Vegas Max Bets thread

[Vegas Max Bets]

Hello all! This thread will function as my NFL thread of "Vegas Max Bets."

I've had back to back successful years now, 55% ATS this year over 174 games and 56% ATS last year over 142 games. I am looking to continue to post my ATS picks here, provide analysis on the games I post, and keep track of my ATS record. Unfortunately, we only have the Super Bowl remaining, so I will pickup in the fall with the 2022-2023 NFL season.

My next post will be in-depth analysis of the Super Bowl: Cincinnati vs LA

[Vegas Max Bets]

Cincinnati Bengals vs (at). LA Rams

PICK: LA RAMS-4.5

The Cincinnati Bengals come into the Super bowl matchup versus the LA Rams in some what surprising fashion. After beating the Vegas Raiders at home, they went on to defeat the #1 seeded Titans, and perhaps more surprisingly the #2 seeded Chiefs, both road games. The Chiefs completely outplayed them in the first half, while falling apart in the second half and ultimately demising in shocking fashion (1^st half vs 2^nd half stats). The Bengals come in to this Super Bowl with a very balanced approach on offense. There’s a lot to like about them as a team, and I can understand (but don’t agree with) the general public’s allure with the Bengals. They run the ball very well with Joe Mixon and utilize his abilities as a pass catcher equally well. Most note worthy are the wide receivers beginning with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, and of course the exceptional play of Joe Burrow. However, one key offensive piece the Bengals may be missing is starting tight end C.J. Uzomah who suffered a MCL injury in the first quarter against Kansas City. His availability (at this time) is uncertain and even if he plays, he risks being limited. Prior to the Chiefs game, Uzomah played very well in the playoffs with a combined stat line (essentially two games), 13 receptions, 135 yards, 1 TD. His potential absence would be a big loss for the Bengals offense. With all these playmakers going for the Bengals, I have yet to mention their biggest weakness, and this weak spot will ultimately doom the Bengals and be the difference maker for this game– the Bengals offensive line. It’s quite remarkable that the Bengals have made it thus far with such a weak O-line. I think it speaks to the pocket elusiveness and awareness of Joe Burrow. Especially over these last three playoff games, there were many scenarios where Burrow presented just enough escape-ability and was able to elude the pass rush for a key first down throw or run. However, going back to the first two games, the Raiders and especially the Titans presented challenges to the Bengals and caused their offense to be routinely being set back with critical sacks. Recall the Titans has 9 sacks with multiple QB hurries. The Titans offense however was not able to capitalize and the Bengals walked off with a game winning field goal. The Rams will not let them off the hook as easily.

Ultimately this Super bowl will come down to strength vs weakness: Rams defensive pass rush versus Bengal offensive line. The Bengals were third from the bottom in sacks allowed during 2021, with 55 sacks allowed. The Rams by comparison only gave up 31 sacks as an offense. On the other side of the ball, the Rams come into this game third in sacks, sacking the QB 50 time during the regular season. The Titans who sacked Burrow 9 times, were 9^th in the league in sacks. I find it difficult to see how the Bengals, even with all of their playmakers, being able to overcome this tremendous mismatch. Because of the Rams pass rush, Burrow is in trouble of not only being sacked, but this raises the probability of being stripped sacked or rushing a throw and being intercepted.

Moving on to the Rams, there’s much less to say here. In a way, they have “bought their way” to the Super Bowl, with key additions such as Matthew Stafford, who has certainly proven himself during the playoffs. As well as Odell Beckham who has really improved his play over the last several games, and of course Von Miller at linebacker, a key asset in the trio of superb pass rushers the Rams have. I believe the Rams will come into this game with a very balanced offensive approach, perhaps a bit similar to how they approached the Arizona Cardinals in the wild card round. That game, they limited Stafford to only 17attempts, as their run game was gashing the Cardinals defense with 140 yards on38 carries. During the Bengals wild card victory over the Raiders, their starting defensive tackle, Larry Ogunjobi suffered a season ending foot injury. At that time I believed the Titans would be able to take advantage of this loss, in hindsight they did not. I believe the Rams are better suited to run the ball against the Bengals and ultimately dictate the pace of the game with a veteran and proven QB. The reason for this (unlike the Titans) is that the Bengals will have to respect the Rams ability to throw the ball. Stafford is a great asset for play-action shots down the field, while playing complimentary football with the run game.

