Razz's Weekend Plays, 11/12-11/13

**Razz** · 11-08-05, 09:09 PM

College Plays

NCAA Football Overall (91-94-0, -76.15*)
NCAAF Sides (68-70, -63.35*)

Thursday 11/10

4* Fresno St. -7 vs. Boise St.

Saturday 11/12

5* Minnesota -5 vs. Michigan St.
4* Oregon St. -4 vs. Stanford
3* Oklahoma -13 vs. Texas A&M
3* Auburn +3 @ Georgia
2* Clemson +1.5 vs. Florida St.
2* Iowa St. +2.5 vs. Colorado
2* Alabama +3 vs. LSU
2* Iowa +3 @ Wisconsin
1* Georgia Tech +5.5 @ Virginia
1* Pittsburgh -12 vs. Connecticut

In-State Opinions (7-2-2), not including games that I have a rated play on:
Central Florida +8 @ UAB
Arkansas St. -3 vs. Troy

**Razz** · 11-08-05, 09:13 PM

Nfl

NFL Overall (54-39-2, +45.20*)
NFL Sides (34-27-1, +27.30*)

Sunday 11/13

3* Rams +7 @ Seahawks
3* Bills -2 vs. Chiefs
2* Packers +9 -105 @ Falcons
2* Raiders +3 -115 vs. Broncos

Monday 11/14

5* Eagles -2.5 -115 vs. Cowboys

NFL Totals (20-12-1, +17.90*)

3* Vikings @ Giants Over 44.5
3* Redskins @ Buccaneers Under 33
2* Patriots @ Dolphins Under 40.5

**Razz** · 11-08-05, 09:16 PM

Writeups will be posted later. I'll try to answer any questions tomorrow.

**slacker00** · 11-09-05, 12:20 AM

Razz, loving the Eagles on MNF, eh?

I was thinking the complete opposite. I know they're at home, and they'll be motivated to put this Owens thing behind them, but I still have too many questions about them. I'm playing the Cowboys only because they are looking like the more stable team. They'll be getting healthier (Julius Jones) after the bye week. They blew the Eagles out the first time, maybe it wasn't an absolute fluke.

**Shawn01** · 11-09-05, 07:37 AM

I see the Dolphins are home dogs two weeks in a row. Also, apparently bettors are favoring underdog Kansas City as the line at VIP is K.C. +3 (-130) vs. Buffalo -3 (110). And Oakland is a (-110) home dog while Denver is is a (100) road favorite. All very interesting and it muddles up the wagers I'd been considering.

**Indy Brian** · 11-09-05, 12:47 PM

What do you think about Rutgers +22 against Louisville at home? They seem much more evenly matched, 'on paper', than the line indicates. I am considering taking the points on this one. Thanks for your input.

**Razz** · 11-09-05, 03:27 PM

Definitely Rutgers is the only side I would think about taking in that one. I had the line made out at Louisville -16.5. The only downside to that side is that Louisville is averaging 59 ppg in their 4 home games.

**Razz** · 11-09-05, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by Shawn01

I see the Dolphins are home dogs two weeks in a row.

If the Patriots had won Monday night, the Dolphins would have definitely been a play for me this week.

**Razz** · 11-10-05, 10:25 AM

College Writeups

I rarely buy points in college football, but bought both Auburn and Alabama to +3.5 this week, because of the amazing defenses featured in both games.

Thursday 11/10

4* Fresno St. -7 vs. Boise St.
Fresno has been looking forward to this game for a long time, and head coach Pat Hill said this is the biggest home game in the history of the Fresno St. program. Why would he feel that way? Fresno has been denied the WAC title because of four consecutive losses to Boise. Now a very experienced Fresno St. team will be looking for revenge. This group of Bulldogs players will be extremely motivated in their quest for their first WAC title, and first win over Boise St.
Fresno has weapons all over the field offensively, and is averaging 46 ppg in their last 13. Boise St. can't stop anybody, but they can score. Fresno's experienced defense is the difference.
Fresno St. 49, Boise St. 28

Saturday 11/12

5* Minnesota -5 vs. Michigan St.
Minnesota is bitter about a 51-17 loss in East Lansing last year, and this has been one of the games they have been looking to all season.
Minnesota’s offense has been really clicking this season, and check this stat. They have gained at least 545 yards in all of their home games, including 578 against an Ohio St. defense that is as good as any north of Tennessee.
Michigan St. cannot stop the run. They have given up more than five yards per carry against Michigan, Ohio St., Northwestern, and Purdue. All of those teams are effective at running the ball, but none have running backs like Maroney and Russell, who run behind one of the best lines in football. Not surprisingly, Minnesota leads the nation in rushing offense. A passing game has also emerged, as QB Cupito has thrown for over 600 yards in his two starts since returning from a shoulder injury.
Michigan St. is averaging 37 ppg this year, but struggled against a struggling Purdue defense last week (only 14 offensive points) The Minnesota defense has improved enough to at least hold the Spartans down.
Minnesota 49, Michigan St. 27

