Razz's Weekend Plays, 10/22-10/23

[Razz]

Actually made a very small profit in college last week, despite tough loss on 8* Michigan, and had another great week in the NFL.

Here are four early looks for NFL Sunday.

Giants -2 vs. Broncos - will be at least a 5*
Raiders -3 even vs. Bills - will be at least a 3*
Dolphins -1.5 vs. Chiefs - will be at least a 2*
Steelers +1.5 @ Bengals - will be at least a 2*

[picantel]

those are some ballzy picks. I know the dolphins are better at home but the chiefs have alot more talent. All of those games to me are more of a coin toss. I think this is the worst week for picking I have seen and I will probably be going light.

[Razz]

Weekday Play

Here is my lone weekday play.

Thursday 10/20
I am waiting to assign a star-rating and point spread to this game, because I want to see what the line does. I copied my writeup from the thread entitled Virginia Tech vs. Maryland.

Maryland + vs. Virginia Tech
As much as I love Virginia Tech (I picked them to win it all preseason), I pinpointed two games that I thought they could lose that few people were expecting. The first was their opener at NC St., because I felt the Wolfpack would be more prepared early in the season, especially with Vick's inexperience. Indeed, NC St. outgained the Hokies by about 200 yards, but failed to win, and only pushed/lost to the spread (depending on what line was available).
The second was Maryland, for a plethora of reasons, starting with Maryland's record at home under Friedgen. He will remember last year, when VT was up 38-3 late in the first half, and went out of their way to kick a field goal when coaches' etiquette dictated running the clock out. He played it off as being no big deal because of his longstanding relationship with Frank Beamer. Still, he has been simmering inside, and will have his team superbly prepared for this game.
Also, Virginia Tech will not be looking to this game nearly as much. Their next two games are at home against #13 Boston College and #6 Miami. Then, they travel to Charlottesville to face rival #23 Virginia. It's easy to see them looking past this game.
Virginia Tech has played three road games this season: the aforementioned game at NC St. which they deserved to lose, at Duke, which I disregard, and at West Virginia. They won by 17 in Morgantown, largely because of several Mountie injuries, including starting QB Bednarik. This one won’t be as easy.
Virginia Tech 24, Maryland 21

[Razz]

Opinions on In-state teams

Thursday 10/20
Weak Opinion: Florida International +8.5 @ Troy
The problem with this game is that Troy isn’t good enough to beat anyone badly, and Florida International isn’t good enough to beat anyone (have never won a lined road game). Luckily they don’t have to in order to bring home the money. Thirteen turnovers in FIU’s last two road conference games makes this line slightly higher than it should be.
Troy 28, FIU 23

Friday 10/21
Strong Opinion: UAB -1 vs. Southern Mississippi
There’s a reason this isn’t a rated play, namely that I don’t bet on a favorite that has never beaten the team it is playing. That is the case here, as So. Miss. has won all five meetings in their series with UAB. Nonetheless, there is a good reason to be on UAB here. There is no one in the nation, except maybe Alabama, that UAB would rather beat than Southern Miss.
UAB’s last home game was a loss to hapless SMU. They followed that by badly outplaying Marshall (outgained Herd by nearly 200 yards), but managing to lose 20-19. Still, UAB is the better team this season, and has all the motivation in the world. QB Hackney makes the difference.
UAB 27, So. Miss 21

Opinion: Alabama -3 vs. Tennessee
There are several problems with taking the Crimson Tide, but I feel like Alabama is simply the stronger team.
Most people don’t realize how big a loss Tyrone Prothro was to the Tide. He did everything for this team (WR, KR, PR, RB, QB, as well as being a team leader) Was Alabama’s first game without him a warning about future offensive struggles? Maybe, but I think it was more of a look-ahead to this week, combined with an inspired Ole Miss performance.
The other negative is Tennessee’s recent dominance of Alabama. They have beaten the Tide 9 of the past 10 years, and it is a visitor series - the home team has only covered one of the past 13 games in this series. Other trends point to the Vols, but they don’t show how the anemic Tennessee offense is going to move the ball on the best defense in the nation.
If given an opportunity, Alabama will run this score up. This is the first trip Phil Fulmer has taken to Tuscaloosa since it was proven that he was a leak in the NCAA investigations that landed the Tide on probation. Don’t look for Tennessee to be able to come back from a big deficit against this defense like they did against a mediocre LSU defense.
Alabama 21, Tennessee 13

