Ravens -3.5

John Galt1 · 10-09-06, 04:18 PM

i wouldnt do it

Jay Edgar · 10-09-06, 04:27 PM

The 33-point total (which seems right to me) would scare me off of the 3.5 here, even at +350. And I like the Ravens.

bigboydan · 10-09-06, 04:45 PM

The weather conditions in tonights game makes it really tough to take the over in this game.

sjelveh · 10-09-06, 04:50 PM

if i could get it at 3 i would do it but you guys are right 3.5 is too big of a risk

bigboydan · 10-09-06, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by sjelveh

if i could get it at 3 i would do it but you guys are right 3.5 is too big of a risk

I think people put too much of an emphasis on that 1/2 point. You have to look at the percentages on just how many times that 1/2 point really matters in a game. Take the Chargers/Steelers game last night for example. I think alot of people were boggled by the 1/2 point last night, and that didnt matter in that game.

sjelveh · 10-09-06, 05:28 PM

i think it depends on the game, i think in this game it comes into play two good fg kickers two good defenses alot of running bad weather seems like a fg type game to me.

Jay Edgar · 10-09-06, 05:33 PM

I'd be very interested in a study of margin of victory by road teams pulling the upset. Instinct tells me the "3" is maybe slightly less important than it is when the favorite wins, but only slightly.

And in a game where the O/U was 48 or so, I'd be less concerned about the hook -- again only slightly.

rolemand · 10-09-06, 06:05 PM

why not take Bal -2.5 +265

sjelveh · 10-09-06, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by rolemand

why not take Bal -2.5 +265

what book did you get that at i was just going off pinny alt lines

rolemand · 10-09-06, 06:15 PM

5 dimes has the best "juice" at that line

sjelveh · 10-09-06, 06:19 PM

thanks don't use 5 dimes i will ck them out

Jay Edgar · 10-09-06, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by rolemand

why not take Bal -2.5 +265

Is +265 enough of an upgrade over the +225 ML to risk a 1 or 2 pt win in a heavy FG game?

This is where actual mathematical aptitude would be nice.

rm18 · 10-09-06, 06:54 PM

I would say -2.5 +265 is better than the ML, in most games but not this one, Batimore kicks a lot of FG's, 12-10 would be a likely final if they win, but I do not give them much of a chance at all.

Last year Denver was 8-0 at home, and Baltimore was 0-8 on the road, bad weather also favors Denver .

AC1318 · 10-09-06, 07:16 PM

Forget baltimore ML
FORGET THE TEASERS WITH UNDER
STRAIGHT UP DENVER LAY THE MONEY-220
IT IS GREAT TO GET ODDS ON A DOG BUT MUCH BETTER WHEN THE DOG IS HOME
DENVER -220 ML

ivyconniver · 10-09-06, 07:39 PM

no thanks on the -220