NFL Best Bet Thread - Week 06

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hasn't been a banner year but thx to anyone for posting.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Walt this week:

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Haven't listened yet. How many times will Millman reference the Vrabel ATS Dog stat?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Haven't listened yet. How many times will Millman reference the Vrabel ATS Dog stat?

34:00 I knew Millman was gonna reference Vrabel.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 274 NEW YORK JETS +7 (1.93). $100 to win 93.

I see multiple reasons to back the Jets:

1) Think the +7 represents good Line Value.
2) "Zach Wilson sucks." OK, I heard it. Feel like it bloats the Jet numbers.
3) Feel like the Eagles are a phony 5-0. Statistically not as sharp as the 2022 edition.

Cmon, Fireman Ed. J-E-T-S.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A few more reasons to like the Jets in this spot:

4) Strength of Schedule Edge.
...Jets have (arguably) played three of the top five teams in the league.

5) RB Breese Hall back for the Jets.
...Nice offensive weapon with breakaway speed.
...Jets missed Hall tremendously after he got injured in middle of the 2022 season.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4:30 Guy makes a great point: *BALT dropped 150 yards of offense in last game vs Steelers.

...He's exactly right. Early on, Balt looked like they were gonna run PITT out of the stadium.
...Wide-open receivers. Passes that were good (if not perfect). Drops, on top of an INT thrown into the EZ.
...Balt could have easily won that game by 10+.

[khicks26]

Will be around more next week now that the fall rush is dying down.

I liked the Jets pick as well got in at plus 7. Bad news is there best corner is out for this game, still think the spread is to high.


Pick for this week is the Colts +4.


RECAP: In my previous pick capsule, I suggested that the Saints could be looking ahead to Thursday’s game against Jacksonville. I think there’s a much better chance the Jaguars are caught peeking than New Orleans because they’re coming off a two-game London trip in which they upset the Bills. The NFL schedule-maker giveth and taketh away, apparently.

There are actually multiple reasons why the Jaguars won’t be fully focused for this game. In addition to the look-ahead, Jacksonville already beat the Colts earlier this season. Also, Indianapolis will be starting its backup quarterback, so the Jaguars probably won’t take the Colts very seriously.

Another reason to like the Colts is that there’s a slight misprice as far as the spread is concerned. This line is -4.5 as of Tuesday afternoon, yet both my projected spread and the EPA number say that Jacksonville should be -3. That’s just a 1.5-point difference, but three is the primary key number in the NFL. This discrepancy, assuming the projected lines are correct, gives us about a 7.13-percent marginal edge, which is not insignificant. Think about handicapping games at 50 percent, and then imagine being 57.13 percent against the spread. That’s a huge difference!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something I didn’t talk about was that this is a rough body clock spot for the Jaguars. Jacksonville had such a big advantage last week because it remained in London, but now the players’ body clocks will have to adjust again, which is far from ideal. With that in mind, as well as the sharp action coming in for teI’m going to increase my unit count to four.

SATURDAY NOTES: The deeper we get into the week, the more I love the Colts. This is such a great motivational spot for them. They’re also getting many players back from injury, while the Jaguars will be missing some players like Walker Little and Zay Jones.

[khicks26]

4:30 Guy makes a great point: *BALT dropped 150 yards of offense in last game vs Steelers.

...He's exactly right. Early on, Balt looked like they were gonna run PITT out of the stadium.
...Wide-open receivers. Passes that were good (if not perfect). Drops, on top of an INT thrown into the EZ.
...Balt could have easily won that game by 10+.

I like that Balt left on Monday and Tenn waited till Thursday to head to London. Bills did the same thing last week and got their asses kicked.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Khicks. Good Luck.

I have one observation for analysis of these games:
*There's so much INFORMATION in the modern world.

It's enough to overwhelm one's brain. Think about the injury info and how it impacts the line. I think it's TOO MUCH.

I personally don't like the Colts. And it's one basic premise. If the opening-week # was Jax -3.5, the rematch in JAX is now at virtually the same # (-4). I know NFL HFA is down this year but it's more than 0.5.

I know Walt looks at these travel spots. My thing is that Walt will use that angle if it helps him and ignore it if he wants. Case in point:

*Buf/Jax both play 7 days after playing in London.

...Used to be that teams almost ALWAYS opted for the bye week on the return to USA.
...Walt likes the Colts so he uses the Jax travel note.
...Walt hates the Giants (for good reason). What about the Buff jet-lag? That's 7200 air-miles in a short-time span. Bills look like a blowout against Tyrod and this hideous Giant line. But the Bills could be leg-weary.