Weak Opinion: Auburn +6.5 @ LSU
The recovery this Auburn team has made after losing their four premier players in the first round of the draft after last season has been amazing. They come into this game as a better team than LSU. Alas, there is a problem. LSU dominates the Tigers at home.
Jamarcus Russell made a lot of mistakes last week against a bad Florida defense. It’s hard to expect him to do much better this week against a very good Auburn defense.
The Tiger offense has been coming around, but still may struggle in a night game in Baton Rouge. At night, this is one of the toughest stadiums in the nation to play in. Nonetheless, Auburn’s passing game may shred the weak LSU secondary.
LSU 17, Auburn 14

[Razz]

Saturday

Ok, here are Saturday’s plays. Weird card this week, as I couldn’t find anything that completely stood out, but found a lot of plays that I ranked similarly in strength.
After a miserable start, things have been going slightly better in college, as two of the last three weeks have turned out positive. Unfortunately, the bigger plays have been the ones losing, so the units are much worse than normal for five games under .500. I guess that is part of the reason that no plays are clear above the others, as has been the case in the past.

NCAA Football Overall (72-77-0, -71.70*)
NCAAF Sides (52-56, -58.50*)

5* Wyoming +3.5 @ Colorado St.
Historically, teams with 17+ returning starters that are coming off consecutive ATS losses are a good bet. The reason for this is experienced teams are usually quick to bounce back from bad performances, and they also begin to get more line value than a team of their caliber should be getting.
The problem with Wyoming the past couple weeks has been their inability to run the ball combined with QB Bramlett’s inefficiency. Don’t expect Bramlett to continue to be mistake-prone (6 INTs, 3 fumbles last two weeks) here against a very average Ram defense.
Colorado St. hasn’t been performing well either, and had a startlingly bad rushing performance against a weak BYU defense last week (Bell only ran for 36 yards).
Wyoming has the far superior defense here (giving up 118 fewer yards per game than CSU). They will be able to contain Bell and the Ram passing game, while the offense gets untracked.
This is a dog series (10-2 last 12 meetings). Wyoming gets revenge from last year on the road, where they have covered their last six.
Wyoming 31, Colorado St. 24

5* Tulsa -14.5 vs. SMU
Tulsa seeks revenge from last year’s OT loss at SMU. They have the weapons to get it in a big way behind QB Smith and RB Parrish. They have led a revamped Hurricane attack which has beaten the spread by 96.5 points the last six weeks. Tulsa’s special teams are also far superior (Davis set record for kick-return TDs last season, and had another last week).
The Ponies have no running game, and QB Romo has been inconsistent, throwing four interceptions last week against a pathetic East Carolina defense the week after a good outing in upset of UAB.
SMU is one of the worst road teams in all of college football, covering only 6 of their last 21. It’s going to be difficult for them to compete with an angry Tulsa team destroying every weak sister it meets.
Tulsa 48, SMU 21

4* Arizona St. -10 -105 @ Stanford
Stanford either looks horrible in playing badly (giving up over 450 yards in loss to Navy, loss to Division I-AA UC-Davis, and getting out-gained by nearly 400 yards at home against Oregon), or looks good in playing badly (SU road wins over Washington St. and Arizona, one of which saw them gain less than 200 total yards. They won because of a +7 turnover margin).
Arizona St. has played a brutal schedule so far, and a bye week and a bevy of lesser opponents is exactly what this team needs to resume their winning ways. Sam Keller took full advantage of the bye week, as he is now healthy again, and ready to shred a horrendous defense.
Arizona St. 42, Stanford 20

4* Iowa -2.5 vs. Michigan
The Hawkeyes have the best home field ATS record in the country recently, a staggering 18-1 their last 19 at Kinnick Stadium. Michigan has been through a grueling schedule of tough games, and is due to be blown out here, especially on the road against a superior team.
Kirk Ferentz, quite possibly the best coach in the nation, has been fantastic in games his team plays with revenge. This is their lone game in that role this season, and his team will be fired up to face the Wolverines. They always are, as they have covered eight in a row in this series. Iowa fancies themselves as being on the same level as Michigan and Ohio St, as a perennial power, and this game means a lot to them.
The Iowa offense is back after struggling early in the season. RB Young (just under 400 yards last 3 games) is starting to complement QB Tate. This is bad news for a Michigan defense that is nowhere near the level of recent squads. Iowa gets it done.
Iowa 34, Michigan 24

