Razz's Weekend Plays, 12/3-12/4

[Razz]

Early big play for Saturday

10* Connecticut +15 vs. Louisville - First 10* play of the season. Rarely do I get a 15-point underdog that I expect to win the game outright. I will post a detailed analysis of this game later.

[aje]

Bet the house

[bigboydan]

I will post a detailed analysis of this game later.

looking forward to reading them razz. i'm curious to see what you came up on uconn in this game.

[Razz]

Summary of Plays Thus far

Thursday 12/1

2* Akron vs. Northern Illinois Over 51.5

Saturday 12/3

10* Connecticut +15 vs. Louisville
4* Virginia Tech -13.5 vs. Florida St. (N)

I will be adding Georgia and Tulsa, and perhaps someone else (would likely be Fresno, USC, or Colorado).

[Razz]

10* selection and writeup

10* Connecticut +15 vs. Louisville
This is my biggest play of the year, and I recommend a small play on the moneyline as well. I have four sub-headings for why I like this play so much, and a final conclusion.

When Louisville has the ball:
Louisville’s star quarterback Brian Brohm is out with a torn ACL. Head coach Bobby Petrino said he has “tremendous confidence in Hunter Cantwell’s ability to lead this team as we prepare for the Connecticut game.” Petrino claims he has no intention of changing the offense for this week’s game, but that is simply not practical. He will have to at the very least limit his playbook, and will have to run the ball a little more than normal.
UCONN has loaded the box to stop the running game all season, and will certainly not change that strategy against Louisville, especially since Brohm will not be available. They held a South Florida team that was ranked 12th in rushing offense to a season-low 83 yards rushing last week. This unit is especially helped by the return of team leader Taurien Sowell.
The reason the Huskies are able to concentrate so heavily on the run game is that they have a very talented secondary. UCONN is 2nd in the nation in passing defense (147.2 ypg), 4th in passing efficiency defense (93.97 rating), and sixth in total defense (281 ypg).
Connecticut is extremely adept at preventing long drives. They lead the nation in third-down conversion defense, at 23%. They are also 6th in the nation at stopping 4th down attempts, as only 4 of 17 tries by Huskies opponents have been successful.
UCONN posted a home shutout streak of 233:27, including 170:36 to start this season, that was snapped in garbage time by Syracuse.

When Connecticut has the ball:
Pretty simply, the Huskies will be able to run the ball. Coming into the season, they knew they had two fabulous running backs in Terry Caulley and Cornell Brockington. Both these players surpassed 2,000 career rushing yards this season, and provide multiple looks for defenses. Lou Allen also has proven to be a dependable back when given the opportunity.
The return of UCONN QB Matt Bonislawksi has opened up the Huskies running game, as teams can no longer solely key on the run. Bonislawski has several talented receivers to choose from, a trademark of any team coached by Dan Edsell.
Louisville has played three conference games away from home. They gave up 251 rushing yards at South Florida, 281 at West Virginia, and 149 to a terribly inept Cincinnati rushing attack (Cincy rushed for -23 yards against Rutgers last week).
The Husky offensive line should be able to neutralize Louisville’s pass rush, as they are one of the better units in the nation. Once Connecticut gets a running game going, DE Dumervil will not be able to tee off on the quarterback like he has been able to so often this season.
Since the return of Larry Taylor, Connecticut’s special teams have regained their big-play potential, as they proved with the KO return for touchdown last week.

Connecticut is a strong technical play:
The Rentschler Field dynamic: The last 10 games at UCONN’s home field have been sold out, and Connecticut’s fans have been rewarded. The Huskies are 15-3 all-time at Rentschler Field, including 4-1 this season. They have covered all four lined home games this season. For the reputation Louisville has, they are not the same team away from home, as they are only 2-2 SU, and 1-3 ATS on the road this year. The home team has been dominant against the spread in both UCONN (7-2) and Louisville (8-2) games this season.
UCONN is 9-4 ATS recently as a double-digit underdog.