-Vegas Max Bets

PICK: LA RAMS -4.5

[psufan]

Lmao everyone talking about rams d line vs cincy o line. Did kc get that many sacks against cincy? Has anyone, including Brady, been able to get sacked 9 times and handle that and win? The answer is no. They will adjust, burrow will be cognizant, but the main X factor is the grit of cincy vs La. Mcvay doesn’t handle adversity that well and his time out calling and play making decisions showed at the end of an unimpressive win vs the 9ers. AFC so outclasses the NFC this year. Also, everyone knows but doesn’t want to admit that Burrow >>>> Stafford and that’s the most important part.

[OldBill]

PSU fan i agree he like all others are one sided HE forgets about 1 100% fact that i just posted about the teams that burned your cash all season as far as i have found went 0-7 in past superbowls

NO matter how you slice it it's 100%

YEAH big Deal they Beat Tampa bay as home dog and omg that game @ injured beat up TB blowing a huge DD lead to get one lucky pass and KICK a FG to win as a 3 point dog

Rams beat the weakest seeded teams in Playoffs Cards at Home 5th seed then the #3 seed @ T B then the 7th seeded 49ers at HOME trailing 17-7 in the 4th quarter and get this fact Rams div record 3-3 49ers 2-4 wackiest DIV in all of NFL rams own the cardinals 49ers own the rams seattle was just beat up this year Wilson out with injury

Also i state fact YOU cannot BUY championships Rams sold out thier future to aquire OBJ and Von miller for 3 years future draft picks

and so beat up in defense they had to go get retired player weddle to help well he sure aint helping all that much last two playoff games @ TB then vs 49ers who were on 4th str8 road game and had 4str8 losses in season that game never should have been close

but yet Cincy D made adjustments in 2nd half @ chiefs and at Titans

and I'm no fan of either team another Funny thing THE packers Beat both teams in season

49ers also Beat the Bengals and Rams in season

[Vegas Max Bets]

Super Bowl trench matchups could not be more stark:

LAR pass rush win rate (#1) vs CIN pass block (#30)
CIN pass rush (#25) vs LAR pass block (#1)

LAR run block win rate (#12) vs CIN run stop (#25)
CIN run block (#10) vs LAR run stop (#1) https://t.co/Ys1K4zsfvn

[OldBill]

OO VEGAS MAX you missing thee most important factor the rams defense stats were built upon the worst teams in nfl

Bears Colts (0-3 start) Cardinals 8-8 2020 Seahawks 2 x Giants giggling Lions NO COVER Texans no cover jaguars in la Vikings and Ravens who had multi injured starters playing with 2nd string QB huntley and squeaked a 1 point win

then come home and s/u got blasted by the 49ers

so sorry your betting on the fake rams believe me i'm no fan of rams or bengals rams did not have tp play away 3 road games in any part of season a very easy schedule and went 8 and 9 vs the spread which i posted PROOF teams that BURNT your cash in season went 0-8 in superbowls

out of past 55 superbowls the dogs went 30- 23- 2 either covering the spread or wininng s/u

[Vegas Max Bets]

OO VEGAS MAX you missing thee most important factor the rams defense stats were built upon the worst teams in nfl

Bears Colts (0-3 start) Cardinals 8-8 2020 Seahawks 2 x Giants giggling Lions NO COVER Texans no cover jaguars in la Vikings and Ravens who had multi injured starters playing with 2nd string QB huntley and squeaked a 1 point win

then come home and s/u got blasted by the 49ers

so sorry your betting on the fake rams believe me i'm no fan of rams or bengals rams did not have tp play away 3 road games in any part of season a very easy schedule and went 8 and 9 vs the spread which i posted PROOF teams that BURNT your cash in season went 0-8 in superbowls

out of past 55 superbowls the dogs went 30- 23- 2 either covering the spread or wininng s/u

The Niners are a legit team. Losing to them is no shame. Beat Dallas, GB, and a dropped INT away from the Super Bowl. Let's not forget the Niners beat the Bengals at Cincy. Ha!