4* Indiana +15.5 vs. Ohio St.
Ohio St. is one of the worst road favorites in the nation, covering only two of 14 in that role. They won’t be seeing the same old Indiana this year, as the Hoosiers are starting to upgrade under new HC Hoeppner, the former head man at Miami (OH).
Hoeppner has brought his potent offense with him, as QB Powers has already thrown for a school-record 20 TDs. They’ll need to put up some points against the Ohio St. defense, ranked 4th in the country. The Ohio St. offense is not anywhere near that level though. Last week, they didn’t even cross midfield against a mediocre at best Michigan St. defense until the 4th quarter, despite eventually winning 35-24.
The Hoosiers score enough to keep it close.
Ohio St. 28, Indiana 20

4* Texas -15.5 vs. Texas Tech
If Texas can continue passing the ball the way they have in recent weeks (25-29 last week), there is no team in the nation that can beat them. While that probably won’t continue against the more powerful defenses they will face, Texas Tech certainly does not qualify. Last year, without any sort of passing game, the Longhorns rolled behind a 368 rushing yard advantage.
This is possibly Texas’s strongest defense under Mack Brown, and Texas has figured out how to defend Mike Leach’s spread offense as well as anyone except Oklahoma. This is going to be by far the best defense TT QB Cody Hodges has seen. In the only game that is even comparable, Hodges went long stretches without moving the ball at Nebraska after TT scored a quick 21. The Red Raiders won that one 34-31. It will be hard to get 34 against this defense, and that still may not be enough to cover.
Texas 55, Texas Tech 27

3* Connecticut +3 -105 vs. Rutgers
Don’t take too much from Rutgers’ strong performance at Syracuse last week. Syracuse is one of the most offensive offenses in the league, and Rutgers scored twice on defense against them.
Last week’s win was Rutgers’ second in their last 23 conference road games. They have also never beaten Connecticut, 0-3 all-time, including a loss as an 18-point favorite.
The Scarlet Knights have switched to a freshman QB, and he threw three interceptions in the win last week. Meanwhile, UCONN is as potent as ever, and is capable of keeping up with Rutgers on the scoreboard.
This line has moved from Connecticut -1.5 to Rutgers -3 -115. In a game that figures to be close, I will gladly side with Connecticut, especially since they are coming home, where they have outscored their opponents 123-7.
Connecticut 28, Rutgers 24

3* Eastern Michigan +11 vs. Miami (OH)
These teams are starting to move in different directions. Eastern Michigan is no longer a point spread laughingstock, as they have covered 9 of 13. Meanwhile, Miami has only covered 2 of 7 overall, and 3 of 10 on the road.
Eastern Michigan’s offense matches up very well with Miami’s defense. EMU doesn’t really try to run the ball, but that is the strength of the Redhawk defense anyway. However, Miami (OH) can’t stop the pass (109th in nation). EMU QB Bohnet has been great at home, averaging 320 yards of total offense his last seven. He has a WR named Deslauriers that is nearly unstoppable (I learned this last year, on a game I was against EMU). The Eagles put enough points on the board to get at least a cover, if not the outright upset.
Miami (OH) 34, EMU 31

3* Nebraska +3 -115 @ Missouri
The problem with making Missouri a favorite over any capable offensive team is that the Tigers simply cannot stop anybody. This team has already given up 45 points at home to an underachieving New Mexico team and had no business winning last week against Iowa St.
Nebraska is finally making offensive strides, especially in the passing game, where they threw for 660 yards the past two weeks. And there is no comparing these defenses - Nebraska is allowing 15 ppg this year, while the Tigers have given up 36 ppg their last six.
Missouri is only 1-25 all-time against the Cornhuskers. They have only been favored one time in the 26-year history of this series. They lost that game by 21. Same here.
Nebraska 28, Missouri 20

