NFL Best Bet Thread - Week 08

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Post em here.

Thx to Khicks, OldBill and others. Posting good info.

We hit some nice winners last week. So, maybe we're gaining steam.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will start with one tidbit that you might factor into your handicapping.

Heard this on a Bill Cowher interview: *Lamar Jackson now 16-1 S/U vs NFC.
...Cowher thinks that Lamar is too hard to simulate in practice.
...Teams that don't play against Lamar often are shell-shocked when they see the speed/passing combo.
...AFC North teams are more prepared, b/c they play BALT 2x per year.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Incredibly tricky game = ATL at TENN.

Can Tenn do anything with Levis/Willis?

[DJK]

Incredibly tricky game = ATL at TENN.

Can Tenn do anything with Levis/Willis?

Willis sucks.

Levis rookie.

So, no.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Khicks, take a look. Do some homework.

I think this week may be promising. Similar to last week, I see some spots.

Will do some analysis and come back. Travelling this week, running late on my preparation.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 252 INDIANAPOLIS Colts +1.5 (1.93). $100 to win 93.

...Minshew has taken the reins as the starting QB.
...RB Taylor is back. Colts have been scoring consistently.
...Colts produced great offensive output last week vs vaunted Brown defense.
...Dubious finish with the bad ref calls at the end.
...Saints Defense gets mention in the rankings. But that's partially driven by low Strength of Schedule.
...Saints have been awful at Red Zone scoring. Is Carr STILL carrying a knock on the shoulder?

Colts have been very competitive. I expect the same here. Not sure the right team is favored, I like the points.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I was scouting out Cin/SF. A few notes:

1) I thought OT TWilliams would be Out. Chance that he plays.

2) I reviewed Darnold's stats at Carolina last year. Sam actually played pretty well.
...Purdy to Darnold might not be as big as I originally thought.

[khicks26]

DAM! I didn't see this until today. Good to see you made it this week.

I'm going with the Bears +8.5 this week. I don't think the Chargers are 8.5 point better than any team in the NFL. Backdoor cover all over this one.

[khicks26]

Playing: 252 INDIANAPOLIS Colts +1.5 (1.93). $100 to win 93.

...Minshew has taken the reins as the starting QB.
...RB Taylor is back. Colts have been scoring consistently.
...Colts produced great offensive output last week vs vaunted Brown defense.
...Dubious finish with the bad ref calls at the end.
...Saints Defense gets mention in the rankings. But that's partially driven by low Strength of Schedule.
...Saints have been awful at Red Zone scoring. Is Carr STILL carrying a knock on the shoulder?

Colts have been very competitive. I expect the same here. Not sure the right team is favored, I like the points.

Like this pick as well. N.O may have a sickness going through the team.

[OldBill]

TITANS my best 10 unit hammer 2 reasons headed up ats and rested they were -9.5 then -3 Falcons did crossover -9.5 to + 6.5 they are 2-5 ats Titans also get players back

[DwightShrute]

Incredibly tricky game = ATL at TENN.

Can Tenn do anything with Levis/Willis?

Derrick Henry's last game as a Titan. He will get lots of work.

[OldBill]

scratch Titans lost qb tannenhill hc going with 2 stone cold rookies urghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

plus these players OUT

DT N jones ??? Illnes
TE J wyle OUT
R MCREARY CB OUT
T stallworth OUT indef undisclosed

[OldBill]

and wow consenus over at c o vers 65% on Titans

[ChuckyTheGoat]

DAM! I didn't see this until today. Good to see you made it this week.

I'm going with the Bears +8.5 this week. I don't think the Chargers are 8.5 point better than any team in the NFL. Backdoor cover all over this one.

Thx, K. GL on the Bears. Bagent fever.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

and wow consenus over at c o vers 65% on Titans

The old Vrabel ATS Dog stat.

[OldBill]

best bet packers ml -108 10 units

[Str8Mush4Life]

scratch Titans lost qb tannenhill hc going with 2 stone cold rookies urghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

plus these players OUT

DT N jones ??? Illnes
TE J wyle OUT
R MCREARY CB OUT
T stallworth OUT indef undisclosed

Tannehill was ruled out TWO days ago Bill ffs

[DJK]

Willis sucks.