[OldBill]

yeah and the titans hammered the Rams at la Bengals bet them in TENN. the niners DIV record BTW was 2-4 rams weakly 3-3

again 100% fact the teams that were bad bets all season went 0-8 in superbowls last year OMG chiefs were worse ever ats like 6-10 or worse

Rams vs the spread in 17 games 8 -9 Bengals vs some of same teams Ravens 2 x with #1 starters 1st game @ ravens jagurs in cincy @ lions they covered lost to 49ers trap game but only by 3 points 23-26 lost to Packers in OT niether team could kick a FG total missed fg's 4th quarter an OT 5 ONLY lost by 3 points 22-25

BUT at end Bengals came out winning counting playoffs 6 out of 7 games but 100% ats they were a 6.5 dog bench game at browns

Beat chiefs 2 X rams would never beat KC and they also LOST to Packers by more than 3 points @ GB they were favored

too!

[Vegas Max Bets]

Thoughts on Rams 23 vs Bengals 20.

1) A huge win for the Rams, unfortunately, did not cover -4.5.

2) Losing OBJ in the second quarter was a huge loss for the Rams offense.

3) The Rams' complete ineffectiveness running the ball was a huge surprise.

4) The Rams pass rush performed as expected with 7 sacks and essentially clinched the game on the last drive.

5) Rams' overall pass defense played well outside of 2 big catches allowed, both by J. Ramsey. The 75 yard TD to start the 3rd quarter easily could have been called back.

6) We will be back strong for the 2022-2023 season, beginning with Week 1. Stay tuned!

[DJK]

Thoughts on Rams 23 vs Bengals 20.

1) A huge win for the Rams, unfortunately, did not cover -4.5.

2) Losing OBJ in the second quarter was a huge loss for the Rams offense.

3) The Rams' complete ineffectiveness running the ball was a huge surprise.

4) The Rams pass rush performed as expected with 7 sacks and essentially clinched the game on the last drive.

5) Rams' overall pass defense played well outside of 2 big catches allowed, both by J. Ramsey. The 75 yard TD to start the 3rd quarter easily could have been called back.

6) We will be back strong for the 2022-2023 season, beginning with Week 1. Stay tuned!

The way you cap the game, I don't see how you could win in NFL. If the things are that obvious as you made them out to be, everyone would make a fortune betting on football.

It's a good thing I didn't listen to you and instead listened to my own self and my older girl with the help from psufan and OldBill.

Honestly, if there was a couple of more minutes left then it was possible the Rams could have kicked a late field goal and covered, so the Bengals backers got lucky for sure.

[Vegas Max Bets]

The way you cap the game, I don't see how you could win in NFL. If the things are that obvious as you made them out to be, everyone would make a fortune betting on football.

It's a good thing I didn't listen to you and instead listened to my own self and my older girl with the help from psufan and OldBill.

Honestly, if there was a couple of more minutes left then it was possible the Rams could have kicked a late field goal and covered, so the Bengals backers got lucky for sure.

What exactly did I get wrong about how I capped it? The only aspect that surprised me was the Rams' lack of run success. Go read the analysis again. The capping was correct, the result was not. That's how it goes sometimes. You can't cap OBJ going down 2nd Q, you can't cap a missed PAT, can't cap a 75 yd TD which should have been OPI.