3* Central Florida -5.5 vs. Tulane (Game moved to Friday)
Tulane, not very good to begin with, is absolutely worn out after a ridiculous schedule that has seen them log more miles than anyone except Hawaii this season (their 6 games have been played in 6 different stadiums). Now, they travel to a Central Florida team that is starting to find itself once again under the tutelage of George Leary. The Golden Knights have already beaten Marshall and Memphis by double digits at home.
Tulane has no running game, and is not prepared to stop UCF’s explosive attack.
Central Florida 38, Tulane 20

3* UTEP -12.5 vs. Marshall
The only reason this isn’t a huge play is the turnover-prone Miners may hand Marshall points. Still, that only serves to keep the line a touchdown less than it should be.
UTEP is averaging 39 ppg their last 15 games, and this is the kind of team they have been feasting on. The Herd are averaging only 16 points their last six games, and, since falling in their upset bud of Kansas St., they have struggled against porous defenses. They cannot catch up if they fall behind (out-gained by 200 yards in win last week, but won on strength of two blocked punts), which they should against the Miners.
UTEP 41, Marshall 17

2* Ball St. +8 @ Ohio
Since non-competitive games against major conference powers (outscored 157-3 @ Iowa,, Auburn, and Boston College) the Cardinals have rebounded nicely. The return of many of their suspended players has been a large key to this.
Ball St. now has better athletes, and the Bobcat O-line is banged up. Ohio brought in backup QB Jones last week, and he didn’t exactly light it up - only 3 completions for 23 yards in 16 attempts.
The Cardinals are not afraid of playing on the MAC road, as they pulled the upset at Western Michigan two weeks ago. This may be a repeat.
Ohio 21, Ball St. 20

1* Kansas St. +4.5 -105 vs. Texas A&M
At +3, I liked Kansas St., but not enough to bet them. Now, getting 4.5, I feel compelled to make a small play on them. The general public is overreacting to last week’s results, which saw Texas A&M thrash a terrible Oklahoma St. team, and Kansas St. get put in the blower by Texas Tech, who they always struggle with.
The problem with reacting this way is that A&M has been inconsistent all season. They have had two stellar performances, both at home against bad teams. After the first one, the Aggies struggled against I-AA SW Texas State (44-31) and Baylor (16-13), before getting pummeled by Colorado.
Texas A&M is 0-2 on the road this season. They found a way to blow their opener at Clemson in a game they should have won. Their other road game saw them give up over 400 passing yards to Colorado in a 41-20 final that was nowhere near as close as the final score indicated.
Basically, the Aggies are the much better offensive team, and the Wildcats are the far superior defensive team (they’ve allowed only 7 and 3 points their last two home games). I’m on the defensive home dog against a team that has only covered 2 of their last 13 road games.
Kansas St. 24, Texas A&M 21

NCAAF Totals (20-21-0, -13.20*)

3* Syracuse @ Pittsburgh Under 44

[Razz]

NFL Sunday and Monday

Love this week’s card. Will be editing and inserting write-ups throughout the week.

NFL Overall (41-24-0, +58.25*)
NFL Sides (26-15-0, +45.65*)

5* Giants -1.5 vs. Broncos
Whoa man. Who made this line? Did it really open at pick? Why are the Giants not 4?
While they have struggled a little on the road, the Giants have covered their three home games by 20, 13.5, and 17 points. They are scoring points at a surprising clip, including 37.6 in their three games in Giants Stadium. The defense is starting to catch up, as the G-Men held a potent Cowboys offense to only 16 points last week.
Last week, the Giants were sacked four times and turned it over four times. They still took the Boys to OT. On the other hand, the Broncos caught a break when Corey Dillon didn’t play, and Denver was able to get off to a quick start and then hang on against a beat-up Patriot team.
The Broncos secondary is searching for an identity, and the Giants have the weapons to throw the ball on any defense in the league. QB Eli Manning had outperformed his brother until last week, and he has the weapons to torch the Broncos defense in WRs Burress and Toomer and TE Shockey. The running game also has been typically productive in NY.
The Broncos are the most overrated team in the NFL, and this week could be a repeat of their opener at Miami (34-10 loss).
Giants 34, Broncos 20