Connecticut will be the more motivated team:
Louisville has already accepted their invitation to the Gator Bowl, and that makes this game less important to them. No one on the Lousville roster has ever played an outdoor game above the Mason-Dixon line. The long-term forecast calls for a high of 39 degrees, and a low of 23 degrees, potentially around game time. The Cardinals will be ready to leave the cold climate as soon as they are able to.
Meanwhile, Connecticut will not be able to be lax in their preparation for this game. Because of the mid-season turmoil, the Huskies need this win just to become bowl eligible. Randy Edsell considers a bowl game a must for his program, as they will be able to take advantage of the extra preparatory time, and the national exposure. It is also Senior Day, and most of these seniors’ final game if they do not win.

Louisville hasn’t played a road game since October 22nd, and that one was at nearby Cincinnati, their lone road cover of the season. This trip will be something they are unprepared for, especially since they have no extra motivation.
One of the benefits of Connecticut’s two lopsided early wins was the chance to give some backup players a chance to get some experience. While UCONN struggled during the middle of this season because of a rash of injuries, their players have been coming back slowly and steadily, and this is now a deeper team, and an undervalued one, because of their struggles. I see Randy Edsell, the best coach you've never heard of, having his team ready to pull off the upset.
Connecticut 27, Louisville 20

[imgv94]

Wow I Thank You For Sharing Your Knowledge With Us!! I Am
Impressed And Convinced!! Razz Are U An Attorney?. I Will
Be Riding With You On This One! This Was The Best Post I Have
Ever Read. Thank You For The Time And Effort You Put Into
This Post I Have A Really Good Feeling About This Game!!!!
Uconn Looks Like A Winner!!!

[Razz]

A Final Summary of all Weekend Plays

Five straight winning weeks in college football (record is still misleading because of the hideous record posted while forming consensus plays with another capper. My plays alone are now up 35.7*), while the NFL sides have turned sour for me the last couple weeks, with the recent amazing number of favorites covering. NFL totals are still doing very well.

NCAA Football Overall (112-107-1, -55.35*)

Thursday 12/1

NCAAF Totals (24-24-0, -9.10*)
2* Akron vs. Northern Illinois (N) Over 51.5


Saturday 12/3

NCAAF Sides (88-83-1, -46.25*)
10* Connecticut +15 vs. Louisville
4* Virginia Tech -13.5 vs. Florida St. (N)
4* Tulsa +1 vs. Central Florida (N)
3* Georgia +1.5 vs. LSU (N)


Sunday 12/4

NFL Overall (67-55-2, +27.15*)
NFL Sides (41-40-2, +3.05*)

4* Dolphins -4 vs. Bills
3* Chiefs +1 vs. Broncos
3* Falcons +3 @ Panthers
2* 49ers +3 vs. Cardinals
2* Redskins -3 @ Rams
2* Packers +7 @ Bears

NFL Totals (26-15-1, +24.10*)

2* Raiders @ Chargers Over 49.5
2* Jaguars @ Browns Under 33.5
2* Vikings @ Lions Under 37.5
2* Bills @ Dolphins Over 34.5
2* Cardinals @ 49ers Over 44.5

[aje]

Razz, Bones will most likely be out for Connecticut. Although they been running out 3 QB's since the Syracuse game. So they should be fine. Also tried to check some info on Cantwell at Rivals. He's a walk on and from what I can tell nobody offer. They had listed as a 2 star prospect. There were a few teams interested ,but he didn't sign anywhere. I did see that he had some rather impressive #'s in high school. Anyways Connecticut is a solid play here.

[Razz]

Bonislawski is hurt? I just checked three different places and can't find that anywhere.

[aje]

http://www.courant.com/sports/college/football/hc-ucfoot1128.artnov28,0,4176217.story?coll=hc-headlines-sports

Still should be a solid play.

[Razz]

I can live with 25% that he will play. Through years of deciphering coachspeak (Not famaliar with Edsell's particular accuracy, per se), I know that means 50%.

My comments if Bones is unable to go - Very little change in my opinion on the strength of the play, since Hernandez is healthy. I feel more comfortable with him than Brown, though both faced the better defenses Connecticut has played in their three starts. This is another situation where UCONN's early injury problems come back to help us here, as normally these young backups would not have the experience they have gained. I would have taken UCONN +15 with Brohm and Bones playing, and would have been happy with the tradeoff of both quarterbacks being unable to go, especially since the Huskies are running the ball on 62% of their offensive plays. The biggest change this provides is that I would offer a strong opinion towards the under.

