imgv94 NFL Week 7 Plays/Writeups YTD: 48-36 +14.40 Units

bigboydan · 10-17-06, 10:56 PM

I'm not saying your wrong about this one bro. However, this line just doesn't look right to me at all. I can't make a really strong case for Atlanta, and i'm not sold on the Steelers being back to there old form just yet after 1 good game.

I hope you win this one though bud, but i'm passing on this game myself.

bmac · 10-18-06, 08:07 AM

I will be waiting to see what this line does and will probably pass on this one because i am making fewer wagers this week.
However now that Ben has the monkey off his back i see him playing much better for the rest of the year.
I DO also believe that he has been way over rated in the past.
The stealers D will be a threat to Vick.

Good luck to you.
thanks for the shout.... a positive supportive attitude is key for success.

Italia_NYC · 10-18-06, 08:36 AM

Yeah I don't know about this game bro. Given all the other games this week, this is a game I am least likely to bet. The Giants showed everyone last week what they already knew; stop Vick from running and the Falcons will lose. The Steelers had one good game and I am far from being sold on them.

nosuzieno · 10-18-06, 08:58 AM

win and travel vs. lose and stay home would be my concern, but pretty much a pick 'em. hmm. I think Abraham reinjured...GL!

imgv94 · 10-18-06, 02:33 PM

Guys do not worry about the Steelers being on the road. This team might even play better on the road. Remember last year they won 3 road playoff games in a row..

Again ATL bread and butter is running the ball and the Steelers defense is superb against the run.. GL gentleman!!

primo_skillz · 10-18-06, 06:28 PM

first of all, img thanks for the shoutout.

glad to see you have one of these threads open again.

i have had a disappointing week and am ready to make up for it.

on that note, i think steelers come in atl and win this game. not sure if it will be more than a fg at this point but like nosuzieno said its basically a PK. good luck with this play, bud! ill be playing it for 2 units as well.

imgv94 · 10-18-06, 06:36 PM

ADDING:

I hate betting all these road favs but I have to fade the Raiders here..

1* ARIZONA -3
Fading the Raiders here simple as that. I have seen every Raiders game this season and they are horrible. And I can't merit a wager on them until they show me they even deserve to be in the league. I realize Ariz is coming off a short week but I have to think they have enough pride to defeat the Lowly Raiders here.. Leinart is seeking his first win as a starting QB and I think he is hungry. Both teams are hungry but Ariz is alot better... Raiders fans aren't as loud as they usually are either.. Green should get fired if they lose..

primo_skillz · 10-18-06, 06:41 PM

Great Bet. Took them at the same line. Feel like they can easily win this game by at least a TD. They are not capable of closing out games as shown by the last 2 weeks, but KC and CHI are much better than the lowly raiders. They dont have the players to make the big plays.

imgv94 · 10-18-06, 07:01 PM

ADDING:

2* 6.5 pt TEASER
Indy -2.5
Seattle PK

josebla89 · 10-18-06, 10:11 PM

Hey Img I Think You Can Get More Value Out Of Some Other Games. I Think Minny Has A Shot At Beating Seattle. I'm Not Saying They Wont Win But Compare These To Which Is More Appealing? Seattle Pick Or Carolina +10 Against A Cincy Team With A Messed Up O-line. Carolina Is Rolling Now With Steve Smith. Just My Two Cents Good Luck

imgv94 · 10-19-06, 02:28 PM

I don't know, Carolina winning two in a row on the road??

josebla89 · 10-19-06, 11:51 PM

remind me again whom did steve smith make look very ordinary
reed and mcalister two of the best db's in the league. Cincys secondary is ok but its not gonna hold up. Julius peppers is dominating. Cinncy also has a shuffled up O-line um... if they win its by a late fg if.

josebla89 · 10-19-06, 11:53 PM

The Bengals are 6-15-1 ATS their last 22 home games.

Carolina is 16-8 SU, 19-4-1 ATS its last 24 as a dog!

josebla89 · 10-19-06, 11:54 PM

Do i really need to same more? How can you not like carolina here?

imgv94 · 10-19-06, 11:57 PM

Bro I am going to hit some of that +3.5 just cause of you're confidence bro.. You might be right about one thing, Carolina is going better than the Bengals right now..

