What do you think about this pick?

[RageWizard]

Hey people,

I'm lovin the Mia/Chi Over 37.5 (EV) at Pinnacle.

Chicago has not been held under 30 points at home this year and I figure that Miami's offense will put up 21 points (14 being for Chicago). Chicago's offense is makin' big plays at home and Miami's defense is giving them away like halloweeen candy.

I've been monitoring the line at Pinnacle, and it keeps going down like Paris Hilton in a grainy hotel video. Please if you have any reasonable thoughts for not taking the over please post before I put up the bucks.

[bigboydan]

I don't know if I could trust Miami scoring a single point in this game. With that being said, I'm not sure if the Bears can go over this total by themselves.

[Dougoudou]

I have no idea how to contrust a fair line, but if we assume the oddsmaker is relying mostly on the numbers of these teams, I sure know Chicago have been scoring way more points than they should. This is a great team but not even close to a top-5 offense. And right now they rank like fist in pts scored. So, i can't get excited about it.