Early Thoughts on Week 14 NFL Lines

**Razz** · 12-06-05, 09:44 AM

I strongly disagree with the first two (haven't looked at the others yet), but my NFL has turned sour after a fast start, so they will probably win easily.

**begolf25** · 12-06-05, 09:57 AM

What are your thoughts on the first two Razz?

If Kansas City can do the same job against the run in Dallas like they did against the Broncos they will be in very good shape. By shutting down the run and getting to Bledsoe they will be able to force him into mistakes like he has been making all year. The Dallas offense he started to rival the Bears the last few weeks.

**Razz** · 12-06-05, 10:13 AM

Well, the preliminary thought process I had was that Kansas City has a history of outplaying their capabilities at home late in the season, and then hitting the road against another quality team and getting pasted. I am not a believer at all in the Kansas City defense, while I am in the Dallas defense. They have been dominant lately, including only giving up 14 (offensive) points to Denver in regulation - and completely neutralizing the Broncos running game, which would obviously be huge against the Chiefs, and 10 (offensive) points @ the Giants, both of whom possess offenses near the top of the league.
As you mentioned, Bledsoe has been making mistakes, but I just don't think the Chiefs defense is opportunistic enough to take advantage. If they are, they could win, but going against Kansas City on the road after a home divisional win is always a solid play.

First of all, this game is infinitely more important to the Jags than the Colts. The Colts have already announced that going undefeated is not a serious goal of theirs, while the Jags need to keep winning to make the playoffs. Frankly, the Jaguars defense is completely capable of shutting down Manning and Co., as they proved in the first meeting, a 10-3 loss. That was indoors, and on artificial turf, where the Colts weapons are magnified. On the grass, their speed and overall offense is less dynamic.
Many people thought Garrard for Leftwich would doom the Jags. However, Garrard is one of the better backups in the league, and has the ability to move the ball by air, or by running. The Jaguars have been saving Taylor for this game, and he will be back in full force. And, as I have mentioned before, the Colts defense is extremely overrated. They can't stop teams who run the ball right at them, and they have only played one balanced offense this season (which is why I think the Chargers score 40 on them next week). That was the Bengals, who scored 37. I'm not sure the Jags have the offensive playmakers to definitively win this game outright, but I think it is close all the way.

**mad** · 12-06-05, 10:16 AM

If you were going to take Indy, i suppose i would take them early. You know the public money will pound that line out to 8 (maybe more) by game time. Personally i like the Redskins over Arizona, particularly after the beating they gave the Rams. KC definitely a good chance to win outright, with points even better. I was looking at teasing this game out to +13. As for the Titans, i'm not sure.

Best of luck begolf25.

**mad** · 12-06-05, 10:40 AM

I see 5Dimes has Indy -8.5 at the moment.

**imgv94** · 12-06-05, 11:20 AM

Well about the KC v Dallas Game. Razz is right about KC not being a good bet
on the road after a div win. A Key Factor is How Dallas is a much better team
at home and Kansas City is not as good on the road. Also Kansas City hasn't played
that many games on turf in the last 3 years this year only one so far and it was to the Bills which they lost 3-14.
Dallas and Kansas City Matchup Pretty Well But KC is ranked 30th Against the Pass And Bledsoe has had big games in Dallas.So i think Dallas is a strong play.

**begolf25** · 12-06-05, 11:22 AM

Yeah, the Colts have moved to -8 on Bodog. I went ahead and got them at -7 this morning on Olympic by buying a 1/2 point at -110. If the line moves much higher, say to -10, would this be a good time to take Jacksonville also? I asked about the middle wager in the main forum because I am still learning that and not sure when the best time to take something like that is.

**Razz** · 12-06-05, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by begolf25

Yeah, the Colts have moved to -8 on Bodog. I went ahead and got them at -7 this morning on Olympic by buying a 1/2 point at -110. If the line moves much higher, say to -10, would this be a good time to take Jacksonville also? I asked about the middle wager in the main forum because I am still learning that and not sure when the best time to take something like that is.

Good job getting a favorable line. When middling, you normally want the game to cross key numbers (3, 4, 6, 7, for the most part). This is rare in the NFL, but more common in college.
The way I would have attempted a middle in this game would have to been to bet a much larger sum on the Colts than I intended to actually end up betting on them. (For example, if you wanted to place 2 units on them, you could bet 5 units at -7, and come back for 3 units with Jags +10 or whatever. Obviously, you only do this if you are very certain of the direction of the line movement. That is one benefit of this forum, and others around the web - I know raiders normally is pretty accurate of his predictions of line movement on his site - you can generally determine which way a line will move. Of course, you know the line is going to move with the Colts virtually every week.) Sorry to ramble.

**begolf25** · 12-06-05, 12:00 PM

Don't worry about rambling, Im trying to get as much input as I can and I appreciate it. I definately see why you would like the Jags this week but I found it hard not to get in on the Colts as only a TD favorite. The hook always scares me, thats why I bought the 1/2 point.