Week 16 plays and discussion

[lid73]

44-42-3

Yup, that's my crappy record. Went 1-3 last week. If I am remembering my weeks correctly, this is the worst week I have had this year. I have had a few 4-5 weeks, some 3-2 weeks, and several push weeks. one really good week at 6-1. Anyway, this season, I seem destined to be at close to 50%. The weird part is that I am still showing a profit. A tiny profit, but plus money nonetheless. I am pretty happy with the way I have managed my money this year. Line shopping has been very good to me.

OK. This week:

NYJ @ MIA - Not going to worry about the line here. I am taking the Jets on the money line. Miami is not playing well. they have had some upsets recently whic I feel makes them overvalued. The Jets have a quality D that has played well of late. Also, this team is not one that will quit. I just see them playing hard until the end of the season. I also am starting to feel that they will have momentum and value coming into next year. I think the Jets will fly into Miami, and pound the fish into submission. (note the brilliant play on the word Jets in the previous sentence)

Cin +3 Den - Again, I am going to play only the money line here. Cinci has too many weapons for Denver to keep up. While Cutler has looked good, I think the Def coordinators will start to get to him. Cutler has a cannon for an arm, and threw a ball accurately for over 60 yards last week. He will eventually be VERY good. But, right now, Denver D will not be able to slow down Cinci. Cinci is also coming off a loss, and if this team has any heart, they should hang 35 on the Broncs.

SD -4 Sea - Seattle seems to have packed it in for the season. I am worried that SD may try to rest some people, but their second string could lay a whipping on the hawks. Seneca is still playing inconsistently, and I can't see them hanging with the Chargers. I am a huge Bears fan, but the Charger team is scary good. This might be the superbowl champ this year.

Seriously considering Baltimore, TB, Arizona, and Philly. As of now, no bet. Opinions welcome and appreciated. Good luck folks.

[lid73]

Woops, I meant to say Hasselbeck. He didn't look so hot when he came back, and has been inconsistent.

[Checkerboard]

I like DEN in this spot. I think CIN had the wind knocked out of their sails a bit by IND and, after some winning that can take your edge away and then to go on the road into a wildcard thirsty mile high situation, I dunno, I could be wrong about this but I just like the Broncos here. It'll probably be cold too, It's snowing so much there tonight, they postponed the friggin basketball game and last time I checked the hardwood is indoors!
I'm taking SEA because I believe they're a quality dog in a good situation. They're a good home team gunning for a playoff spot playing against Marty ball at rest. San Diego has
not pounded better-than-500 teams when on the road for the most part . . .
GL with the NYJ play I very lightly lean MIA, just because they got blown out (embarassed) last week and have a chance to make amends and play divisional spoiler in a classically close matchup, at least that's how I think of Jets
Dolphins games . . . Jets lost last year in Miami around the same time of year for what it's worth. And Miami lost in NY.
I'd have to check but, off the top, I kind of think of it as a home team wins kind of rivalry . . .
GL also with those other plays you're considering, if you should end up playing any of them . . . and have great holiday lid73 and keep up the good posting, I like your posts
and look forward to reading them . . . just this time that I'm
versus on most of your picks there's been weeks where I see eye to eye much more with you . . . but that's what this forum's all about IMO . . . getting the discussion going so we can help each other determine our plays . . .

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Lid, love your thoughts on the games this week... This looks like a nice board that is ready for the taking...
I REALLY am liking the Jets on the ML on Christmas Day down in South Beach! As I said in my other post, I believe the Jets will get one of the two wild card spots in the AFC... If they can win this game against Miami, they have Oakland @ home for the last game of the season... They will be totally focused on winning this game knowing that they don't have to play their best and can still beat OAK... Pennington has looked great as of late and has shown the shoulder problems will not hold him back! J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!
I respectfully disagree with your play on the Bengals... I believe the Broncos will look at what the Colts did to the Bengals on Monday Night and exploit their weaknesses over the middle and the underneath routes... Cutler being able to throw the short underneath routes will give him confidence...
I am on the Chargers as well bro... The Seahawks won't have an answer for LT and if Rivers is on then this one could get out of hand... HASSLEDBACK is good for a few INT'S and believe Merriman and Phillips will get good pressure on him... Rivers definitely had his worst game of his career last Sunday. I look for him to bounch back hitting Gates early and often!

HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO EVERYONE!
Let's make some money this weekend!

[lid73]

Checkerboard:

Thanks for the kiind words. I am beginning to view you as my nemesis. It seems like when you are one the other side, I end up holding the bag. The money that was in it is gone, but I have the bag. I totally see your point about Cinci. Indy really whallopped them last week. But I see Cinci as a team that has rebounded pretty well this season. I also like to play against new QBs after a few good games. Cutler has played well, but I feel like new QBs always do better than people think at first because noone gives them credit. But as the defenses start picking up their characteristics, it becomes very difficult for them to keep winning. I honestly see this game as a tossup. But, since the money line is at +150, I am happy with what I consider to be a 50% chance of winning.

With regard to Seattle, I think that the team is still being overvalued. At the beginning of the year, I thought this was a playoff team. In fact, the inertia from that initial judgment made me bet them a couple of times when I shouldn't have. While a home doggy is always nice, I just don't see how you can call them a quality team at this point.

Well, like you said we don't see it the same way this week. I definitely appreciate your feedback, however. I enjoy the discussion. This season has been very ho-hum for me. I need to spend some time in the off season to figure out what the hell I am doing. Happy Holidays to you and yours and good luck this week.

Peyton:

The Jets wild card hopes definitely figure into my pick. Seattle has been playing so poorly in my opinion, that SD should roll them. Looks like you all hate my Cinci pick, and that makes me nervous, but I am going to stick to my guns. Happy Holidays to you and yours and good luck this week.

On a complete side note, this fake blog by Drew Bledsoe is hilarious. TonyHomo.com: Drew Bledsoe's Blog.

[RageWizard]

hey Lid73 love the NYJ's pick. Don't really have an feeling one way or the other about Cin/Den, but I think that the S.D./Sea game at -4 is a little fishy to me. Seattle just doesn't have it anymore. I mean they lost to S.F. twice this year. I'm laying off that one.

My picks are as follows:

Pit -3.5 Revenge factor and the fact that the steelers have yet to be eliminated from the playoffs will bring home the money for me on this one.

N.O. +3 Saints layed an egg last sunday against a skins teams that is actually playing pretty well lately. They should have beat Philly if it weren't for a couple of bad decisions by the quaterback. The saints will be itching to get back to normal and the giants have a lousy secondary in which to exploit. Add the 3 points and take the easy winner.

Ind -9 Indy will be hearing the ghost of seasons past were they play great until the last couple of games in a season then rest everybody including the chearleaders, only to lose in their first playoff game. This year they will try something different by playing the starters the entire game in both of their last two games. Also houston doesn't run that well so they will only be able to pick up about 150 yards on indy's defense before Peyton puts the game way out of reach and David Carr has to throw.

[nevadaside]

lid73:
likin your NYJ on the ML & SD plays, just worried about SEA stepping up out of the blue though, will probably join you on those but haven't committed yet. That CINCY game is a toss up IMO......hope it works for you cause I hate freakin DEN.

GL with 'em all lid......Happy Holidays as well.