[DJK]

What exactly did I get wrong about how I capped it? The only aspect that surprised me was the Rams' lack of run success. Go read the analysis again. The capping was correct, the result was not. That's how it goes sometimes. You can't cap OBJ going down 2nd Q, you can't cap a missed PAT, can't cap a 75 yd TD which should have been OPI.

>"Ultimately this Super bowl will come down to strength vs weakness: Rams defensive pass rush versus Bengal offensive line."

Your main focus was on the Rams D-line vs the Bengals O-line just like everyone else who was harping all over the internet, and I'm sure the majority of the public who bet the Rams relied on that harping.

I'm just saying that didn't work.

Honestly, if the Bengals kept up making short throws the whole game and don't bother with any running at all, they win.

Jac Taylor didn't make good calls at the end.

On the defensive side, it looked obvious to me that you put two DB's on Cooper Kupp, which I'm sure Bill Belichick would have done, and let everyone else beat you if anything.

Besides the fact that I had 5 figure bet on the Bengals +4.5, I was rooting for the Bengals to win the game and in my opinion it's on the coaches for their loss and not because of the Rams D-line vs the Bengals O-line even though it did affect the outcome in the end.

[Vegas Max Bets]

>"Ultimately this Super bowl will come down to strength vs weakness: Rams defensive pass rush versus Bengal offensive line."

Your main focus was on the Rams D-line vs the Bengals O-line just like everyone else who was harping all over the internet, and I'm sure the majority of the public who bet the Rams relied on that harping.

I'm just saying that didn't work.

Honestly, if the Bengals kept up making short throws the whole game and don't bother with any running at all, they win.

Jac Taylor didn't make good calls at the end.

On the defensive side, it looked obvious to me that you put two DB's on Cooper Kupp, which I'm sure Bill Belichick would have done, and let everyone else beat you if anything.

Besides the fact that I had 5 figure bet on the Bengals +4.5, I was rooting for the Bengals to win the game and in my opinion it's on the coaches for their loss and not because of the Rams D-line vs the Bengals O-line even though it did affect the outcome in the end.

Rams had 7 sacks and ultimately did stop the last Bengals drive because of their pass rush. 9 times out of 10, a 7 sack game is a double digit victory. So yes the pass rush DID decide the game. However, as far as covering the 4.5, it was losing OBJ in the second Q that cost the offense as they were bogging down from then on with the coverage shading Kupp's way and a lackluster run game.

[Vegas Max Bets]

Alright folks! Here we go! This will continue to function as my 2022 capping thread all season. Let's go!

[Vegas Max Bets]

Week 1 TNF
Buffalo Bills @ LA Rams
ATS Pick: LA RAMS +2.5

Both teams come into the season with high expectations. Some are even crowning the Bills as Superbowl Champs even before week 1. I look at the regular season in terms of quarters. Meaning teams go on streaks and slides, ups and downs as the grueling season goes forward. It’s my expectations that the Bills may start out the season a little bit slow and pick up steam into the second half of the season. The continued absence of cornerback Tre’Davious White hampers the Bills secondary unit especially against a great passing attack. In general Buffalo has a great defense, but their corners can and will be attacked this game. Covering a very good set of Rams receivers starting with Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and newly added Allen Robinson will be troublesome for the Bills corners. Robinson should have a solid season and this may be a breakout game for him as much of the Bills defensive attention will shade Kupp’s direction. Robinson was never able to meet his true potential with subpar quarterbacking in Chicago. Expect the Rams to have a balanced attack both running and passing.

On the Rams defensive side of the ball I expect them to harass QB Josh Allen with continued pressure throughout the game. Clearly Allen possesses unique escape-ability and will have some success running and throwing to his wideouts. The loss of offensive coordinate Brian Daboll, who did an excellent job of working with Allen’s skillset will take some adjusting to early into the season. The Rams were third in the league last season with 50 sacks through the regular season. I expect those efforts to continue into 2022. On the outside CB Jalen Ramsey has the ability to lock down star wideout Stefon Diggs, so any success will have to be found with their other offensive weapons.
All in all, I expect the Rams to solidly defend their “first game status as World Champs” and defeat Buffalo in what should be an exciting game.

