily veteran to keep things close against a Steelers team that rarely wins comfortably.

The Steelers' first comfortable victory of the season came against the lowly Cleveland Browns on Sunday, whose offense still hasn't scored more than 17 points.

I know what you're thinking: Flacco was at the helm in four of the Browns' six anemic offensive outputs.

While that's a valid point, Flacco didn't have Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins at his disposal."

SBR Andy · 10-16-25, 08:37 AM

SBR's Dustin Saracini shares his best Steelers vs Bengals player prop bets for Thursday night:

Aaron Rodgers Over 216.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

"Aaron Rodgers eclipsed this total quite easily last week versus the Cleveland Browns - who own one of the best defenses in football - and now faces a secondary giving up 258 passing yards per game, the second-highest average in the league. That bodes well for us and for Rodgers, who has seemingly found a groove after throwing for 235 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6."

DK Metcalf Over 61.5 receiving yards (-118 via BetMGM)

"This number has been bet up to 61.5 after initially being posted at 58.5 - that should tell you everything you need to know. The money is coming in on this Over, and I'd still play it up to 65.5 with DK Metcalf building up some dangerous chemistry with Rodgers over the last few weeks. After catching all five of his targets for 126 yards in Week 5, Metcalf stayed hot a week later, hauling in four catches on nine targets for 94 yards."

Chase Brown anytime touchdown (+115 via bet365)

"It’s clear the Chase Brown experiment hasn’t gone as planned this season. While part of the blame falls on him, Joe Burrow’s injury also shifted the Bengals’ offensive outlook - yet Brown continues to handle the majority of the touches out of the backfield. Mainly in catch-up mode virtually every week, Brown is still averaging close to 10 carries and five catches per game, giving us ample amount of volume for him to score.

He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1, but that’s exactly why this price is so appealing for Cincinnati’s lead back. It’s rare to see odds like this for an RB1, making it a prime opportunity to capitalize on Thursday Night Football."

SBR Andy · 10-16-25, 11:56 AM

TNF anytime touchdown scorer picks from SBR's Esten McLaren:

DK Metcalf, WR, Steelers (+155 via DraftKings)

"These +155 odds for Metcalf to score in a fifth straight game are a little baffling. He's played at least 79% of the offensive snaps in each outing, and the wideout has been targeted five-plus times in all but one game. He's logged 19 receptions for 356 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 11.5 yards per target and registering a 61.3% catch rate. He leads the Steelers with three red-zone targets, and Metcalf has caught each one (two touchdowns).

The Bengals allow opposing receivers to catch 65.2% of their targets at an average of 8.36 yards, with four touchdowns allowed to the position. My most significant worry in backing Metcalf is the team turning to the ground game too quickly as a 5.5-point betting favorite on the road. But with an Over/Under of 44.5, he should be a key piece of building an early lead."

Jonnu Smith, TE, Steelers (+330 via FanDuel)

"Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has erased Pat Freiermuth from the game plan.

Veteran Jonnu Smith - brought in this offseason via trade - played 69% of the snaps last week, and he's been targeted at least three times in every game, including catching three of four targets last week. His only touchdown of the season came on Smith's lone red-zone target. He's dominating playing time - and work - among Pittsburgh tight ends.

The Bengals have allowed tight ends to score five touchdowns this season, even while holding the position to a sub-70% catch rate."

Samaje Perine, RB, Bengals (+600 via DraftKings)

"We're shooting high with our final anytime touchdown scorer prediction for Thursday Night Football.

The Bengals' defense has been surprisingly strong against running backs on the ground, but the unit allows the position to average 8.42 yards per target on an 87.9% catch rate. While starter Chase Brown leads the team with 24 targets (and 20 receptions) through six games, Perine has logged six catches on his eight targets, including one of each in the red zone."

stevenash · 10-16-25, 01:07 PM

Slightly off topic.

DK has an interesting challenge for DFS players, like me.

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THURSDAY NIGHT TOUCHDOWN THRONE

Claim two tokens and use them when entering NFL Daily Fantasy Showdown Captain Mode contests of $3 or more, locking on 10/16. If the lineups have 5+ receiving or rushing touchdowns, earn a share of $50,000 DK Dollars.

Promo Period: Between 10/14/2025 at 12:00 PM ET and 10/16/2025 at 8:15 PM ET. Requirement: Opt in and claim two (2) TD Throne Tokens. Submit lineups into NFL Daily Fantasy Showdown Captain Mode contests of $3 or more, locking on 10/16, using your tokens. Reward: A share of the $50,000 prize pool in DK Dollars. Limit one (1) redemption per customer.

QUALIFYING CONTEST

To qualify for this Promotion, customers must place entries into NFL Daily Fantasy Showdown Captain Mode contests of $3 or more locking on 10/16 (“Qualifying Contests”) using a Token.

TOKEN LIMITATIONS

Tokens valid only on Qualifying Contests. Tokens are single-use and have no cash value. Tokens must be applied BEFORE placing entry to receive a reward. Tokens may not be combined with other bonus rewards and may not be eligible for use on all promotions and/or DFS contests. Head-to-Head contests are excluded. Tokens expire on 10/16/2025 at 8:15 PM ET.

BONUS REWARD REDEMPTION

Qualified customers who enter a Qualifying Contest with their Token will receive an equal share of a $50,000 in DK Dollars (“Bonus Prize Pool”) if their Qualifying Contest lineup has five (5) or more receiving or rushing touchdowns. Multiple entries may be made into a Qualifying Contest, but only the entries placed with the Tokens will be eligible for a reward. In other words, if a customer has two lineups in a Qualifying Contest and both lineups score five (5) or more receiving or rushing touchdowns, only the lineup placed with the Token will qualify for the share of the Bonus Prize Pool.

Bonus Prize Pool issued in DK Dollars. For example, if 10,000 customers entered the Qualifying Contest and each of their lineups had five (5) or more receiving or rushing touchdowns, each of those 10,000 customers would receive $5 in DK Dollars (50,000/10,000). DK Dollar reward will be rounded to the nearest whole number. DK Dollars will be issued within 72 business hours. Maximum $50,000 in DK Dollars rewarded for each Prize Pool. If only one customer’s lineup has five (5) or more receiving or rushing touchdowns, that customer will receive the entire Bonus Prize Pool.

In addition, the entries into each Qualifying Contest will receive prizes according to the standard rules and scoring for the Qualifying Contest.

SBR Andy · 10-16-25, 02:10 PM

Updated Steelers-Bengals betting insights at BetMGM:

Most bet props ️
1. Darnell Washington (PIT) Over 22.5 Receiving yards
2. Chase Brown (CIN) Under 13.5 Rushing attempts
3. Noah Fant (CIN) Over 27.5 Receiving yards
4. DK Metcalf (PIT) Over 64.5 Receiving yards
5. Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) Over 74.5 Receiving yards

Most bet players to score anytime TD ️
1. DK Metcalf +145
2. Darnell Washington +300
3. Ja'Marr Chase +140
4. Joe Flacco +2800
5. Chase Brown +115

Most bet players to score 1st TD ️
1. Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) +1000
2. DK Metcalf (PIT) +750
3. Ja'Marr Chase (Cin) +800
4. Jaylen Warren (Pit) +500
5. Chase Brown (Cin) +650