Thanks partner!!!

josebla89 · 10-20-06, 12:08 AM

oh yeah another pick you might want to consider in a teaser is the browns. they suck on the road but play you really tough at home remember when they played the ravens? i think they only lost by 1 point

josebla89 · 10-20-06, 12:10 AM

have you ever done a 4 team 13pt teaser i hit two of them last week

imgv94 · 10-20-06, 03:41 AM

Jose my man here ya go!!!

ADDING:

1.5* Carolina +3.5 -120
Carolina has won 4 in a row-Cincy has lost 2 in a row.. Right now at this point of the season it seems the Panthers are better. Here is a key reason as to why the Bengals have struggled in their last few games

Rushing yards given up by Bengals defense
9/24 Steelers 170
10/1 New England 236
10/15 Tampa Bay 126

Rushing yards gained by Bengals offense
9/24 Steelers 87
10/1 New England 71
10/15 Tampa Bay 53

Obviously something is very very wrong here.. Carolina has a great run defense that hasn't given up over 91 yards in 4 games and seems to be on the improve.. KEY KEY FACTORS MENTIONED HERE...

The Panthers should keep this game close and might even win it.. The Bengals are not going good right now and will not win without establishing a running game and Carolina is not the team to start successfully run against..
I like the Panthers here and hopefully you do as well...

imgv94 · 10-20-06, 04:24 AM

1* Indy -6 +102 (1st Half)
I like the Colts to have at least a TD @ Halftime. Manning and the Colts have had 2 weeks to prepare for this and will try to have this game won by halftime IMO so they can be even more prepared for the "HUGE" game vs Denver next week. Washington is horrible and won't be able to keep up with the rested better home team here... Colts 17 Redskins 3 at halftime.. Keep in mind that the Redskins failed to score an offensive TD in road games vs Dallas and NYG.. I like this wager..

nosuzieno · 10-20-06, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

1* Indy -6 +102 (1st Half)
I like the Colts to have at least a TD @ Halftime. Manning and the Colts have had 2 weeks to prepare for this and will try to have this game won by halftime IMO so they can be even more prepared for the "HUGE" game vs Denver next week. Washington is horrible and won't be able to keep up with the rested better home team here... Colts 17 Redskins 3 at halftime.. Keep in mind that the Redskins failed to score an offensive TD in road games vs Dallas and NYG.. I like this wager..

after blistering starts against giants and texans, colts slow out of gates in last three: 1) 7-7 v Jags; 2) 14-14 v jets; 3) 0-10 v titans...It seems to me my hometown boys are doing just enough to win this year, but maybe those results will play in your favor, that they won't want to wait til 4th quarter against a very handleable skins squad... gl!

scottyy11 · 10-20-06, 12:39 PM

with you on steelers got it at -1, you have any opinion on the browns at home?

Siuman · 10-20-06, 12:53 PM

I have been looking at this Denver/Cleve game all day and the only thing I can feel comfortable with is the under. I might take Cleve and the points. Let me know your thoughts! Thanks Guys

imgv94 · 10-20-06, 08:07 PM

ADDING:

2* 3 Team 10 point Teaser
JAX -1
INDY PK
PITT +7.5

Looks solid boyeeeeeeeeee!!!

imgv94 · 10-20-06, 08:07 PM

ADDING:

1.5* NY JETS -3.5 -104
The Lions are garbage this year barely won their first game big deal it was @ Home vs the Bills oooh.. Bills are complete shit so are the Lions. The Jets aren't complete shit and should win this @ Home.. All I hope is the Jets win by more than 3.. I just don't see how Det can put together two in a row.. My father and ACE have this game as their game of the year as well so I have to follow.. Hopefully Piece of shit Detroit don't get all the breaks and somehow win this one or cover good luck!!!

imgv94 · 10-20-06, 08:16 PM

ADDING:

0.5* Teaser +105
NE -0.5
Sea -2

Checkerboard · 10-20-06, 09:27 PM

. . . I love the Jets pick imgv, with you all the way on this!

josebla89 · 10-20-06, 10:27 PM

Hey IMG i followed you on that dallas nhl pick but man what a way to cover lol

imgv94 · 10-21-06, 12:31 AM

Glad we cashed in that game Jose.. I went 2-2 even today LOL.. Better than losing..