4* Raiders -3 even vs. Bills
For whatever reason, maybe just the sheer length of the trip or some lack of focus, the Bills always play poorly on the road against the AFC West. They have certainly been bad so far this season on the road, with losses at Tampa (19-3) and New Orleans (19-7), neither of which saw them gain even 250 yards.
Kelly Holcomb sure has been receiving a lot of praise for his performance the last two weeks for someone who has only thrown for 137 and 164 yards. Now he leaves friendly Buffalo for Oakland, where the fans have never been pleasant to visitors.
The Bills are +8 this season in turnover margin, but Kerry Collins has shockingly been as solid as any QB in the league, throwing 150 passes before his first interception of the season last week. Without the other team shooting themselves in the foot, Buffalo will not generate enough points to get it done.
Raiders 27, Bills 17

3* Chargers +4 @ Eagles
After stumbling early, the Chargers appear to be a team headed back to the playoffs. In this matchup, they are in the unique position of having the superior offense, defense, and special teams, and still being more than a field goal underdog.
Offensively, they have the best player in the league in Tomlinson, and plenty of weapons around him which will help the Bolts put plenty of points on the board against an exposed Eagles defense, which has allowed 30+ points in consecutive games.
For years, teams were afraid to attack the vaunted Eagle secondary. Not anymore, as Bledsoe and company are the latest to throw the ball with ease against Philly in their rout in Dallas two weeks ago. The Eagles also can’t rush the passer any more, managing only three sacks their last four games, against stiffs such as Kerry Collins, Trent Green, and Drew Bledsoe. Brees will be able to sit back and find Gates and McCardell all day.
The Eagles offense is in disarray, as they rank last in the league in rushing, and are trying to count on a badly injured McNabb for all their scoring.
The Chargers are the best road team in football, going 10-0-2 against the number their last 12 games away from San Diego. Everyone remembers the last time the Bolts traveled to the northeast, when they pounded the Patriots 41-17. This one shouldn’t be that ugly for the home team, but the Chargers need the win more, and will get it.
Chargers 34, Eagles 27

3* Steelers +1.5 @ Bengals
Cincy has not been favored in this series since 1991.
With Roethlisberger back under center, it’s hard to pass on Pittsburgh here, as they have won their last nine road games, and Roethlisberger has never lost to anyone but New England. He will be ready to go in this important game, especially since it is being played in his home state.
Cincy has been winning with smoke and mirrors thus far this season, as their +16 turnover margin indicates. The Steelers defense, among the best in the league, should be able to contain the Bengal offense.
Here are some interesting numbers to back up the Steelers this week: Visitor is 11-2-1 ATS the last 14 Bengal games, Pittsburgh has covered 21 of 30 as a dog, and the Steelers are 17-6-1 against the number in October.
Steelers 24, Bengals 20

3* Ravens +1 @ Bears
The Ravens pitiful road performance (25-10 and 35-17 losses) this year is all that keeps this from being at the top of these plays. Still, Baltimore committed 31 penalties for 220 yards in those two games, and I expect a more fine-tuned effort this week against a beat up Bears team.
Chicago was without two starting offensive linemen last week, and they are both questionable this week. RB Jones is also hurting, and these people are all necessary to keep QB Orton safe against a swarming Raven defense. Offensively, Baltimore is starting to get some things accomplished. RB Taylor is complementing Jamal Lewis well, and Heap is back to his former self. Wright is making strides, and HC Billick won’t ask too much of him against a very good Bears defense.
Ravens 9, Bears 2

2* Dolphins -1.5 vs. Chiefs (downgraded to 1* because of time change)
This comes down to one thing - Miami will be ready for this game, and Kansas City won’t be. The Chiefs have played three straight home games, and have the Chargers next week. They won’t worry much with the Dolphins. Also, the Chiefs haven’t visited Miami in eight years, and the hot and humid weather may leave them surprised.
Miami will not be looking ahead to anything else. They have had consecutive poor performances, and HC Saban is not going to let that continue as the previous regime may have. Miami has been fabulous at home this season, with 34-10 and 27-24 wins over Denver and Carolina, respectively.
QB Frerotte will shake off the last two weeks, returning home to play a bad defense, and most importantly, a terrible secondary. Also, Ricky Williams may be able to contribute more to the running game this week in his second game back, and should be able to help spell RB Brown, who has been strong so far.
KC’s strength is in their rushing attack, but Miami has the second best rush defense in the NFL, and the 4th overall defense. Trent Green has been struggling this season, and may be forced into mistakes - Miami has forced six turnovers in their two home games.
Dolphins 30, Chiefs 21