4* Oregon St. -4 vs. Stanford
Beavers eat trees.
Stanford has been doing it with smoke and mirrors all season, having been out-gained in their last two wins. The weirdest stat I found in college football may come here. Despite being ranked 101st both offensively and defensively, and playing in a major conference, Stanford has covered five in a row.
Stanford comes into this one unhealthy, and faces an Oregon St. team with a potent offense. RB Bernard is continuing the recent history of fantastic Oregon St. running backs, having rushed for 675 yards in his last four games. QB Moore has been solid all season, and should have his way with the weak Stanford secondary.
The favorite has covered 14 of 16 in Oregon St. games. I think we might be getting a little bit of line value here, as Oregon St. absolutely dominated Washington last week, but could never find the end zone, winning 18-10 on the strength of 6 field goals.
Oregon St. 37, Stanford 24

3* Oklahoma -13 vs. Texas A&M
It may seem impossible after their start to the season, but it is possible that Oklahoma is now the most underrated team in all of college football. The Sooners’ record stands at 5-3, but their three losses came against teams with a total of two losses.
Oklahoma’s offense has been getting things turned around, and should put up plenty of points against an A&M defense that has given up 62 first downs and well over 1,100 yards the last two weeks. Adrian Peterson is back to his stature as an elite college running back after early season injuries, and the bye week will only help.
OU’s defense has given up 90 combined rushing yards the last three weeks, and should contain an Aggie defense that hasn’t lived up to expectations. QB McNeal doesn’t have any help, as his receiving corps has been decimated by injuries all year.
By the way, the last time Texas A&M traveled to Norman, the final was 77-0, and it could have been a lot worse.
Oklahoma 42, Texas A&M 17

3* Auburn +3 @ Georgia
Auburn has won 9 of 10 in Athens against the Bulldogs, and since they are playing better than anyone in the conference, I fully expect an outright win here.
Auburn has been breaking down tapes of the Arkansas-Georgia game all week, and plans on employing much of the same offensive strategy as the Razorbacks did in their 3-point loss, in which they rushed for 216 yards despite little threat of a passing game.
Auburn’s offensive line has become dominant (unbelievably, Auburn has rushed for 24 more yards per game this year than last year when Carnell “Cadillac” Williams and Ronnie Brown were in the Tiger backfield), and should have its way with the predictable Georgia defense. The Bulldogs attack the run game with their front seven, and play almost exclusively base defense. Since the Tigers have weapons at receiver and a quarterback capable of getting it to them, I think Auburn may score as many points against Georgia as anyone has this season.
Defensively, Auburn has already dealt with two mobile quarterbacks this season. In their opener, Reggie Ball of Georgia Tech played decent in leading his team to victory. Afterwards, the Tigers figured out their problem. They were knifing their defensive ends, which caused the other defenders to get out of their lanes. They remedied that before their next such test, and shut down LSU, allowing only 10 offensive points in regulation.
Of course, there is no guarantee that Georgia QB Shockley will even have mobility in this one, as he is coming off an injury.
Auburn 20, Georgia 14

2* Clemson +1.5 vs. Florida St.
This is another case of reputation versus reality. There is no reason in the world Florida St. should be favored in this game, expect that they are the household name.
Seminole fans who criticized Chris Rix the past few years are lamenting he is gone now, as they booed Drew Weatherford out of the stadium in his three interception performance last week. Also, FSU can’t muster any sort of a running game (only 108 total in their two difficult road games - @ BC and @ Virginia), as they rank 90th in rushing.
Also, I’ll continue to go against the overrated Seminole defense, who have given up at least 20 points in their last five games, mostly against mediocre offenses. Charlie Whitehurst and the Tiger offense are consistent, and mistake-free. They have only turned the ball over twice in five home games this season.
Clemson 31, Florida St. 24

2* Iowa St. +2.5 vs. Colorado
Iowa St. has major revenge from last year’s tough loss, which caused the Cyclones to miss the Big 12 championship game. In that one, Iowa St. turned it over four times, and missed two chip-shot field goals.
A much better team than their record shows, two of Iowa St.’s losses were on the road in OT, and they have only had game where they did not play at peak level.
Since Iowa St.’s RB Hicks has come back, the Cyclone offense has been clicking to the tune of nearly 500 ypg the last two weeks. QB Meyer is clicking, and Iowa St.’s defense is shutting down all comers. Colorado’s offense is good, but is nowhere near as effective away from Boulder.
Colorado hasn’t covered on the road in six weeks, and shouldn’t be favored in this one.
Iowa St. 27, Colorado 20