Good Luck on your plays. You know I could talk about these games ad infinitum.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I like that Balt left on Monday and Tenn waited till Thursday to head to London. Bills did the same thing last week and got their asses kicked.

If you want to see a team that's PHONY (relative to their 3-2 record), take a long look at the Steelers.

*The Steelers got routed by Niners/Texans.
*The Steelers got two miracle wins (vs Cle/Balt) where it would look impossible in the boxscore.

[OldBill]

sorry chucky but i'm laying 6.5 with E A G L E S they just punish jets every time they meet up even - 10 + points it's like some times they play rival giants before jets b 2 b in same stadium weird

[ChuckyTheGoat]

sorry chucky but i'm laying 6.5 with E A G L E S they just punish jets every time they meet up even - 10 + points it's like some times they play rival giants before jets b 2 b in same stadium weird

OK. Good Luck, Bill. I respect your opinion.

[Str8Mush4Life]

it's like some times they play rival giants before jets b 2 b in same stadium weird

Good stuff, Bill!!

[khicks26]

Thx, Khicks. Good Luck.

I have one observation for analysis of these games:
*There's so much INFORMATION in the modern world.

It's enough to overwhelm one's brain. Think about the injury info and how it impacts the line. I think it's TOO MUCH.

I personally don't like the Colts. And it's one basic premise. If the opening-week # was Jax -3.5, the rematch in JAX is now at virtually the same # (-4). I know NFL HFA is down this year but it's more than 0.5.

I know Walt looks at these travel spots. My thing is that Walt will use that angle if it helps him and ignore it if he wants. Case in point:

*Buf/Jax both play 7 days after playing in London.

...Used to be that teams almost ALWAYS opted for the bye week on the return to USA.
...Walt likes the Colts so he uses the Jax travel note.
...Walt hates the Giants (for good reason). What about the Buff jet-lag? That's 7200 air-miles in a short-time span. Bills look like a blowout against Tyrod and this hideous Giant line. But the Bills could be leg-weary.

Good Luck on your plays. You know I could talk about these games ad infinitum.

He liked the Bills in London based on elite teams overcome the travel. Also Jax was an unknown as no team has played two consecutive games in London.

I don't think he has a bet on the Bills yet this week. He said if he did bet the game it would be based on the Giants OL missing four starters.

I didn't like either of these picks.

I like the Colts based on they are a better team than people thought, the spread over +3, Minshew is the QB, 2nd division games play a little tighter than the 1st, and this does look like a flat spot for Jax that maybe a little overrated at this point.

[khicks26]

If you want to see a team that's PHONY (relative to their 3-2 record), take a long look at the Steelers.

*The Steelers got routed by Niners/Texans.
*The Steelers got two miracle wins (vs Cle/Balt) where it would look impossible in the boxscore.

Agree, but those NFC North games always play strange. Didn't touch that Balt/Pitt game.

[khicks26]

Spots I disagree with Walt this week. He's on Washington and TB this week. Not sure if he bet either of these.

I like the Lions (hometown fan) LOL didn't bet ATL.

[khicks26]

4:30 Guy makes a great point: *BALT dropped 150 yards of offense in last game vs Steelers.

...He's exactly right. Early on, Balt looked like they were gonna run PITT out of the stadium.
...Wide-open receivers. Passes that were good (if not perfect). Drops, on top of an INT thrown into the EZ.
...Balt could have easily won that game by 10+.

Looks like the travel narrative held on this game.

[khicks26]

He liked the Bills in London based on elite teams overcome the travel. Also Jax was an unknown as no team has played two consecutive games in London.

I don't think he has a bet on the Bills yet this week. He said if he did bet the game it would be based on the Giants OL missing four starters.

I didn't like either of these picks.

I like the Colts based on they are a better team than people thought, the spread over +3, Minshew is the QB, 2nd division games play a little tighter than the 1st, and this does look like a flat spot for Jax that maybe a little overrated at this point.

At least it was never in doubt. Minshew shits the bed.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 274 NEW YORK JETS +7 (1.93). $100 to win 93.

I see multiple reasons to back the Jets:

1) Think the +7 represents good Line Value.
2) "Zach Wilson sucks." OK, I heard it. Feel like it bloats the Jet numbers.
3) Feel like the Eagles are a phony 5-0. Statistically not as sharp as the 2022 edition.