PICK: RAMS +2.5

[Vegas Max Bets]

Bumping the tread. Rams +2.5 over Buffalo for my first game of the season. Read analysis above. Let's go!

[Vegas Max Bets]

Bills 31 Rams 10

Stafford not playing in the preseason and having his throws limited in camp really showed up this game. Only 2 targets to newly acquired Robinson?! Moving onto Sunday's slate. Will have 4 to 5 games.

[Vegas Max Bets]

Week 1 Sunday - may add 1 or 2 more later-
1 to 5 unit scale / game
Vegasinsider odds

Pittsburgh +6 over Cincinnati (5 units) best bet
New England over Miami +3.5 (4 units)
Las Vegas +3.5 over LA Chargers (3 units)

Analysis to follow

[Vegas Max Bets]

Week 1 Sunday - may add 1 or 2 more later-
1 to 5 unit scale / game
Vegasinsider odds

Pittsburgh +6 over Cincinnati (5 units) best bet
New England over Miami +3.5 (4 units)
Las Vegas +3.5 over LA Chargers (3 units)

Analysis to follow

Pittsburgh +6 over Cincinnati (5 units, top week 1 pick)

The Steelers come into the game improved on both sides of the ball. Last year, with an aging Roethlisberger, their passing attack was held back with too many short passes and lack of pocket elusiveness, while opposing defenses teed off on the running game. This year we get to see Mitch Trubisky get another nod as QB1 and I expect him to be a significant improvement over what we saw from Big Ben last season. On the receiving side of the ball the Steelers have a talented trio of Claypool, Johnson, and rookie Pickens, all three of which arguably match up with the talented trio of receivers on the opposing sideline. I look for second year TE Pat Freiermuth to be a big target in the passing game as well, while building off of a successful year one. Further expect the Steelers to run the ball early and often (of course) as well as utilize RB1 Harris in the passing attack.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Steelers were tops in the league in rushing the passer last season with the likes of Cameron Heyward and TJ Watt and I expect this to continue this year. Additionally, they’ve added some help here with Myles Jack (LB) and Larry Ogunjobi (DE) former Bengals. I look for the Steelers to make a statement game in week 1, and even have a good shot at winning this game straight-up. Coach Tomlin and Mitch Trubisky will make it a point to show they have a new identity outside the now retired Ben Roethlisberger.

On the other side, the Bengals come in with a lot of pressure to carry over their success from the prior year. It’s easy to forget now, but although the Bengals had a highly successful season, they didn’t start the season out fast. On the flip side, the Steelers went into Buffalo week one and beat an extremely talented Bills team. Bengals QB Joe Burrow, just like Rams QB Stafford played 0 snaps in the preseason. No game action preceding week one can hurt the offensive rhythm, similarly to what we witnessed with Rams and Stafford against the Bills Thursday night.

Lastly, there’s this stat: Super Bowl losers are a disastrous 4–18 against the spread (ATS) this century in their following game, including just 9–13 straight-up.

Pittsburgh +6 (5 units)

[Vegas Max Bets]

Week 1 Sunday Games Recap (added 2 more since last post)

1 to 5 unit scale / game
Vegasinsider odds

Pittsburgh +6 over Cincinnati (5 units) best bet
New England over Miami +3.5 (4 units)
Las Vegas +3.5 over LA Chargers (3 units)

Adding:
Atlanta +5.5 over New Orleans (4 units)
Chicago +6.5 over San Fran (3 units)

[Vegas Max Bets]

Pretty good Week 1 Sunday:
WIN Pittsburgh +6 (5 units best bet) *Nailed the Pittsburgh game. Read analysis above.
WIN Atlanta +5.5 (4 units)
WIN Chicago +6.5 (3 units)
LOSS New England (4 units)
LOSS Vegas (3 units)

3-2 +5 units

[Vegas Max Bets]

MNF:

Seattle +7 over Denver (4 units)

First time HC + new QB going up against previous team (away) in week 1. I'll take the +7 anyday.