2* Alabama +3 vs. LSU
As the line movement shows, people have been waiting for a chance to exploit this Alabama team. I think they are pulling the string one week too soon.
Much is being made of the fact that Alabama hasn’t scored a touchdown against an SEC opponent since October 15th. But, that game was also the last time they allowed any offensive touchdown. This team is allowing 8.2 ppg. That is unheard of, and it may go down against an LSU offense that is badly overrated.
Honestly, who would you rather have at QB? Brodie Croyle or Jamarcus Russell? It’s not even close for me. Also, Darby is the best running back in the game, but LSU has a stable of running backs that makes this position about a wash. Even without Prothro, the receiving matchup is even, if not in the Tide’s favor.
Alabama is missing their best player and their starting center (By the way, I know a lot about Taylor Britt, the backup center, and would be stunned if he did not have a great game). Honestly, that is the only thing keeping this from being at the top of this list of plays. In Alabama, I get the best defense in the nation, and a team that knows how to manufacture wins, as a home underdog. Defensive dogs are one of the most consistent value plays in sports gambling, and I’m certainly on this one.
Alabama 16, LSU 10

2* Iowa +3 @ Wisconsin
I don’t know if a team has ever been out-rushed by 293 yards one week, and then been favored against a top Big 10 team the next. That is the case with Wisconsin here.
I feel like Iowa is a touchdown better team, but the Badgers are in a good spot. It is longtime HC Alvarez’s last game, and it is possible that Iowa could be dispirited by last week’s miraculous loss that knocked them out of contention in the Big 10. Still, I don’t expect a team coached by Kirk Ferentz to suffer any lingering affects from that.
Wisconsin’s defense can’t stop anybody. They have given up 2,644 yards the last five weeks. By the way, they play in the Big 10, not the PAC-10. Iowa’s QB Tate and RB Young (over 200 yards last week) lead a very good Iowa offense.
Iowa is going to gang up on stopping Wisconsin’s solid running game, and make QB Stocco beat them. As I’ve said before, I just don’t think he’s good enough.
Iowa 38, Wisconsin 28

1* Georgia Tech +5.5 @ Virginia
Georgia Tech has been a fabulous road team recently, covering 6 of 7. The lone loss was 51-7 in Blacksburg to a Virginia Tech team that was clicking on all cylinders. In the other six, the Yellow Jackets gave up only 13 ppg.
This is another defensive dog, and one which is giving up barely over 100 rushing ypg this year, and has created many turnovers, including 16 interceptions.
RB Daniels has turned in consecutive impressive performances, and QB Ball may prove to be a difficult matchup for the Cavaliers.
Georgia Tech 22, Virginia 20

1* Pittsburgh -12 vs. Connecticut
As bad as Dave Wannstedt’s Pitt career began, things have been turning recently. They were impressive in the first half at Louisville last week, and QB Palko is regaining the confidence he had last year.
UCONN is battling injuries at QB, and in turn, the running game is no longer solid. Pitt needs a big home win, and they are catching Connecticut at the perfect time to get one.
Pitt 31, UCONN 14

NCAAF Totals (23-24-0, -13.10*)
None

In-State Opinions (7-2-2), not including games that I have a rated play on:
Central Florida +8 @ UAB
Arkansas St. -3 vs. Troy

**bigpig19** · 11-10-05, 01:33 PM

After an amazin week were we wnt 6-0 in college winning 26* we are back looking for another good week

Total football w/consensus partner +37.1*
Total football w/out consensus partner +28.3*

Here are my selections

College

4* Clemson +1
4* Wisconsin -2.5
3* South Carolina +3'
3* UCLA -3'

My personal top 13 (10-1 last week)

1. Iowa State +2
2. Ohio State -18
3. Okalhoma -13
4. Wisconsin -2'
5. Oregon State -5'
6. Clemson +1
7. Boston College -4
8. BYU -4
9. Hawaii -16'
10. UCLA -3'
11. Navy +23
12. South Carolina +3'
13. Washington +13

NFL

5* Buffalo -2'
5* Denver -3
5* Detroit -3'

My personal top 5

1. New York Giants -9'
2. Dallas +3
3. Buffalo -2'
4. Denver -3
5. Detroit -3'

not like me to have this many favorites in the pros but these are the games i feel most comfortable with