MNF: Vikings vs Bears Predictions

SBR Andy · 09-08-25, 10:27 AM

SBR's Mike Spector breaks down the matchup in his Vikings vs Bears prediction:

Bears ML (+102 DraftKings)

"As excited as I am to see what new Bears head coach Ben Johnson can do with Caleb Williams and the plethora of talent he has at the skill positions, I usually preach patience and not to overreact, as his offensive principles will take time to sink in.

But with Minnesota breaking in a quarterback who missed the entire regular season with an injury last year, that tips the scales to Chicago’s moneyline as my best Vikings vs. Bears prediction.

Williams’ increased success in year two starts with an improved offensive line. He was sacked 68 times last season, tied for the third-most in NFL history. To address that, the team traded for guards Joe Thuney (17 starts last year) and Jonah Jackson (four starts), and added center Drew Dalman (nine starts).

Johnson’s influence should also make a world of difference in Williams’ progression. In his time as Lions offensive coordinator, Detroit had a top-five offense in all three seasons.

Furthermore, in terms of yards per play under Johnson, the Lions ranked third overall, third on plays with motion at the snap, and third on play action. He brings his expertise to a talented Bears roster that ranked 22nd or worse in all of those metrics last year."

Caleb Williams Over 0.5 interceptions (-115 FanDuel)

"Last season, Minnesota had 33 takeaways (tied for the most) and 49 sacks (tied for fourth).

Considering the Bears' offense may struggle against a top-five scoring defense from last year, especially with the team learning a completely new system, Caleb Williams to throw an interception offers excellent value as my top Vikings vs. Bears player prop bet.

Williams needs to work on a quicker release, as his 2.92 seconds on his average time to throw ranked 26th. He did rank third in interception percentage, but was also off target on 21% of his passes (31st) and was the league’s worst quarterback in QBR on throws of 20-plus yards and third-down QBR."

SBR Andy · 09-08-25, 10:39 AM

DraftKings Monday Night Football prop betting insights:

SBR Andy · 09-08-25, 11:23 AM

A lot of love for the Under from SBR's football analysts on the SBR NFL Picks page:

Under 43 (-116)

"Sure both of the offenses are revamped heading into Monday Night Football, but will they be able to go over this number against two of the more elite defenses in the NFL last season? The Vikings were a top-five scoring defense last year, and the Bears only upgraded their 14th-ranked unit from a season ago. With J.J. McCarthy making his debut and Caleb Williams still ironing out some kinks in Week 1, I expect this to go Under the total." - Dustin Saracini

Under 43.5 (-110)

"McCarthy makes his regular-season debut on the road in a hostile environment against a Bears defense that last season received the 10th-best coverage rating, according to PFF. The Bears' offense should be immeasurably superior to last year's unit, should also take time to optimize." - Gary Pearson

Under 43.5 (-118)

"Both teams boast talented play-callers, but this could be a sloppy Monday night opener for the offenses.

Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is making his first-career start on the road in prime time. Meanwhile, Bears QB Caleb Williams had a shaky rookie season in 2024 and faces one of the league's top defenses from a year ago. Minnesota led the league in takeaways and finished fifth in sacks." - Liam Fox

SBR Andy · 09-08-25, 01:24 PM

Looking to build your Same Game Parlay? SBR's Phillip Wood has 3 player prop bets posted for MNF:

Aaron Jones Sr. anytime TD scorer (+155 via FanDuel)

"Some think Jordan Mason will take over for Aaron Jones as the season wears on, but I have zero concern over Jones’ role tonight. Last season, he put together two great games against the Bears, rushing for 106 yards in the first contest and 86 in the second. He scored a touchdown in both meetings.

Jones finished with just seven touchdowns last season, but since he never scored more than a single touchdown in a game, he ended up finding the end zone in 41% of his games. The price of +155 at FanDuel implies that Jones has a 39.22% chance of scoring in this game, which seems very low considering his success last year."

Caleb Williams Over 218.5 passing yards (-111 via DraftKings)

"Caleb Williams threw for fewer than 200 yards in four of his final five games last season. One of those performances came against the Vikings. And yet, Williams threw for 340 yards against the same defense in Week 12.

Though Williams’ rookie year was far from great, he threw for more than 218.5 passing yards seven times. Now, he gets to start his second season against a defense that allowed over 240 passing yards per game in 2024-25. Even if there isn’t a lot of growth from Williams in his second season, this is a great matchup, and sports betting sites are undervaluing him."

DJ Moore Over 5.5 receptions (+115 via BetMGM) 

"Last season, DJ Moore totaled 15 catches against the Vikings, with at least seven in both contests. He also caught at least six passes in eight consecutive games to end the year.

Moore’s yardage total is set between just 55.5 and 58.5, but taking him to rack up receptions is the right play. Williams finished 33rd in yards per attempt last season. That means Moore could end up with a lot of catches and few yards. This happened last season when he managed fewer than 55 yards in three of his final five games despite recording 20 catches across those three contests."

SBR Andy · 09-08-25, 02:10 PM

Monday Night Football anytime touchdown scorer picks from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Aaron Jones Sr. (+175 DraftKings)

"The Vikings are a 1.5-point road betting favorite by the Monday Night Football odds, so that has me targeting running back Aaron Jones Sr., with +175 odds to find the end zone as a five-star anytime touchdown scorer prediction.

Jones scored seven total touchdowns last season, his first with the Vikings, with five coming on the ground. I'm expecting him to see a hefty usage rate tonight in J.J. McCarthy's first regular-season start for the Vikes."

Rome Odunze (+215 DraftKings)

"Rome Odunze caught just 54 of 101 targets for 734 yards and three scores in what was the rookie season for both him and QB Caleb Williams. The Bears hired offensive guru Ben Johnson as their new head coach, and I see that benefiting the Wiliams-Odunze connection more than anyone else on the roster, at least early.

The Vikings' 2,972 yards allowed to wide receivers last season was the second-most in the league, and they surrendered 18 scores to the position."

Jalen Nailor (+400 bet365)

"Jalen Nailor will be assuming a larger role early in the season while Jordan Addison serves a suspension. Nailor will lineup opposite Jefferson, with veteran Adam Thielen working out of the slot.

Nailor scored six touchdowns on just 28 receptions last season. While that was with Sam Darnold as the Vikings' starting QB, it should have earned him trust with the coaching staff coming into his first game alongside McCarthy.

I like his 9.9 yards per target rate from last season against a Bears defense that allowed 8.93 yards per target (third-worst in the NFL)."

Who are you backing to find the end zone tonight?

SBR Andy · 09-08-25, 02:33 PM

Monday Night Football betting insights at BetMGM:

Most bet player props️
1. Caleb Williams 25+ rushing yards -110
2. Olamide Zaccheaus over 18.5 receiving yards -130
3. Colston Loveland over 2.5 receptions -165
4. J.J. McCarthy over 16.5 rushing yards -115
5. Rome Odunze over 47.5 receiving yards -115

Most bet anytime touchdown scorer️
1. Justin Jefferson +125
2. D'Andre Swift +155
3. Aaron Jones +155
4. Colston Loveland +360
5. Caleb Williams +500

Most bet first touchdown scorer️
1. Justin Jefferson +600
2. Aaron Jones +750
3. D'Andre Swift +750
4. D.J. Moore +1000
5. T.J. Hockenson +1200