Levis rookie.

So, no.

Apparently, Levis isn't too bad as a rookie after all.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

K, I don't like these games where Walt is flipping his pick. Tells me that his head is elsewhere.

[DJK]

K, I don't like these games where Walt is flipping his pick. Tells me that his head is elsewhere.

Who is Walt?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 252 INDIANAPOLIS Colts +1.5 (1.93). $100 to win 93.

...Minshew has taken the reins as the starting QB.
...RB Taylor is back. Colts have been scoring consistently.
...Colts produced great offensive output last week vs vaunted Brown defense.
...Dubious finish with the bad ref calls at the end.
...Saints Defense gets mention in the rankings. But that's partially driven by low Strength of Schedule.
...Saints have been awful at Red Zone scoring. Is Carr STILL carrying a knock on the shoulder?

Colts have been very competitive. I expect the same here. Not sure the right team is favored, I like the points.

ATS Loser for me. And no excuses. Saints looked like the right side.

Question my analysis on this game. I didn't acknowledge how bad the Indy CBs are.

[DwightShrute]

Tannehill was ruled out TWO days ago Bill ffs

lol

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="zxx" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/9CsQ2xbUNu">pic.twitter.com/9CsQ2xbUNu</a></p>&mdash; 1000 WAYS TO DIE (@1000waystod1e) <a href="https://twitter.com/1000waystod1e/status/1718426682028433791?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 29, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[khicks26]

K, I don't like these games where Walt is flipping his pick. Tells me that his head is elsewhere.

Getting the same feeling and avoiding those picks from him. But I did like Jax anyway.

Other than that game and some props it was a total shit day.

[khicks26]

Now that the Lions spread is at 7 will be taking them tonight to get right after the Ravan's made them look like fools last week.

Should be looking to beat up on a not so good Raiders team with a bad head coach.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Getting the same feeling and avoiding those picks from him. But I did like Jax anyway.

Other than that game and some props it was a total shit day.

I'm not a judgmental guy. Just one thing to consider:

*Note how many times he's mentioned a) Being a new dad and b) Being tired and short of sleep.

Not criticizing. Just saying that handicapping requires focus and a very specific process.

SOFT analysis like "flu on Saints" is not great work. I wish Walt the best, but take it with a grain of salt.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Getting the same feeling and avoiding those picks from him. But I did like Jax anyway.

Other than that game and some props it was a total shit day.

JAX was an interesting case study:
1) Jax has been playing well. But running too hot?
2) One thing's for sure. Steelers have won some games that defy logic.

[Str8Mush4Life]

Now that the Lions spread is at 7 will be taking them tonight to get right after the Ravan's made them look like fools last week.

Should be looking to beat up on a not so good Raiders team with a bad head coach.

This smells like a random Raiders win due to the obvious lopsidedness and Detroit at home.

I hate everything about this game, so I think LV + the points.........

[khicks26]

I'm not a judgmental guy. Just one thing to consider:

*Note how many times he's mentioned a) Being a new dad and b) Being tired and short of sleep.

Not criticizing. Just saying that handicapping requires focus and a very specific process.

SOFT analysis like "flu on Saints" is not great work. I wish Walt the best, but take it with a grain of salt.

Agree! New dad and lack of sleep is not good.

[khicks26]

This smells like a random Raiders win due to the obvious lopsidedness and Detroit at home.

I hate everything about this game, so I think LV + the points.........

GL my friend. Public was 6-4-1 this week.

[khicks26]

JAX was an interesting case study:
1) Jax has been playing well. But running too hot?
2) One thing's for sure. Steelers have won some games that defy logic.

Yea Jax was not going to let them get lucky. That is a focused team.

[Str8Mush4Life]

GL my friend. Public was 6-4-1 this week.

I have no money on this game. I won't raise an eyebrow if The Lions coast, but something just stinks.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Looking for Winners again.

Had a good Week 7. But I question my process nowadays.

Focus is diverted elsewhere. Thought the Colts were a good play. But my handicap wasn't very good, Colt 2ndary is a pushover nowadays.