[Vegas Max Bets]

Week 1 and YTD Summary: 4-3 (+9 units)

LOSS Rams +2.5 (no units posted)
WIN: Steelers +6 (5 units, best bet, nailed the analysis)
LOSS: Raiders +3.5 (3 units)
LOSS: Patriots +3.5 (4 units)
WIN: Bears +6.5 (3 units)
WIN: Falcons (4 units)
WIN: Seahawks +7 (4 units)


On to Week 2

[Vegas Max Bets]

Week 2:

Locking in NY Jets +6 over Cleveland (5 units)

[Vegas Max Bets]

Week 2 update:

No play on tonight's TNF game.

Continuing on to Sunday where I have several game I like already.

Previously locked in Jets +6 (5 units)

YTD ATS: 4-3 +9 units

[Vegas Max Bets]

Week 2:

Jets +6 over Cleveland (5 units, best bet)
Carolina +2 over NY Giants (4 units)
New England -2 over Pittsburgh (3 units)
Baltimore -3.5 over Miami (4 units)
San Fran -8.5 over Seattle (3 units)
Denver -9.5 over Houston (3 units)

MNF: Tennessee +10 over Buffalo (3 units)
In addition there's a couple of other games we are monitoring.

[Vegas Max Bets]

Adding: Washington +1 over Detroit (3 units)

[Vegas Max Bets]

MNF Card:

Titans +10 (3 units) over Bills
Eagles -2.5 (3 units) over Vikings

I forgot to post Arizona +5.5 before kickoff on the forum here. My up to date picks can be found on my twitter page if you're interested.

[Vegas Max Bets]

Week 2: 5-5
YTD: 9-8 +9 units
YTD Best Bets: 2-0 +10 units

Week 3 early picks. Locking in these spreads.

Colts +6.5 over Chiefs (5 units, best bet)
Raiders -1 over Titans (4 units)
TNF: Steelers +4.5 over Browns (4 units)

More to come.

[Vegas Max Bets]

Unsurprisingly the Raiders spread has steam rolled to -2.5 today. Locked in -1 yesterday.

Colts +6.5 remains unchanged. However once WR1 Pittman and star LB Leonard are confirmed as active, I expect the spread to drop to 6 and possibly 5.5 depending on sharp action.

Steelers locked in +4.5, now up to 5.5, which surprises me. The Browns have a great running game and are average elsewhere.

Lastly: Locking in Cincinnati -4.5 over NY Jets (4 units)

[Vegas Max Bets]

Adding Green Bay +1 over TB (3 units)

[Vegas Max Bets]

Week 3 Sunday Slate:

Colts +6.5 over Chiefs (5 units, best bet)
Panthers +2.5 over Saints (3 units)
Bengals -4.5 over Jets (4 units)
Packers +1 over Bucs (3 units)
Broncos +1.5 over 49ers (4 units)
Raiders -1 over Titans (4 units)

Be back for MNF. GL all!

Follow me on twitter for current updates.

[Vegas Max Bets]

Week 3 Sunday: 6-1 +19 units
YTD: 15-10 +24 units
Best Bets YTD: 3-0 +15 Units

✅️ Panthers +2.5 +3U
✅️Broncos +1.5 +4U
✅️ Packers +1 +3U
✅️Bengals -4.5 +4U
✅️ Colts +6.5 +5U Best Bet
✅️Dolphins +4.5 4U
👎 Raiders -1 -4U

[Vegas Max Bets]

Looking at Week 4 there's a couple of games that jump out.

Earlier locked in Bengals -1.5 over Dolphins for TNF. This will be Best Bet of the week. Spread is now -3 and I'd still lay the 3 with confidence.

MNF I will follow up with a pick on Giants vs Cowboys.

[Vegas Max Bets]

MNF: NY Giants -1 over Dallas (3 units)