Augustus · 10-21-06, 12:52 AM

Message deleted.

imgv94 · 10-21-06, 12:55 AM

Yeah but this is Detroit bro... A whole different story..

Checkerboard · 10-21-06, 08:23 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

Yeah but this is Detroit bro... A whole different story..

One thing here is DET QB passer rating vs NYJ secondary . . .
just to play devil's advocate as I actually like NYJ.

imgv, please, when you hav a second, gimme a score here for this matchup, what d'you see the final score as here?

nosuzieno · 10-21-06, 08:40 AM

Good point Augustus, remember playing against the Jets after the fish as far back as the 80's...Cashed in with them last week but two in a row as favs would be pressing my luck...Detroit looked decent on road v Minn and St Louis. have to stay away but gl, imgv~

Checkerboard · 10-21-06, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by Augustus

At home after playing division rival Miami, New York has been an automatic play against posting a dismal 7-14 SU and 5-14-2 ATS (26.32 percent) record.

Road Underdogs of 3.5 or more that have a bye week the following week and their opponent is not off a road win are 24-3 ATS (88.89 percent) since 2000.

Good stuff Augustus!

LOL . . . IMHO 'capping includes a balance of statistical and gut input. I believe 'capping works best not when it is either/or (100% stat or 100% gut) and also not when not 50/50 (that is 50 stat/ 50 gut) I think the best 'cappers tend to be 70/30 either way. That is to say, they have a dominant and a sub-dominant governing character. It kind of sets up two sub-species of 'cappers. There's the 70 gut or intuition offset with 30 stat type and then there's the 70 stat back-pressured by 30 gut type. I believe it works well either way but the mix should be in line with the nature of the 'capper, who can then foster their sub-dominant side. Also, being aware of my mix helps me understand my tendencies ~ thereby strengthening my overall governing intuition. In short, I become a better editor, playing fewer units and increasing my winning percentage. Being aware of my mix also helps me
'shop' more intelligently for group conscience info on this forum.

The only reason I bring any of this up is because I got a chuckle out of how you threw up those fine stats on this
NYJ vs DET matchup and imgv then says yeah but we're
talking about DET here . . . LOL. That exchange is a fine
example of how this forum can work so well for all of us!
Keep up the fine input & GL this weekend . . .

McBa1n · 10-21-06, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

Guys do not worry about the Steelers being on the road. This team might even play better on the road. Remember last year they won 3 road playoff games in a row..

Again ATL bread and butter is running the ball and the Steelers defense is superb against the run.. GL gentleman!!

I actually like the play - but I don't like the logic.
You CANNOT look at how Atlanta pounds the rock... They WILL get their ground yards, because that's what they do. Pitt's D is designed to stop a RB, not a mobile QB.

Now, Vick is a pretty crappy passer, how good is Pitt's ability to take away down the ball down the field and push up on the flats? (I think they're as good a scheme to handle those 2 things as any team in the NFL).

Pitt has some momentum. I don't love the play... But I have a gut feeling they get it done. Atlanta is better than I thought this year, even though they blew it against NY last week. Abraham, IMO, is the one guy, when healthy, that I don't think I can bet against... He's not back "all the way" from injury. That D is pretty banged up, also.

Atlanta losing a starting O Lineman doesn't help them much, either.

I think a secret key to Pitt getting it done this week is Najeh Davenport. The more this guy plays (and stays healthy), the more Pitt is going to love him. He is a VERY talented "in your face" big back with some great speed... When he's hurt, though, he can't cut for anything. I think he's close to being as good as he'll get, as he's always hurt due to his running technique/high pad level.

Again, this is all gut, the signs point to Pitt... And I'm not sure Atlanta is good enough to even be a playoff team unless they have all hands on deck and healthy. But when they're healthy, and Vick makes some plays in the passing game, they're as good a team as any in the NFL (not just NFC).

I can't believe Vick is going to have success throwing the ball, at all... And he will need to at some point. Atlanta will easily run for 140-150 yards MINIMUM, you just can't stop them. There is no defense that can shut that running game down. If Pitt can contain it, they'll walk.

One final bruise on Atlanta's D, IMO, is while they have some incredible talent - just incredible (2 elite players and a couple of VERY solid playmakers), they still seem to be lacking chemistry. Also, their D Coordinator is the wrong guy for that unit.