Help a newb

the boss · 10-24-05, 12:33 PM

You can really see movement early so you can then decide what to do. Pit is already at 9 so you may want to jump on it now. I would not be suprised to see it at 10 by Sunday. I would think that Houston total will go down as well. Just keep an eye out for movement. It could move in your favor but it rarely does.

Razz · 10-24-05, 12:34 PM

Normally lines move in college more, and if I think the lines are moving with the side I like (generally favorites or big name teams), I take those games on Tuesday or Wednesday. If I think the line is moving the other way, obviously I'll wait until Friday or Saturday.
Generally, NFL lines do not move as much until later in the week, so whenever you take them will be fine. The exception is if I like someone -2.5 or +3.5, or on some other key number, I take it early in the week.
Congrats on 2-0 day yesterday. Welcome to the forum, Shawn. That under in Houston looks good to me too.

Shawn01 · 10-24-05, 12:47 PM

Thanks guys, and thanks for the congrats Razz, but I made two easy picks. The under on Chicago-Baltimore was too easy at 30.5, what with those two teams having lousy offenses and great defenses. The rain helped too

The Colts covering against Houston seemed obvious too, but Houston made me sweat for awhile.

My early leanings are:
Cincy -8 (home vs. Pack)
Dallas -8 (home vs. 'Zona)
Pittsburgh -8.5 (home vs. Ravens MNF)
Under on Cleveland v. Houston (37.5)
If the total on S.D. v. K.C. goes up I may take an under on that too. It's at 50 now.
Hmmm. Houston -2 over the Browns? The Browns stink, but they're not winless. I may take that play as well.

why · 10-24-05, 01:26 PM

If I see something I really like, I jump it early as I am pretty confident it will move against me if I don't. I like what I like, I don't like 2nd guessing myself, good to play on gut sometimes.

If your not sure, its best to wait until you can make a confident decision.

Confidence is very important and luck is very nice, in fact I like luck the most!

Shawn01 · 10-24-05, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by Shawn01

My early leanings are:
Cincy -8 (home vs. Pack)
Dallas -8 (home vs. 'Zona)
Pittsburgh -8.5 (home vs. Ravens MNF)

They've already moved. Dallas is now -9, Cincy -8.5 and Pittsburgh is -9. I did bet already and got locked in at -8 for Cincy and -8.5 for Dallas.

kdmfox · 10-24-05, 07:23 PM

I hate tying my $$$ up all week ... Anyone bet the futures on any sports? ... That must be torture looking at your bet sit there forever.

Shawn01 · 10-24-05, 09:18 PM

Well, I'm new to wagering so the waiting is not too bad. I decided when I started this that I would do it for the following reasons:
1. I do not have an addictive personality
2. When my money is gone it's gone and I'm done
3. I won't beat myself up over bets I thought about but didn't make, which would have won (UCLA over Oregon St. springs to mind)
4. The odds are against me ultimately, so if I win I'll appreciate the fact that I'm sticking it to The Man, at least briefly.

Although, waiting almost a week is hard. I took the 3rd quarter over in the MNF game (7.5 pts). I'll be in bed before I know whether or not I won that.

smoothsuave · 10-24-05, 10:17 PM

Play some parlays cheap bet low risk/ high win

Senator7 · 10-25-05, 12:17 AM

A good rule of thumb is that Joe Public loves favorites and overs. If you want to bet a favorite or an over, do it early in the week on Tuesday or Wednesday. If you're sitting on the underdog or the under, play it as late in the week as possible, maybe even on gameday. There's going to be certain circumstances where this doesn't apply, but its generally a very effective rule of thumb.

Senator 7

Shawn01 · 10-25-05, 04:13 AM

Thanks for the tips. I did go ahead and lay my NFL week 8 picks early. I guess how well I do will determine whether I was smart to do that or not. I appreciate the help guys.

Shawn01 · 10-30-05, 10:36 AM

It looks like I did well to place my wagers early in the week. I got Cincy at -8 (line is now -9.5), Dallas at -8.5 (line now -9.5), Steelers at -9 (line now -11) and Browns-Texans under at 37.5 (total now 36). All worked to my advantage. The line/total in my other bets stayed the same.

onlooker · 10-30-05, 12:38 PM

Im against Cincy and Dallas today, waiting on it to move up more.

Good job on getting the better lines early in the week.

Shawn01 · 10-30-05, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by onlòóker

Im against Cincy and Dallas today, waiting on it to move up more.

Looks like we both broke even on those two games.

Good job on getting the better lines early in the week.

Thanks.

Brick Tamland · 10-31-05, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by Illusion

If I like a favorite I pounce on it early. I usually bet dogs closer to gametime since the general public drives the line in my favor closer to gametime.

There is no way to know where the line is gonna go. If you could do that youd be rich. Illusion's advice is the best answer.