Thanks for keeping me updated aje. I trust you are from the Connecticut area? Please let me know if you hear anything else regarding Bones's status (Though it really won't effect me; I've already played the game)

[Razz]

Also tried to check some info on Cantwell at Rivals. He's a walk on and from what I can tell nobody offer. They had listed as a 2 star prospect. There were a few teams interested ,but he didn't sign anywhere. I did see that he had some rather impressive #'s in high school.

I saw those numbers too, but they were at the 3A level in Kentucky, which doesn't automatically translate to college success.

[imgv94]

I HOPE YOUR RIGHT ABOUT UCONN THIS SATURDAY I ALREADY HAVE 3 PARLAY'S
ENDING TO THEM CHECK IT OUT--->

Kent St 77 vs Youngstown St 69 Kent St 1.18 (W)
Wright St 46 vs Miami Ohio 54 Miami Ohio 1.14 (W)
N Texas 67 vs Arizona St_ 83 Arizona St_ 1.11 (W)
San Jose St 52 vs California 70 California 1.12 (W)
Tulane 61 vs Butler (Write In Game) 82 Butler 1.11 (W)
Louisville vs Connecticut (ESPN) Connecticut +15
11/30 12:38 pm -$ 20.00 Placed Parlay to win $ 50.14


Clippers 105 vs Cavaliers 112 Clippers +8.5 (W)
Louisville vs Connecticut (ESPN) Connecticut +15
11/30 12:32 pm -$ 30.00 Placed Parlay to win $ 70.93


T-Blazers 89 vs Wizards 96 Wizards 1.17 (W)
Louisville vs Connecticut (ESPN) Connecticut +15
11/30 12:31 pm -$ 80.00 Placed Parlay to win $ 90.82

[bigpig19]

Stoops like the play on UCONN. To go along with all of you other technical angles of the game, Louisville is a whipping rag away from home. Good luck bud.

[BuddyBear]

I don't know Razz...you are a great capper and have established yourself very well despite the slow start but I can't justify betting on the CONN/Louisville game this weekend. I read one of Bob Mcune's book on handcapping and one thing he told me when selecting a game to bet on is that if there are major injuries then just avoid it.

With Bhrom out and Louisville having already accepted a bowl bid who knows what team will show up...I listened to nearly the entire S.Florida/Conn game on the radio last Saturday and I am not sure how Conn won much less covered. The whole second half was played in Conn territory and the USF coach made several bad decisions.

Additionally, when your star QB goes out you expect a massive line shift...but Lousiville went from -17 to -15...that tells me something. I have a felling they are just going to run the ball with Michael Bush (?)...their defense is solid enough to hold Conn's meager offense. Conn got their upset last week I don't see it happening here....although at +555 a half unit is tempting.

I am on LSU but that's it so far...just seems like there are no good NCAAF games this weekend so good luck Razz and I hope you come through but thought I'd add my two cents in as well.

[aje]

Additionally, when your star QB goes out you expect a massive line shift...but Lousiville went from -17 to -15...that tells me something.

covers.com/sports/common/lineHistory.aspx?eventId=21466&sport=ncf

BetCris had it open @ 20

[imgv94]

Hey,razz still a 10 star play bud?? are you still as confident as
you were earlier this week? I'm riding with you on this one.

[Funnyguy25]

I TOOK UR ADVICDE AS WELL ON UCONN...
Iona messed me up last night so Im hoping UConn will provide a good rebound

[Razz]

Hey,razz still a 10 star play bud?? are you still as confident as
you were earlier this week? I'm riding with you on this one.

Imgv, I still feel strongly about this play, and feel the straight-up winner will be decided in the closing minutes.
Here's the story on my 10* plays. I always get cold feet leading up to the game, which is why I play the game as soon as possible, unless for some reason I think the line movement may help me out, which has never been the case.
In college this year, I only had one play which I seriously considered being a 10*, and that was Michigan -2.5 vs. Penn St. Luckily, I chose not to take the 10* route (though it was still a big play of mine), because they blew a comfortable lead and had to score on the final play to win by two (NCAA needs to change to NFL rules - kick the XP for a cover).
In the NFL, I also have only had one game which I considered making a 10*. That was the 0-2 Chargers in Week 3 -5.5 vs. the 2-0 Giants. I still made it a big play, but should have gone ahead and made it a 10*.