2* Seahawks -3 -120 vs. Cowboys
The Cowboys are in a similar situation to the Bills here; that is, off consecutive home wins over division opponents, now taking to the non-division road. Dallas is 0-9 recently in this situation, and they may be playing the best team in the NFC this week.
Seattle has revenge from last year, when RB Jones ran wild for the Cowboys in a 43-39 victory. He may not be able to go this week, and if he does, it will be at much less than 100%.
Dallas’s defense has been much worse on the road (24.6 ppg) than at home (12.3 ppg), and Seattle has all the tools to exploit it.
Seahawks 31, Cowboys 20

2* Redskins -11.5 vs. 49ers
I hate to lay this number, but really feel I have no choice. Amazingly, the Redskins are at or near the top of the league in almost every category. Meanwhile, the 49ers are clueless on offense (31st) and defense (32nd). QB Rattay is gone, and rookie QB Smith could not be dealt a worse situation. He is making his first road start clear across the country behind a bad offensive line with no go-to weapons against possibly the best defense in the NFL, which will be steaming after giving up 21 and 28 points the last two games.
Washington has lost consecutive games they may not should have lost. They out-gained Denver 447-257 and Kansas City 398-274. They take out their frustrations on one of the worst teams in recent history.
Redskins 30, 49ers 0

1* Texans +16 vs. Colts
OK, this is the perfect trap game, but I don't feel comfortable putting more than 1* on it.

NFL Totals (15-9-0, +12.60*)

3* Chiefs @ Dolphins Over 42.5
2* Titans @ Cardinals Over 45
2* Jets @ Falcons Under 41 (Monday)

[EBone]

Nebraska......a dog to Missouri.....I think I'm living in bizarro world. Just goes to show how incredibly weak the Big 12 North really is.


E

[Razz]

E, as I mentioned in the writeup on Nebraska, the Huskers are 25-1 all-time against Missouri. Missouri has been favored once against Nebraska (last year), and they lost by 21.

College writeups are done. As always, any feedback is appreciated.

[bigpig19]

i like em razz. i think we will bust em right on out this weekend
total football for season
+19.6* w/consensus partner
+11.8* including 1st week without consensus partner
here are my plays

7* Iowa -2.5
6* Colorado -14'
4* FSU -29'
3* LSU -6

My personal plays ranked 1-13
1. Iowa -2'
2. Nebraska +2
3. Baylor +14
4. Colorado -14'
5. Alabama -3'
6. UTEP -13
7. UNC -1
8. UAB -1'
9. LSU -6
10. S. Carolina -8
11. SDSU -2'
12. Texas Tech +15
13. FSU -29'

NFL

1. Baltimore Pk
2. Miami -2
3. G. Bay -1'
4. Seattle -3
5. Pitt Pk

[thref23]

On the NFL picks...

I think the Giants/Ravens/Dolphins are risky pics this week. Partially based on gut feeling. Partially cause I only see so many road teams covering [edit I realize now this sentence makes no sense as the Giants/Dolphins are at home...don't know what I was thinking]

I'm also reluctant to pick Oakland, as even with their improvements since last year, they're still having trouble winning, and Randy Moss is listed as doubtful for the game. I actually like Buffalo in that game. Buffalo will be the more confident team IMO.

You make good points on the Steelers/Redskins. I'm not sure bout the Chargers. But there's a reason I'm winning parlays every weekend

Other than that all the games I endorse, including a couple you have listed, are listed in my thread.

[aje]

Razz, I noticed that you may have miss a QB injury for Connecticut. Which would explain the early 4.5 point line move.Their back up which started @ Cincinnati last saturday sustained a cracked bone in his left (non-throwing) wrist. Their starter which was injured against Syracuse should be out for atleast another month with a broken collarbone. I have no particular lean just some feedback.

[Razz]

Razz, I noticed that you may have miss a QB injury for Connecticut. Which would explain the early 4.5 point line move.Their back up which started @ Cincinnati last saturday sustained a cracked bone in his left (non-throwing) wrist. Their starter which was injured against Syracuse should be out for atleast another month with a broken collarbone. I have no particular lean just some feedback.

