NFL Week 1 player prop bets thread

SBR Andy · 09-04-25, 10:35 AM

SBR's Mike Spector shares his best NFL player props bets for Week 1:

Justin Herbert Under 0.5 interceptions (-129 via DraftKings)

"Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh has a knack for getting the most out of his quarterbacks and helping with their efficiency by complementing their arms with an effective running game. That was especially true of how he handled Justin Herbert last year, as the signal caller is coming off one of the most efficient seasons of his career.

Herbert threw for 23 touchdowns and totaled just three interceptions. As a result, his 7.67 touchdown-to-interception ratio was the eighth-best all-time among quarterbacks who ended a season with at least 15 touchdown passes.

Herbert attempted 57 passes in two games against the Kansas City Chiefs last year without being intercepted once. That makes the 56.33% implied probability through DraftKings’ -129 odds a great value, especially since Herbert’s chances of going without an interception are as high as 60.32% through FanDuel’s -152 odds."

Aaron Rodgers longest pass completion Under 33.5 yards (-115 via BetMGM)

"Aaron Rodgers averaged career-lows of 6.7 yards per attempt and 5.8 yards per dropback as the Jets quarterback last year.

I expect Aaron Glenn to dial up blitzes early and often against Rodgers, as he ranked 28th or worse in CPOE, yards per attempt, and QBR against the blitz last season.

Since 2022, Rodgers’ QBR with two or more tight ends on the field ranks 15th, while his QBR with one or fewer tight ends in formation is 30th. Head coach Mike Tomlin would be wise to play to Rodgers’ strengths and use more heavy formations while not having him air it out downfield often."

Tee Higgins anytime TD scorer (+130 via Caesars)

"Plain and simple, the Cincinnati Bengals are a better and much more explosive team when Tee Higgins is on the field.

With a healthy Higgins last year, Cincinnati went 8-4 while averaging 28.8 points and 280 passing yards per game. Without Higgins, the Bengals lost four of five games and averaged just 25.4 points and 257 passing yards.

Higgins has touchdowns in four of eight career games against the Cleveland Browns, and that 50% success rate makes his 45.45% implied probability on the high end of the market to cash this wager reasonable."

Jahmyr Gibbs Under 96.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118 via FanDuel)

"The Green Bay Packers had a difficult time with the NFC’s elite teams last year, going 0-6 against the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings, while allowing those teams to average 28.7 points per game. Against all other teams, Green Bay was 11-1 while giving up an average of 15.7 points.

But the Packers always had a great game plan for Gibbs, holding him to 76 total yards or fewer in both regular-season meetings.

At first glance, this projected total looks too low for a player who averaged 116.9 rushing and receiving yards per game last year. But given Green Bay’s ability to keep him in check and add the fact that the Lions no longer have offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the Under makes for a great play."

Derrick Henry race to 20 rushing yards (+110 via DraftKings) 

"DraftKings offers a unique player prop where one can bet on the first player to record 20-plus rushing yards in a game.

This prop is heavily skewed in favor of whichever team receives the opening kickoff, as gaining 20 rushing yards from a player in one drive is feasible. But there is value at this number as Henry’s implied probability shoots to 57.45% to win the race to 40 yards through the -135 odds.

Henry ran for 283 yards in two meetings with the Buffalo Bills last season, including an impressive 87-yard touchdown scamper in the regular-season game. Thus, he is as likely as anyone to cash this wager for us with one big run."

ChristianBauer · 09-04-25, 10:52 AM

So far:

2 Player Parlay
A.J. Brown 69.5+ Rec Yds
Javonte Williams 34.5+ Rush Yds

SBR Andy · 09-07-25, 08:50 AM

Some Sunday NFL player prop bets from SBR's Isaiah Sirois:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt o30.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

"Although it’s unclear who offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will give the bulk of the carries to now that Brian Robinson Jr. is gone, it’s likely to be a healthy mix of Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez. JCM flashed home-run speed on a 27-yard breakaway touchdown run against the Bengals in Week 2 of the preseason. His burst score of 132.6 puts him in the 95th percentile. He now gets to play behind a Commanders offensive line that ranked an impressive second in run-block win rate a season ago and just added left tackle Laremy Tunsil."

TreVeyon Henderson o64.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-115)

"When the Patriots drafted TreVeyon Henderson out of Ohio State, they knew they were getting a world-class athlete, but they couldn’t have expected him to look this good already. Henderson was the story of training camp for the Patriots, and insiders are already projecting him to get the majority of the touches, which can come either via handoff or in the passing game."

Cam Ward u192.5 Passing Yards (-112)

"I hate to be the bearer of bad news for Tennessee Titans fans, but Cam Ward’s debut could be seriously ugly. He takes on a stingy Denver Broncos defense that boasts the league’s top cornerback, Patrick Surtain II. Alongside him, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has several talented weapons, including safety Brandon Jones, who posted the second-highest pass coverage grade at his position last year."