NFL Wk 03 - Random observations/plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Starting this thread for Discussion outside the Best Bet thread.

Basic idea = notes/observations that might point posters toward a winner.

Of course, every play is tied to poster's opinion. If you list a play, support it with basic premise.

I'll start: *People don't yet realize how bad Carolina is.

Young has a pop-gun arm. No way do I expect him to have production.

Going on the road. Until I'm shown otherwise, I see him struggling to produce > 17 pts in a given game.

I don't think he stretches the field at all. By the way, this was a similar problem at Alabama last year. ALAB was void of explosive plays last year.

Playing: Carolina TEAM TOTAL - Under 17.5 (2.04).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*Would appreciate any info on whether CIN qb Burrow is expected to start this week.

And if he does start, is his mobility better than it has been?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Market has their opinion on Young. Young ruled out, Dalton to start. Line shortens up:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/search/ChuckyTheGoat/35026004-threads.html

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Market has their opinion on Young. Young ruled out, Dalton to start. Line shortens up:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...4-threads.html

By my tracking, markets rate Dalton > Young:

*Game line went from +6 to +5.5. About a half-pt swing.
*The Team Total I quoted moved 4-cents, +104 to +100.

Will at least be interesting to see if the Carolina offense opens up with Dalton under center.

[khicks26]

By my tracking, markets rate Dalton > Young:

*Game line went from +6 to +5.5. About a half-pt swing.
*The Team Total I quoted moved 4-cents, +104 to +100.

Will at least be interesting to see if the Carolina offense opens up with Dalton under center.

Walt likes it.

SATURDAY NOTES: In a hilarious turn of events, the Panthers dropped from +6.5 to +5.5 in the wake of the news that Andy Dalton will replace Bryce Young. Actually, it might have something to do with the Seahawk injuries. Seattle will be missing its top two tackles again, while Tariq Woolen and Quandre Diggs look unlkely to play. I’m adding a moneyline play. More importantly, I decided that this will be my September NFL Pick of the Month. The Seahawks won in Detroit, which has caused public sentiment to be on their side. However, the Lions suffered so many injuries that it was actually unimpressive that the Seahawks had to beat Detroit in overtime. This line is way too high, and Geno Smith is just 1-6 against the spread as a favorite of more than three in his career.


Week 3 NFL Pick: Seahawks 28, Panthers 27
Panthers +6 (8 Units – September NFL Pick of the Month)
Moneyline: Panthers +212 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker
Over 42 (0 Units)

[DwightShrute]

*Would appreciate any info on whether CIN qb Burrow is expected to start this week.

And if he does start, is his mobility better than it has been?

Adam Schefter

10 hours ago

Bengals are listing Joe Burrow as questionable for Monday night’s game versus the Rams due to his calf injury.

Cincy doesn't play until Monday. Hold off as long as you can.

https://www.rotowire.com/football/news.php

[khicks26]

Adam Schefter

10 hours ago

Bengals are listing Joe Burrow as questionable for Monday night’s game versus the Rams due to his calf injury.

Cincy doesn't play until Monday. Hold off as long as you can.

https://www.rotowire.com/football/news.php

They signed a backup QB, could mean Burrow is sitting. I think he needs to sit out and get right.

[DwightShrute]

They signed a backup QB, could mean Burrow is sitting. I think he needs to sit out and get right.

probably the right thing

[khicks26]

probably the right thing

One guy said he likes Cinn if Burrow sits, if he plays take the Rams.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Walt's late info:

[ChuckyTheGoat]

news
Packers RB Aaron Jones, WR Christian Watson inactive vs. Saints

[ChuckyTheGoat]

news
Packers RB Aaron Jones, WR Christian Watson inactive vs. Saints

More Packers out:
Elsewhere, left tackle David Bakhtiari is missing a second game due to a persistent knee issue, and cornerback Jaire Alexander will be absent after popping up Friday with a back injury.

OG Jenkins also likely out.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.nfl.com/news/inactive-reports-for-sunday-s-week-3-games-of-the-2023-nfl-season

GL to everyone on their picks.

[khicks26]

news
Packers RB Aaron Jones, WR Christian Watson inactive vs. Saints

More Packers out:
Elsewhere, left tackle David Bakhtiari is missing a second game due to a persistent knee issue, and cornerback Jaire Alexander will be absent after popping up Friday with a back injury.

OG Jenkins also likely out.

This blows! Never mind my best bet.

Put Olave Carr and Shaheed in your fantasy lineups.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Maybe they come thru for you. You just never know.

You know my feelings. These late injuries normally get an OVER-reaction.

I was digesting Walt's thoughts on Carol/SEA. He liked Carolina w/ Young. Clear to me that Dalton is the better statistical QB (over Young). +5.5 looked good. Market keeps dipping, now +5.

[khicks26]

Maybe they come thru for you. You just never know.

You know my feelings. These late injuries normally get an OVER-reaction.

I was digesting Walt's thoughts on Carol/SEA. He liked Carolina w/ Young. Clear to me that Dalton is the better statistical QB (over Young). +5.5 looked good. Market keeps dipping, now +5.

Going to need special teams and defense to make some plays.

I think he likes them more with Dalton, he even put a unit on the moneyline. Not sure what he locked the spread at.


SATURDAY NOTES: In a hilarious turn of events, the Panthers dropped from +6.5 to +5.5 in the wake of the news that Andy Dalton will replace Bryce Young. Actually, it might have something to do with the Seahawk injuries. Seattle will be missing its top two tackles again, while Tariq Woolen and Quandre Diggs look unlkely to play. I’m adding a moneyline play. More importantly, I decided that this will be my September NFL Pick of the Month. The Seahawks won in Detroit, which has caused public sentiment to be on their side. However, the Lions suffered so many injuries that it was actually unimpressive that the Seahawks had to beat Detroit in overtime. This line is way too high, and Geno Smith is just 1-6 against the spread as a favorite of more than three in his career.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Yes, Khicks. I looked at Dalton's stats. He completed 67% last year.

Markets reacted. Per usual, it's about getting ahead of the #.