Guaranteed profit on Bears prop?

[lid73]

Currently the prop for Bears to go undefeated (reg season) is at +1215 or so. The Bears have 10 games left in the season. I believe that they will be heavy favorites for every game that they play from here on out. I can see +400 or even +500 for the opposing team.

I have placed 1 unit on the Bears to go undefeated.

By selectively betting the ML for 1 unit on games that the bears may be in danger, I feel like I can hedge this well.

Don't you see value in taking this prop at this time?

[bigboydan]

They will not go undefeated this year. I feel it's a suckers bet to bet on them going undefeated IMO

[JDK192]

Looking at their schedule I don't think its gonna work out the way you have planned. They could be 8-0 going to NYG and won't be more than a 3-3.5 pt favorite (translates to +145 to +170 money line depending). If they get by that they could be 10-0 going into Foxboro and that game could be around pk depending on how NE plays until them. If they get to the point where they are 10-0 I'd say let it ride, but I don't think they will win their next 4.

[Justin7]

I like the no at almost any price.

One thing to remember... Chicago won't be favored in its last road game of the year, if they have locked up the division/conference.

[bigboydan]

Your absolutely correct Justin.

After they lock up home field thru out the playoff, you know they will sit there starters to protect them from injury. If the Colts didn't do it last year, I highly doubt the Bears will do it this year.

[Razz]

Looking at their schedule I don't think its gonna work out the way you have planned. They could be 8-0 going to NYG and won't be more than a 3-3.5 pt favorite (translates to +145 to +170 money line depending). If they get by that they could be 10-0 going into Foxboro and that game could be around pk depending on how NE plays until them. If they get to the point where they are 10-0 I'd say let it ride, but I don't think they will win their next 4.

Exactly. Actually the Giants might be favored in that game depending on what they do the next few weeks.

[nosuzieno]

math not my strong suit especially when it comes to hedging props, but to "guarantee" profit, assuming a +400Ml (which is optimistic) on the dog, it would seem, you would have to bet let's say .5 unit game one
so, gm 1: Bears win, -.5 units, Bears lose +1 net unit
gm 2: (-.5) Bet .5: Bears win, down 1 unit, Bears lose +.5 net
gm 3: (-1) bet 1, Bears win down 2 units, bears lose, +3 net
gm 4: (-2) bet 3, Bears win down 5 units, bears lose, +10net
gm 5: (-5) bet 4, bears win down 10 units, bears lose +11 net
gm 6: (-10) bet 3, bears win down 13, bears lose +1 net
gm 7: (-13) bet 4, bears win, down 17, bears lose +2 net
gm 8: (-17) bet 5, bears win down 22, bears lose +2 net
gm 9: (-22) bet 5, bears win down 27, bears lose +2 net
gm 10-27) Now what? Bears win, 12 units on prop, but ya got that -27 units so leaving the game alone means you lose either 15 or 28 units..betting on opponent has to be at least 7units to cover 27 you are down plus prop. Bears win, -22 units, bears lose you push...My math could be way off, but i came up with the above rather quickly. Also, no way they will be favored at +400 the rest of season. Best value seems to be bears losing in gm's three or four, but probably cheaper way to cash than this. I do not see any "guaranteed" money here, although if you pick your spots selectively as you suggested, you obviously want to do it early before prop loses. Had fun playing with the numbers...Good luck~~~