Cmon, Fireman Ed. J-E-T-S.

Happy to get this one. Nice team effort by the Jets:

1) One of the backup CBs picked off Hurts.
2) Something wrong with the Eagles. Too much of it is on Hurts.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

At least it was never in doubt. Minshew shits the bed.

Get em next time, Khicks.

I told you where I stand on Walter. He's knowledgeable. I just really question a capper who bases his plays on verbal reasoning.

Anybody can do that IMHO. In Walt's case, I know he does research. I just strongly disagree with his handicapping method.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Khicks, I believe Walt used New Eng +3 as his Play of the Month.

Talk about a brutal finish. Hoyer had replaced Jimmy. It looked like the Patriots were too far away from the Goal-line.

Then they went backwards. Mac has thrown several Pick-Sixes. I wasn't sure he had this (the safety) in him, but there it was.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Brutal beat for Walt's GOM:

Week 6 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Raiders 16
Patriots +3 -115 (8 Units – October NFL Pick of the Month) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$920

[khicks26]

Happy to get this one. Nice team effort by the Jets:

1) One of the backup CBs picked off Hurts.
2) Something wrong with the Eagles. Too much of it is on Hurts.

Good pick! Nice eye to see that Zak Wilson was playing better and the team hadn't given up on him. Eagles a little overrated and the Jets a little underrated. Line of +7 was to much.

[khicks26]

Get em next time, Khicks.

I told you where I stand on Walter. He's knowledgeable. I just really question a capper who bases his plays on verbal reasoning.

Anybody can do that IMHO. In Walt's case, I know he does research. I just strongly disagree with his handicapping method.

I'm sure more goes into than what's in the vid. I still think he picks are a good starting point to capping games for the week. I think he would have no problem with you disagreeing with him.

[khicks26]

Khicks, I believe Walt used New Eng +3 as his Play of the Month.

Talk about a brutal finish. Hoyer had replaced Jimmy. It looked like the Patriots were too far away from the Goal-line.

Then they went backwards. Mac has thrown several Pick-Sixes. I wasn't sure he had this (the safety) in him, but there it was.

Yea I seen that. I can't wait to see his reaction this week LOL What a fuking heartbreaker. I put a small bet on N.E, but I didn't like the pick. Just laughed when I seen the safety.

I think we can say the Belichick narrative is over.

Good thing about Walt is he will learn from it and own up to it.

[khicks26]

Any opinion on tonights game?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Any opinion on tonights game?

Small play on Chargers +1.5.

1) DALL stats don't look too good after the debacle at San Fran.
2) Charger injury report looks promising. James/Ekeler returning, chance that Joey Bosa plays.

Week 6 Injury Report

• Updated October 14, 2023

3) Chargers decent value here. Also, I'm liking the AFC vs NFC trend. Look it up, this is no joke.

Good Luck, if you are in action.
Share & Export

S	DNP	Doubtful	Heel
DB	DNP	Doubtful	Hamstring
DE	Limited	Questionable	Toe
WR		Questionable	Groin
TE	Full	Questionable	Wrist
DT	Limited	Questionable	Back
RB	Full		Ankle
QB	Full		Finger
SS	Full		Hamstring
OT	Full		Shoulder
G	Full		Ankle

[khicks26]

From what I'm hearing Plamer and Parham are a go, Bosa in would be big.

Kellen Moore the Charges OC was with Dallas last year and should know the Dallas players.

Dallas D not the same since they lost Diggs. IMO the Chargers lean on Eckler and the TE to keep Dallas offense on the sideline. That said I like the QB stat you gave, very interesting.

Besides Walt is on the Cowboys, having a bad year, and clearly frustrated. Even dropped his unit count on this game.


I like the small lean to the Chargers, hate Dallas as an NFL team anyway.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Salud, Khicks. Yes, look at the NFL standings. Right now, there are only three AFC teams < .500.

Pats/Broncos are busts. Titans are 2-4.

In the preseason, I thought the seven AFC playoff teams might repeat (barring QB injury):
*With Burrow injury, I thought Cle might flip CIN. But now Burrow looks OK.

I'd stick with that AFC view. The Apple Cart doesn't figure to move those 7 teams w/ exception of:
*CLE forcing their way in, if this DEF is that good.

...Chargers are really the team on the bubble, imho.

Yes, look at the AFC/NFC results from the last few weeks.