Thanks for the info. I am aware of the injury, and don't feel it hampers the Huskies enough for them to be an underdog in this game. I really do appreciate this kind of update though, as I have missed a couple similar things in the past.

[stump]

agree with you on Maryland, Wyoming, Arizona State, Ny Giants, also like the over Dallas/Seattle

gl

[moses millsap]

Good luck bro, thinking about Maryland plus the number tonight as well.

[Razz]

OK, I'm just going with a 2* on Maryland +10.5 tonight.

Also, here is Friday's action, updating because of that bitch Wilma.

NFL
1* Dolphins -1.5 - I've downgraded to a 1* because I'm afraid the Chiefs will be more prepared for this game with the time change.

3* Central Florida -5.5

[HAPPY BOY]

OK, I'm just going with a 2* on Maryland +10.5 tonight.

Also, here is Friday's action, updating because of that bitch Wilma.

NFL
1* Dolphins -1.5 - I've downgraded to a 1* because I'm afraid the Chiefs will be more prepared for this game with the time change.

3* Central Florida -5.5

Im a dolphin fan , Jason Taylor might not play now that game was shortened.

[why]

Come out of your shell Razz, makes some plays, lol. You play a lot of games, love the write-ups and gl.

[BuddyBear]

Good stuff Razz as usual. Personally, I can't imagine playing that many games...I would get rather nervous. I try to stick to a select few games a week in each league.

Anyway...I really like the Maryland pick. Just put it in...wish I had got it when it first opened up at +12.5. I got it at +10 today. 10 is still a safe number.

Nebraska and Eastern Michigan seem like solid picks to me...I'll get back to normal this weekend by betting against scUM and rooting against them at the same time....but I have a few disagreements with KSTATE and Miami. See both losing here and KSTATE badly at that.

Anyway...good luck!

[slacker00]

Razz, how can you pick so many games?!?!

I really really hate picking games when I haven't seen the team play. I should start a thread about this in the main forum. It seems so risky to pick so many games based on such incomplete information. Maybe once one has enough experience handicapping, one only needs to look at a few variables, such as injuries, history, and a few other miscellaneous tools.

I see you are going against my picks this week, taking Seattle -3 and Giants -2. I'm not sold on Seattle as a conference powerhouse. Yeah, they'll win the West, and probably get a first round bye, but let me see them beat a quality team. I think Dallas is coiled for a big game. Peerless Price is going to be lightning in a bottle, and I see Dallas running up the score on Seattle. Even more, the Dallas D will figure out Alexander, and Seattle will flounder without a running game. Hasselback won't beat Dallas with his arm, even with 8 in the box. I see Roy Williams playing basically a 5th LB position for 80% of the game, and "spying" Alexander. I wonder what kind of numbers I could get if I tease Dallas -14. But, I don't bet for real money.... Yet. Giants holding down the powerful Dallas offense last week? Julius Jones was out, and the way Parcells loves to run, it was like playing with one arm tied behind his back. Expect a sheer pounding by Denver. Plus, Manning will struggle against a quality Denver D. Manning is still basically a rookie, despite being a Manning.

[Razz]

Slacker, I understand your reasoning on the Cowboys, and actually decided earlier today to not actually bet the game myself, as the line was 3 -125 or 3.5 everywhere. I still lean to Seattle, but would retract the play if I didn't consider that unethical. I think you're in for a wakeup call on the Broncos though. I would honestly be surprised if the Giants won by less than 10.

I've seen every team I am betting on or against this season except Eastern Michigan, and I watched them last year, and from all accounts they have only improved.

[slacker00]

Awesome, Razz. You must have some kind of awesome sports package through your cable/satellite provider. I'm mostly stuck to watching national/regional games. I think next year, I've gotta look into getting NFL Sunday ticket. I'm an absolute NFL whore, and I'd just keep watching NFL games over and over if I could. Thanks for the info, sounds like you are a real pro.