FG25 - I personally had a rough night last night as well, with Iona missing by 1 (garbage-time 3 by Fordham) and the Spurs missing by .5 (horrendous officiating down the stretch). But at least the college football weekend got off to a good start with a 2* total winner.

[officer601]

where is bigpig19

bigpig19where is your plays?

[Razz]

bigpig19where is your plays?

This is a good question. I know he has been on fire. He told me he liked Fresno tonight, but other than that, I really can't help you.

[begolf25]

Boy, this sure is a hard game to watch through 3 quarters no matter what side your on.

[imgv94]

Razz Whats up with UCONN fumbling so much?? I hope we can score
this is the most boring i have ever watched!! but i got alot on UCONN
so i have to watch. good luck bud!! razz you deserve a break i am here
to help you!!

[Razz]

Well, everything went wrong for three quarters, but that overturned TD on the replay (an absolutely horrific call, but I'll take it) might be the spark we needed.

[pats3peat]

good luck on tomorrows nfl plays razz

[imgv94]

Razz 30-20 3:56 4th qtr go UCONN!!!!

[imgv94]

You did it bud!!! UCONN should of won that game outright
GOOD PICK razz!! thanks bro. i had another amazing day myself.
but hey razz you are cool with me man!!! awesome!!

[Senator7]

Great play, Razz! Wasn't going to play it originally, but as a fellow Yankee fan, I trusted you!

[imgv94]

Great play, Razz! Wasn't going to play it originally, but as a fellow Yankee fan, I trusted you!

Now do the right thing and post something nice on
my thread!! thank you!! razz yr the man!!

[Illusion]

Excellent pick Razz, congrats.

[Razz]

Well, thanks guys, but I'm not pleased with the pick. The result yes, but the game was really difficult to watch, and I apologize to anyone who took the game and pulled out their hair watching UCONN fumble four times. They always say the hardest thing to handicap in a football game is fumbles. But, we snuck in by five, and I certainly won't be complaining about that.

On a side note, I really feel that the game goes more according to plan if they don't muff that punt in the second quarter with the game tied at 7. UCONN had all the momentum, and that Louisville 12-yard TD drive just killed it. You could see they were in a daze for awhile after that.

One more thing - I already respected Bobby Petrino, but the fact that he had his team playing so well in an irrelevant game against a team with everything at stake - I just can't say enough about that.

[begolf25]

Hey Razz,

I know you and everyone else almost crapped themselves when Louisville picked up the fumble when UCONN was in the red zone with about 1:30 to play. Thank goodness it was a 300 lb. lineman and not a D-back. that picked it up At that point that was the only thing that could screw up the cover and UCONN tried to make it happen. Your right though, that TD pass they overturned was horrible but sometimes thats what it takes. Nice play.

[bigpig19]

Bigpig19 is here I didnt really have any plays this weekend. I won a little bit of money but me and my consensus partner didnt feel real strong I am glad to see you doing well in college foots razz you finally took my advice and quit putting out so many damn plays and you have reaped many benefits. Ill be back with some bowl picks with NFL every week and try to break into the 100*+ range for the year. Update: No plays the last two weeks, and up a total of 90.3* in total football and up 81.8* including the first week when i lost 9.5* without a consensus partner

[Razz]

4* Eagles +3.5 -105 vs. Seahawks

[imgv94]

4* Eagles +3.5 -105 vs. Seahawks

Razz I love you bro!! but i dont like the Eagles in this one.
But i know alot of people that do?? I respect your
picks alot and really wish you didn't like the eagles in
this one. I'm going to post a thread with my reasons.
well thanks again for UCONN bud!! i made out very good.
And i completely agree with you about the muff punt
killing UConn's momentum I was feeling very good about
UCONN until that play. I didn't feel comfortable until
i saw louisville kneel down to end the game after that!!!