NFL Week 14
YTD 11-11
KC -3 Chiefs have a stellar record in the month of December at Arrowhead and with Green back under center I expect the Chiefs offense to stat clicking. Ravens D is stout no doubt, but as good as they have played with the majority of their games at home, now they are the 2nd game in on the road trip and I expect to see a decline. Baltimore's offense should have problems moving the ball as they do on the road and the inability to do so should spell a win for the Chiefs in Arrowhead.
Houston PK Bad spot for the Titans today as after two 4th quarter victories they go to Houston in a letdown spot. Lets not forget the last 28-22 loss the Texans suffered i nTennessee. Well in that game Houston had 6 turnovers, Vince was held to 7/15 for 87 yards and none fo the Titans rushed for more than 50 yards. Rosenfels had to relieve Carr and threw for 3 TD's, Walli Lundy rushed for over 100 yards and Johnson & Daniels had 9 receptions each with a combined 3 TD's. Despite all of that Texans lost by 6. Today the Texans elminate the turnovers and exploit a very poor pass defense to get a rare win for the Houston Texans.
Oakland +11 As bad as the perception for the Raiders is, their defense has been very solid. They have held opponents over the last 5 games to an average of 17 ppg. Chad Johnson mentioned today about how the Raiders play a lot of M2M coverage and while that may seem like a gift to the core of Cinci's wideouts, it will help spy Rudi & Carson. I look back at the Carolina/Cincinnati game and how they struggled to score on their defense and I think this is a comparable matchup on defense. With a total set at 40.5 I see the points as the play.
Washington +1 Eagles beat the Panthers on Monday Night, but it was not because of the QB play of Jeff Garcia. He actually played poorly, throwing jump balls to his receivers hoping they come down with them. Philly still has no run game as they rely solely upon Westbrook and without McNabb, the Eagles West Coast offense is just not ran the same.
Tampa Bay +4 He basically is their offense. Tampa's Cover 2 will give Vick problems all day long. You see Vick cannot read defenses and TB will disguise them. Vick has even admitted that he doesn't study game film. Well the proof is in the pudding, look at how inconsisntent this Falcon team is. All the Bucs have to do is contain Vick in the pocket. Its no secret, and TB run defense is good enough to contain Dunn. Not stop, but contain him. Sure Gradkowski raises some problems being a rook in the NFL, but after watching him for most of the season there is potential in this kid and he seems to progress every game. Bucs got shutout at Heinz, but lets face it, this Falcons defense is not the Steeler defense who have yet to allow a 100 yard rushing game this season.
I have watched Vick all year and between the 20's he can move the ball because the defense is spaced out more. Have you bothered to take a look at the Falcons Red Zone Efficiency? Bottom line to me is this:Atlanta is an up and down team who relies on Vick to win the game with his legs. Atlanta I do not think will take TB lightly and will stick with the Option offense, while getting Dunn his 25 touches. This game just has the look of a low scoring FG game and in these situations I would give a slight edge to the home team. I honestly think this line should be Atlanta -1 or a PK. Falcons minus Abraham & Kearney have not had any success rushing the passer either. I also do not think TB is as horrible as they have seemed, although Dallas & Pittsburgh handled them rather easily, and Atlanta is never as good as they seem. I am playing the odds with the home dog.
KC -3 Chiefs have a stellar record in the month of December at Arrowhead and with Green back under center I expect the Chiefs offense to stat clicking. Ravens D is stout no doubt, but as good as they have played with the majority of their games at home, now they are the 2nd game in on the road trip and I expect to see a decline. Baltimore's offense should have problems moving the ball as they do on the road and the inability to do so should spell a win for the Chiefs in Arrowhead.
Houston PK Bad spot for the Titans today as after two 4th quarter victories they go to Houston in a letdown spot. Lets not forget the last 28-22 loss the Texans suffered i nTennessee. Well in that game Houston had 6 turnovers, Vince was held to 7/15 for 87 yards and none fo the Titans rushed for more than 50 yards. Rosenfels had to relieve Carr and threw for 3 TD's, Walli Lundy rushed for over 100 yards and Johnson & Daniels had 9 receptions each with a combined 3 TD's. Despite all of that Texans lost by 6. Today the Texans elminate the turnovers and exploit a very poor pass defense to get a rare win for the Houston Texans.
Oakland +11 As bad as the perception for the Raiders is, their defense has been very solid. They have held opponents over the last 5 games to an average of 17 ppg. Chad Johnson mentioned today about how the Raiders play a lot of M2M coverage and while that may seem like a gift to the core of Cinci's wideouts, it will help spy Rudi & Carson. I look back at the Carolina/Cincinnati game and how they struggled to score on their defense and I think this is a comparable matchup on defense. With a total set at 40.5 I see the points as the play.
Washington +1 Eagles beat the Panthers on Monday Night, but it was not because of the QB play of Jeff Garcia. He actually played poorly, throwing jump balls to his receivers hoping they come down with them. Philly still has no run game as they rely solely upon Westbrook and without McNabb, the Eagles West Coast offense is just not ran the same.
Tampa Bay +4 He basically is their offense. Tampa's Cover 2 will give Vick problems all day long. You see Vick cannot read defenses and TB will disguise them. Vick has even admitted that he doesn't study game film. Well the proof is in the pudding, look at how inconsisntent this Falcon team is. All the Bucs have to do is contain Vick in the pocket. Its no secret, and TB run defense is good enough to contain Dunn. Not stop, but contain him. Sure Gradkowski raises some problems being a rook in the NFL, but after watching him for most of the season there is potential in this kid and he seems to progress every game. Bucs got shutout at Heinz, but lets face it, this Falcons defense is not the Steeler defense who have yet to allow a 100 yard rushing game this season.
I have watched Vick all year and between the 20's he can move the ball because the defense is spaced out more. Have you bothered to take a look at the Falcons Red Zone Efficiency? Bottom line to me is this:Atlanta is an up and down team who relies on Vick to win the game with his legs. Atlanta I do not think will take TB lightly and will stick with the Option offense, while getting Dunn his 25 touches. This game just has the look of a low scoring FG game and in these situations I would give a slight edge to the home team. I honestly think this line should be Atlanta -1 or a PK. Falcons minus Abraham & Kearney have not had any success rushing the passer either. I also do not think TB is as horrible as they have seemed, although Dallas & Pittsburgh handled them rather easily, and Atlanta is never as good as they seem. I am playing the odds with the home dog.