As for the NFL games this weekend, I am chomping at the bit. I'm done analyzing the games, it's just time to see how they play out. My 3 big plays are in direct opposite to the way you are picking, so I'll post here on Monday, especially if I am wrong. You could be right about the Denver-NYG game. If I score with my Dallas/Indy picks and get into position to "beat the prick", I'll hedge the Sunday night game. I wish I'd done that last weekend in the same position needing Houston to cover against Seattle. I like Denver getting points against an unproven team, but this could be a Giant statement game. I'm somewhat uneasy about this one. GL with your picks!

[Razz]

Awesome, Razz. You must have some kind of awesome sports package through your cable/satellite provider. I'm mostly stuck to watching national/regional games. I think next year, I've gotta look into getting NFL Sunday ticket. I'm an absolute NFL whore, and I'd just keep watching NFL games over and over if I could. Thanks for the info, sounds like you are a real pro.

As for the NFL games this weekend, I am chomping at the bit. I'm done analyzing the games, it's just time to see how they play out. My 3 big plays are in direct opposite to the way you are picking, so I'll post here on Monday, especially if I am wrong. You could be right about the Denver-NYG game. If I score with my Dallas/Indy picks and get into position to "beat the prick", I'll hedge the Sunday night game. I wish I'd done that last weekend in the same position needing Houston to cover against Seattle. I like Denver getting points against an unproven team, but this could be a Giant statement game. I'm somewhat uneasy about this one. GL with your picks!

Thanks slacker. In case you hadn't heard, J. Jones has been downgraded to not expected to play.

[slacker00]

Yeah, I listen to the Parcells daily press conferences every day, so I know the deal. Not having Jones in the lineup is a definite hit, but it's my only main concern. They are missing Adams and Crayton as well, but I think Price will make us forget about Crayton fairly quickly, and for Adams, I am fairly confident that Tucker will be a workable replacement. Torrin Tucker started 13 games for the Cowboys last season, and he seems fairly solid. Running back is a concern for the Cowboys, but I'm optimistic that Parcells will figure something out. Last week he went mostly with Thomas, who had two 1,000 rushing seasons with the Bears. Marion Barber and Tyson Thompson are two rookies with good potential, which I like a lot. Thing is, Parcells would rather go with a "known commodity" and is reluctant to play these two rookies heavily, especially Thompson. But, if the Cowboys jump out to a decent lead, I think Parcells will gamble with Thompson more, trying to put the game away. Even more, I don't think Jones had the spark this year that he showed at the end of last season. I am suspicious that he has another nagging injury that he is hiding. I made my pick, taking the Cowboys ATS and ML, knowing that Jones wouldn't be a factor.

[Razz]

I added the Texans as a 1*.

Did anyone see the Wyoming game today? Probably the most disheartening non-cover for a team I've bet on since Oklahoma -29 vs. Nebraska last year (the game they were up 30-0, and Nebraska busted a 40 yard run, spiked the ball, and kicked a field goal on the last play).

[BuddyBear]

I added the Texans as a 1*.

Did anyone see the Wyoming game today? Probably the most disheartening non-cover for a team I've bet on since Oklahoma -29 vs. Nebraska last year (the game they were up 30-0, and Nebraska busted a 40 yard run, spiked the ball, and kicked a field goal on the last play).

Didn't see it...what happened in that Wyoming game Razz?

[Razz]

Would rather not go in depth too much, but I could probably write a 5-page diatribe about it. The long and short is that Wyoming committed 5 turnovers to CSU's 1, and Colorado St., up 33-31, still had to throw a 35-yard TD pass (circus catch, of course - it looked like it went off the defender's back) on 4th and 7 with a couple minutes left just to cover.

[thref23]

well man, turns out we were both wrong about Nebraska today.

and Ball State. Ball State killed me. That was one of the three-five plays I felt damn sure about for some reason, and I placed decent money (by my standards) on a few parlays and teasers. Ball State was the only game of my top 5 I lost. Sucks more cause there was a really bad call, off of replay, in the 4th qtr that stopped Ball St from being in really good position to comeback and beat the spread

well tomorrow's tomorrow. can't win em all

[Razz]

Yeah, Missouri's offense finally breaks through, and it's against the second best defense they've played all year. Oh well.

Don't know if you saw the game, but we still had a chance to go up 31-24 late in the third, but a WR fumbled inside the 5, and Missouri went down and took the 31-24 lead.

As for Ball St., if you told me they would score 21 points, I would have certainly expected a cover. I didn't get to watch that game though.